All fantasy owners perceive the word “sleeper” differently. Some see it as a great opportunity to be handed a top-20 guy at his position in the late rounds of a draft while taking advantage of other owners in their league who either didn’t do their homework or aren’t looking deep enough.
But then there are the other owners who see “sleeper” as too vague of a term. It varies based upon the scoring rules in each league, and how many teams are in the league. For this instance, let’s just consider sleepers who, in standard redraft leagues, can be found late in drafts, but either have a high ceiling for their year, or they are more consistent than their average draft position would show.
Although some position battles haven’t had time to play out, these are four good early sleepers to look at to potentially have great value late in drafts, put in order of the likelihood that that player will turn out to be a quality sleeper pick.
4. Aaron Dobson, Wide Receiver, New England Patriots
Most fantasy owners will try to steer clear of Dobson in drafts this summer because of high he went as a rookie in drafts last year. All-in-all, Dobson’s rookie campaign was disappointing.
But don’t let that discourage you from taking him as a WR3 or a low-end flex play with solid flex upside. FantasyPros’ average ADP has Dobson going in drafts as the No. 62 receiver, or 171 overall. In 10-team leagues, that might leave him out of the draft entirely.
Although Dobson was 50th among receivers last season in our consistency metric (paid subscription required), he’s in good position to have a bounce-back year, and he’d be a perfect candidate to be your last pick before taking a kicker.
Dobson missed five games with a foot injury, and he was never effective in the two games after he returned. Still, on the year, he averaged 14 yards per catch and he had one game in Week 9 against the Pittsburgh Steelers when he recorded 130 yards and two touchdowns.
Tom Brady had his lowest touchdown total since 2006, so we can expect him to go get back to somewhere around 28 or 30 touchdowns this season (I still think Brady has three solid years left in the tank). Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski are the only two solid targets for Brady, and there’s no reason why Dobson can’t be a big-play guy in New England’s offense.
3. Terrance West, Running Back, Cleveland Browns
There’s no consistency metrics to back West up because he’s a rookie, but he could end up being Cleveland’s go-to back by season’s end. Although Ben Tate is confident that no other Browns’ back can challenge him for the starting job, Tate has never played in all 16 games in a season.
At some point this year, Tate is going to miss time, and West has the ability to step in and take over that job. Even if he never starts a game all season, West will get major touches in Cleveland’s offense.
With Josh Gordon seemingly gone for the season, and the only other legitimate receiving options being the oft-injured Miles Austin and tight end Jordan Cameron, the Browns will look to run the ball frequently and rely on their defense to win games.
Although West doesn’t have experience against a high level of talent (he played his college ball at Towson in the FCS), you can’t argue with his numbers. In his final year at Towson, West had 2,509 yards, averaging just over six yards per carry, and 41 touchdowns. His hands aren’t amazing, but he still has the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield as well.
His ADP has him as the No. 36 running back and outside the top 100 players, but West certainly has RB2 upside with Tate’s injury history.
2. Jerricho Cotchery, Wide Receiver, Carolina Panthers
Guess who was a more consistent receiver last year than Eric Decker, Andre Johnson and Anquan Boldin. Jerricho Cotchery, that’s who. Believe it or not, Cotchery had eight games last year when he either scored a touchdown or went for 100 yards, and was the 12th most consistent receiver.
Although Cotchery is no longer in Pittsburgh, he could arguably receive more targets in Carolina. The Panthers drafted Kelvin Benjamin to be the No. 1 receiver in their offense, but Benjamin is still a raw player. He has a lot of athleticism, but frankly can’t catch.
Carolina isn’t a good passing team by any stretch, but Cotchery could see 80 or more targets because of the lack of other options. Cotchery’s 10 touchdowns last year is an outlier, and he won’t reach that number again, but being drafted as the 53rd wide receiver, he’s a lock to finish with more fantasy points than players such as Sidney Rice and Marvin Jones who are going ahead of him, putting him in position to be an every-week flex play.
1. Andy Dalton, Quarterback, Cincinnati Bengals
On a strict name-only basis, Dalton isn’t a sleeper. Every fantasy player knows him. But, in ADP, he’s on the verge of going undrafted in 10-team leagues.
His ADP right now is the 17th quarterback, and the 128th overall player, in the same tier as Alex Smith and Ryan Tannehill. Dalton will be available in the 12th or 13th round of standard drafts, but he can surprise owners this year and be a top 12 fantasy quarterback.
Dalton was the third most consistent quarterback last season behind only Peyton Manning and Drew Brees, with a consistency rating of 75 percent. He had 10 games of 300 or more passing yards, and he had two or more touchdowns in 11 of his games.
His value was driven down because of a few dud games (he had three games of no touchdowns) but in each of his first three seasons in the league, Dalton has improved. In both of his years since his rookie campaign, his touchdown total went up by seven, and then six, throwing 33 last season.
Could Dalton lose fantasy owners some games? Yes, if he has those terrible games again. But if he is able to play just slightly more consistent, Dalton could easily be a better fantasy quarterback than Russell Wilson or Tony Romo, especially with A.J. Green improving each season.
Dalton is going far too low in drafts right now, and the interception total will scare a lot of others off, which makes him a perfect fantasy sleeper.