1. San Francisco 49ers
Some want to point to San Francisco's losses in free agency, but those were players, who for the most part, can be replaced in the draft. General manager Trent Baalke doesn't overpay for role players. Instead, he allows lesser teams to falsely judge them as key core players. Isaac Sopoaga and Ricky Jean-Francois are key examples.
San Francisco did go out there and make two really good acquisitions. Picking up Anquan Boldin for a sixth-round pick borders on highway robbery. He now joins Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis to form one hell of a receiving tandem for up-and-coming quarterback Colin Kaepernick. I dare any defense to be able to stop that trio in the red zone. The addition of Glenn Dorsey to either play the zero-tech or switch it up outside was pure genius, especially for the relatively small deal that he signed. San Francisco now has 14 picks, including five in the first three rounds, next month. It can fill the minor holes it has that way. The best roster, pound for pound, in the NFL.
2. Seattle Seahawks
You could easily put Seattle No. 1 here and not draw a complaint from me. Picking up the likes of Percy Harvin, Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril were what I consider luxary additions to an already loaded roster. Harvin gives Russell Wilson that dynamic all-around threat, both in the backfield and on the outside. While we now understand why Bennett came so cheap (rotator cuff injury) he should still be able to make an impact for Seattle in 2013. The addition of Avril is intriguing for a number of reasons. He will come in and replace Chris Clemons, who should miss a great deal of the '13 season with a torn ACL. Avril is a mild upgrade, but does tend to struggle against the run. As it relates to getting to the quarterback, Seattle now possessess the best 4-3 defensive line in the NFL.
Just a few short seasons after the NFC West was a laughingstock around the NFL, it boasts the two best teams in the league. Seattle's young core will be around for a great while, led by one of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL. Is 2013 the year it takes the next step?
3. Denver Broncos
Losing Elvis Dumervil hurts a great deal. Losing him to the AFC Champion Baltimore Ravens hurts a lot more. Though, I am pretty sure John Elway and Co. will find replacement(s) in the relatively near future. They have been linked to both John Abraham and Dwight Freeney. The acquisition of Louis Vasquez to play right guard is one of the most underrated moves of the offseason. The former San Diego Chargers' standout solidifies what has to be one of the better offensive lines in the NFL.
Of course I haven't even covered Wes Welker, who came to Denver on a ridiculously low two-year, $12 million deal. The ultra possession receiver will help form the best trio of wide receivers in the NFL with Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker. Just imagine opposing AFC West defenses attempting to stop that monster with Peyton Manning passing the ball all around the playground. Denver has the best team in the AFC, it's now all about actually putting it together and playing like that in January.
4. Atlanta Falcons
Man, the NFC is stacked. A team that went 13-3 and was inches away from winning the conference finds itself No. 3 in the conference in our initial power rankings of the offseason; imagine that. Atlanta did a great job in retaining key veterans such as: Sam Baker, Tony Gonzalez and William Moore. Though it is important to note that the release of Dunta Robinson coupled with the likely departure of Brent Grimes in free agency leaves a tremendous hole in the secondary. Atlanta will have to either go out there and find a veteran replacement or draft a corner early next month if it really wants to be among the best teams in the conference. As of right now, Robert McClain is penciled in as its starting right cornerback. I guess this is why we wait until the offseason is more than two weeks old before drawing conclusions.
The addition of Steven Jackson was absolutely huge here. He is an immediate upgrade over Michael Turner in the running game and provides Matt Ryan with the balance he needs on the offensive side of the ball to take the team to the next level. Atlanta is nearing a deal with Osi Umenyiora after releasing John Abraham earlier in the offseason. That seems like a bit of a wash to me. It still needs to find depth along the defensive line and more talent at linebacker. As it is, the Falcons are still one of the best teams in the NFL and have had a solid offseason to date.
5. Green Bay Packers
Packers' fans might be getting a bit impatient with their lack of movement in free agency. While this could be true to an extent after they have been linked to both Michael Huff and Steven Jackson, it has been the M.O. of the organization to refrain from signing higher-profile free agents. Though, with the continued improvement of other teams in the NFC, Green Bay will have to ace the draft if it expects to be considered a top team in the conference.
As long as Mike McCarthy and company have Aaron Rodgers passing the rock around to four or five "elite" pass catchers, Green Bay will be in the thick of things. It must now start/continue building from the inside out. Needs include: tackle, defensive line and safety. If the Packers are successful addressing those areas, they will be in a good position.
6. New England Patriots
Sorry, but an injury-plagued Danny Amendola is not an upgrade over Wes Welker. I could care less if you look at the splits between Tom Brady and Sam Bradford in order to make a case for Amendola. It really doesn't matter a whole lot to me. Amendola might want to try playing in at least half of his teams games before being compared to one of the most productive receivers in the NFL. Outside of that, New England released Brandon Lloyd and has Rob Gronkowski on the mend. It will need to find a couple viable receiving options either via the draft or in free agency.
On the defensive side of the ball, New England seems to be in darn good shape. I don't think Adrian Wilson brings a lot to the table at his advanced age, but the likes of Alfonzo Dennard and Aqib Talib are solid at cornerback. Chandler Jones and Jerod Mayo lead what has to be considered one of the most underrated front sevens in the entire AFC. That being said, New England is no longer the cream of the crop in the conference; that title goes to the Denver Broncos.
7. Houston Texans
The difference between Matt Schaub and the two quarterbacks leading the teams listed about Houston in the AFC is just too vast. While Schaub can be a decent quarterback, he isn't a difference maker. As always, Houston's offense will run through Arian Foster, who could start to show signs of wear and tear after touching the ball over 1,100 times over the last three seasons. Andre Johnson also needs to find himself a running mate on the outside.
While Ed Reed was a solid pickup, I am not entirely too sure he is a major upgrade over Glover Quin at free safety. He will bring veteran leadership and a quarterbacking mentality to the secondary, but Reed's skills are definitely on the decline. A solid nucleus up front led by the best overall player in the NFL in the form of J.J. Watt is really what's going to make this defense click. As it is, I am not too sure Houston belongs in the conversation as a TRUE contender for the AFC Championship at this early point in the offseason.
8. Cincinnati Bengals
By default more than anything else, Cincinnati has clearly become the class of the AFC North. While both the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers continue to see their rosters get purged, Cincinnati has sat back and created one of the most talented young rosters in the NFL. We don't really need to speak to the skill-position players too much here, Cincinnati has those and then some. Instead, the focus should really be on what the Bengals have built at other important positions.
Depending on how the Andre Smith situation plays out, I absolutely love the Bengals' offensive line in front of Andy Dalton. Equally as important, they have one of the better 4-3 defensive lines in the entire NFL. Geno Atkins has to be considered one of the top three defensive tackles in the league with both Michael Johnson and Carlos Dunlap doing their things on the edge. In terms of depth, Cincinnati has that too with Devon Still, Domato Peko, Robert Geathers and Brandon Thompson. The Bengals will need to add a solid inside linebacker next to Vontaze Burfict as well as a true strong safety next to Reggie Nelson. Look for it to address those positions in the draft.
9. Washington Redskins
What a difference a year makes. At this point in 2012, Washington was easily considered one of the five worst teams in the entire NFL. Trading up for Robert Griffin III in the draft and adding a wide array of talent in latter rounds really did build something special here. Alfred Morris had one of the best rookie seasons for a running back in the history of the league and will only look to improve on it in 2013.
There are, however, major concerns on both sides of the ball. Can Pierre Garcon say healthy? Will Logan Paulsen ever be a viable tight end option for RGIII? What about the defense? I highly doubt that coordinator Jim Haslett can be too happy with the idea of starting Brandon Meriweather and Reed Doughty at safety, especially with the lackluster group of cornerbacks currently on Washington's roster. While still an up-and-coming team, Washington has a lot of holes to fill between now and April. The bad news is that it doesn't have the draft picks or salary-cap room to fill those holes with above-average players.
10. Baltimore Ravens
Ouch. The defending Super Bowl Champions are just barely in the top 10. I know, kick me now. I am not too bent out of shape over Baltimore's losses on the defensive side of the ball. Replacing Ed Reed, Dannell Ellerbe and Paul Kruger might be a bit difficult, but Ozzie Newsome really did put some work in by acquiring major talent at value later in the free-agency period. Chris Canty and Marcus Spears both fit the Ravens' system extremely well and came on the cheap. Meanwhile, Elvis Dumervil was an absolute coup. He fits betters as a 3-4 outside linebacker and will create some crazy mismatches with Terrell Suggs on the outside. Even Michael Huff might be an upgrade, at least in terms of pure coverage, over Reed.
It's the issues on offense that worry me to an extent. Anquan Boldin bailed Joe Flacco out more times than Lindsey Lohan's drug dealer. His mere presence on the football field made the likes of Torrey Smith, Ed Dickson and Dennis Pitta that much better. You don't replace that type of figure with Jacoby Jones, Tandon Doss or some rookie. In addition, it appears that Bryant McKinnie will be moving on from Baltimore. This pushes Michael Oher back to left tackle, a position that doesn't suit him well, and leaves an open competition at right tackle We already know how much Flacco struggles when facing pressure. Couple that with the absence of Boldin and you have major issues here.
11. Indianapolis Colts
While it is easy to say that Ryan Grigson and company overpaid for a multitude of free agents, they were able to fill some key holes on the defensive side of the ball. Ricky Jean-Francois is a solid rotational defensive lineman and can help create some more depth along the Colts' relatively new 3-4 scheme. The addition of Erik Walden, while puzzling for many reasons, also gives the Colts someone who has experience playing in this type of scheme.
I am more interested to see what Indianapolis does in the draft. This is going to be the way it builds, not in free agency. The issue here is that the Colts are missing some key picks due to trading for veterans. They only have three picks in the first five rounds. As it is, Indianapolis might have gotten too big for its britches in 2012. It still has a long way to go before being considered a serious conference championship contender.
12. St. Louis Rams
I bet you are surprised to see the Rams this high. While they did possess a five-win improvement from the previous season, the Rams still have a lot of holes to fiill in order to be considered true contenders with San Francisco and Seattle in the NFC West. They did, however, do a damn good job filling some slots this offseason in free agency. the acquisitions of Jake Long an Jared Cook helps an offense that will be vastly improved in the passing game next season. While the loss of Steven Jackson is worrisome, St. Louis has a couple solid young options at running back.
The big thing here is continued progression from youngsters and acing the first round of the NFL Draft next month with two selections. If Jeff Fisher and company are able to do that, St. Louis could surprise people and vie for one of the two wildcard spots in the NFC next season.
13. Chicago Bears
Color me unimpressed by the signing of Jermon Bushrod. He ranked out just above J'Marcus Webb in pass protection this past season and really struggled protecting Drew Brees with the Saints. I fully understand that general manager Phil Emery needed to get an "upgrade," but Bushrod is not the answer as Jay Cutler's blindside protector. The addition of Martellus Bennett really is going to help Cutler in the passing game as he attempts to go away from forcing the ball to Brandon Marshall.
Defensively is where I am more concerned. Now that Brian Urlacher will not return to The Windy City, Chicago will have to find a replacement for the future Hall of Fame linebacker. Sorry, but D.J. Williams really isn't going to get it done. On top of that, Chicago lost the underrated Nick Roach to the Oakland Raiders. This means that the Bears will have to fortify a suddenly weak linebacker group before it can even come close to thinking about contending with Green Bay in the division. Even if the Bears ace the draft, they are a borderline playoff team.
14. Minnesota Vikings
Speaking of borderline playoff teams, Minnesota did what it had to do by dealing Percy Harvin to the Seattle Seahawks. That trade sets it up really well with a first-round pick this year and a minimum of a third-round selection next season. In addition, it enabled the Vikings to go out there and sign Greg Jennings to what I consider a foolish five-year, $45 million contract. Despite being overpaid, Jennings will bring Christian Ponder a consistent receiving threat on the outside.
While I am going to want to see what Minnesota does with (2) first-round picks next month, it is hard to imagine this team being better than six other teams in the NFC. I full understand that the Vikings made a great run to the postseason behind an amazing performance from Adrian Peterson, but that seems to be their ceiling with the roster as it is currently assembled.
15. Pittsburgh Steelers
Could we be looking at a 10-loss Steelers team in 2013? I am not too entirely sure that is out of the question. The simple fact that Pittsburgh faces the possibility of losing Emmanuel Sanders in free agency because it wouldn't be able to match a contract for the former third-round pick must tell you what you need to know about its salary cap situation. As it is, the Steelers did end up losing the likes of Rashard Mendenhall, Casey Hamption, James Harrison and Mike Wallace in free agency. That's a lot of talent for a mediocre team to have to replace without being able to dive into the free-agent market. The balance of power surely has shifted from Pittsburgh and Baltimore to Cincinnati in the AFC North.
16. New York Giants
How the "mighty" have fallen. Eli Manning's struggles this past season proved that New York relies too heavily on his late-game and late-season heroics to be considred a consistent threat to capture the NFC. Heck, they're not even contenders for the division championship at this point. There are just too many holes on this team. It has questions marks at running back, center, guard, tackle, linebacker, cornerback and safety. Yes, that's a whole heck of a lot of questions for a team that is just 13 months removed from winning the Super Bowl. The Giants will have to have a stellar draft and see Manning perform up to late-2011 level if they're going to contend in 2013. Do you see that happening?