As far as running backs went in Week 3, it was a good week for fantasy football.
Twenty one backs scored over double-digit fantasy points, according to our stats. Backups even had their time for owners who had an injured back. Jason Snelling finished sixth among running backs filling in for Steven Jackson on the Falcons, and Joique Bell had over 120 total yards and a touchdown while playing in place of Reggie Bush for Detroit.
For the top five backs this week, health shouldn’t be much of a problem and their matchups are prime for big points in Week 4.
1. Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings
Every week Peterson seems to be at the top of everyone’s rankings, but he is the third-best running back in the NFL in terms of fantasy points at this point in the year, and ranking him this high is essentially due to his high potential to score at least one touchdown. Peterson has three touchdowns in three games, and has even picked up a receiving touchdown.
He’ll be in an entirely different country in Week 4, but that doesn’t mean he’ll production will suffer, especially against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Pittsburgh is making an argument for the worst team in the league, and are allowing an average of over one rushing touchdown per game to opponents. If Minnesota can get up early in this game, Peterson should have his best game yet. In the second half of games this year, he is only averaging 2.8 yards per carry, according to ESPN, mainly because the Vikings are always playing catch-up to their opponents. But the Vikings should pick up their first win of the year this week and Peterson will excel on a team that’s actually ahead in a game.
Projected Statistics: 26 carries, 100 yards, two touchdowns
2. Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs
Charles has turned out to be far more effective than some of the other dual-threat running backs who went higher than him in fantasy drafts, especially C.J. Spiller. Charles has been targeted by quarterback Alex Smith 24 times, and has averaged 8.4 yards per reception while putting up 4.3 yards per carry on the ground. The New York Giants, like the Steelers, are starting to be discussed for one of the more disappointing teams in the league.
New York is 27th in the league in rush defense, and in Week 1 against the Dallas Cowboys DeMarco Murray had eight catches. Expect a similar number of receptions out of Charles especially with the diminished role of Dwayne Bowe in the offense, and at least 90 yards on the ground.
Projected Statistics: 16 carries, 85 yards, seven receptions, 60 yards, one receiving touchdown
3. Matt Forte, Chicago Bears
Facing off against the defense who allows the second-most fantasy points to opposing running backs in Week 4, Forte will be a top five back in Week 4 against the Detroit Lions. Forte has had at least 20 touches in every game this season, his lowest point on Sunday night against the Steelers. His production could have been much higher had he not missed several plays while getting his foot taped on the sideline.
Although he only has two total touchdowns in three games, Forte surpassed 100 total yards against Pittsburgh and the Lions have allowed just over 45 receiving yards per game to opposing running backs. Forte won’t break 100 yards on the ground this week, but he’ll find his way into the end zone and will be huge in PPR leagues.
Projected Statistics: 17 carries, 80 yards, one touchdown, six receptions, 40 receiving yards
4. LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia Eagles
McCoy has been the best fantasy running back this season, but won’t reach the top spot this week going up against the Denver Broncos. Philadelphia’s defense hasn’t been able to stop anything, and Michael Vick will have to throw the ball more frequently in the second half to his receivers to try to keep up with Denver’s high-powered offense. The Broncos have allowed an average of two total touchdowns to opposing running backs, but have only given up 30 rushing yards.
If McCoy can’t get into the end zone, his value will plummet this week and he surprisingly has only caught six passes this season. You’re obviously not starting McCoy this week just because of the defense he’s facing, but don’t expect him to be the No. 1 back this week.
Projected Statistics: 12 carries, 50 yards, three receptions, 60 yards, one receiving touchdown
5. Alfred Morris, Washington Redskins
Washington’s offense has been struggling all year, but Morris has a chance to break 100 yards for the second time this year. Oakland has played surprisingly well against running backs, and has only allowed one rushing touchdown all year. However, Morris has scored a touchdown in two out of his three games this year and have played against the Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars and Denver Broncos. All three of those teams have struggled running the ball this season (the Colts didn’t have Trent Richardson when they played the Raiders in Week 1) or have used a running back by-committee strategy.
Morris is the go-to guy in the Redskins offense, so seeing the low sum of fantasy points the Raiders have given up to rushers shouldn’t drive off owners from being optimistic about Morris’s week. With injuries to Reggie Bush and C.J. Spiller, and Doug Martin and Marshawn Lynch facing strong rush defenses this week, Morris makes it into the top five.
Projected Statistics: 18 carries, 100 yards, one touchdown