Here in the Bay Area we have been privy to some of the most ignorant collection of debates as they relate to Alex Smith over the past eight years. There are some who wanted to blame him for the entire mess that the San Francisco 49ers found themselves in prior to the Jim Harbaugh era in 2011. There were others who gave Smith a pass because of inconsistency on the coaching staff, injuries and lackluster talent surrounding him. There were then some that stood somewhere in the middle.
That debate didn't end when Smith led San Francisco to the NFC Championship game two years ago. Skeptics quickly concluded that Smith was just riding the coattails of a stout defense and running game. On the other side of the fence, supporters pointed to his performance against Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints in the NFC Divisional Playoffs as a marker for his turn around in San Francisco.
Those debates quickly subsided when Smith went down with a concussion against the St. Louis Rams last October and was replaced by Colin Kaepernick, who proceeded to lead San Francisco to a conference title.
Within a month of the Super Bowl, Smith was sent packing to Kansas City to be the Chiefs new "franchise" quarterback. I hope fans in Missouri are prepared for the same divisive arguments as we had in San Francisco since 2005.
The good news here is that argument will not take place in this article. Instead, I am going to take a look at where Smith stands from solely a fantasy football perspective. My eng game, conclusion if you will, should surprise the masses.
According to FF Toolbox, Smith is the 28th quarterback off the boards in standard redrafts this offseason. To put that into perspective, he is being selected after the likes of EJ Manuel, Geno Smith and Carson Palmer.
This despite the fact that Smith was a QB1 option in 12-team standard one-quarterback leagues in four of his first seven starts prior to being injured against St. Louis in Week 10. His 14.5 points per start in 2012 wasn't QB1 numbers, but he did wonders stepping in for me on a micro level against the Bufffalo Bills in a ridiculous 29.02-point performance against Buffalo in Week 5.
Smith practically finished up his San Francisco career with a solid three-touchdown performance against Arizona in Week 8. He won NFC Offensive Player of the Week and finished the game with one single incompleted pass.
Here is where Smith stacked up against quarterback options in his final full season as the starter in San Francisco (2011).
I am definitely not recommending that you select Smith over Romo or Ryan in your upcoming drafts. That would be utterly foolish. Instead, there is something to be said about getting a solid bottom-tier QB1/QB2 option later in the draft while focusing on other positions early on. After all, Smith's final 2011 fantasy stats had him as the No. 14 overall fantasy quarterback in standard leagues.
At the very least, he will be a solid backup option in case your quarterback goes down or when he is on a bye.
According to Fantasy Fooball Toolbox, Smith's ADP (average draft position) is at 218.53. This means that he is going at the start of the 18th round in standard 12-team leagues.
Why not take a chance on him that late in the draft and see what he can do for a talent-laden Kansas City Chiefs offense early on in 2013. There is no reason to believe Smith will ever be a viable QB1 option, but he can be among the best backup options while providing you a tremendous amount of value in later rounds.
Think about this for a second.
The difference of 3.83 fantasy points per outing between Ryan and Smith back in 2011 indicates a major difference in terms of where each quarterback is slotted to go in upcoming draft and their overall fantasy production. Atlanta's starting quarterback's ADP is 54.22. In reality, an argument could be made that one should go with Smith and another marginal fantasy quarterback option as his/her starter heading into 2013, while completely stacking other positions where the drop off between 54 and 218 in terms of production.
A prime example of this would be the running back position.
Arian Foster's ADP is currently 4.70, while a few slots below David Wilson's ADP is sitting at 30.41. The difference between each running back in terms of average weekly fantasy output was a ridiculous 12.2 points last season.
If you are one that buys into the strategy of going running back early and often, why not pick up a Foster or Ray Rice in the first round, nab a Chris Johnson in the third round and then look to fill holes on your roster outside of the position you selected in the second? This gives you two RB1 options on your roster, fills holes at certain positions and enables you to go quarterback much later in the draft.
Based on ADP, lets take a look at how a possible mock draft would work with Smith being relied on as a back-end QB1 option. For the purposes of this point, I am going to pretend I am slotted with the fourth overall pick in a 12-team league. Again, this wouldn't be my ideal draft. It's all about giving you an indication of how a roster would look under this philosophy.
Before you call me out for drafting defense/special teams before quarterback, this "mock draft" was based solely on where each player stood in terms of ADP. Drafting Smith or even Eli Manning before Seattle's D/ST would have been a much larger reach.
As it is, I am pretty sure you get the point here. There is something to be said about waiting until the last possible moment to nab a quarterback. Will my hypothetical combination of Manning and Smith out-perform the likes of Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady? Of course not, that's isn't what I am going for.
Instead, the combination of Rice/Gore/Ballard/Bernard/Jackson would likely be the best running back unit in my league. Meanwhile, having three WR1 options would cement my status as a contender for the title.
This specific mock was based on waiting for Smith in the latter rounds. You could easily follow the philosophy of going mid-round at quarterback with someone like Colin Kaepernick (should he be there) and still picking Smith up as a great QB2 option in one-quarterback leagues.
Without making a long story longer, the perception that Smith shouldn't be on the radar of fantasy football owners just doesn't meet reality. In standard re-draft leagues, Smith is as viable of an option as Eli, Joe Flacco, Ben Roethlisberger and many other quarerbacks who have ADP's nearly 100 spots higher than Smith. Of course, this all depends on how you fill the roster out at other positions.
Remember, you heard it here first.