Much like in the real world of football, there is always something that comes across the minds of fantasy owners.
How do you value skill level in this fast-growing industry? Is it as important as previous production? In order to fully answer this question, one must know what type of league you are playing.
In standard re-draft leagues, the assumption is that previous production holds more ground. After all, you are drafting a team that needs to produce for just one season.
In dynasty or keeper leagues, the answer is more clouded.
It all depends on how you are building your roster.
Are you attempting to compete for a championship in season one, at the cost of your long-term success? Somewhat like what we have seen in real life with the Washington Redskins and Philadelphia Eagles over that past few years. If so, just use the standard re-draft method.
If you are looking to find a happy medium, like most of us are, it's not so simple.
Marcedes Lewis has enough talent to cripple opposing defensive backs, but a myriad issues has held back his production of late. Despite a high level of talent, Lewis is considered nowhere near a TE1 option. After all, he has just 1,000 total receiving yards and four touchdowns over the past two seasons.
On the other hand, someone like Brandon Myers is considered a much better fantasy option. Myers came to the NFL without much fanfare, undrafted. But, he's become a solid target. His move to the New York Giants in free agency this offseason will assuredly impact his fantasy stock.
According to My Fantasy Leagues, Myers' ADP is 25th among tight ends in dynasty drafts, about 135.4 overall. That makes him one of the last players owners select before turning their attention to the all-important kicker position. For his part, Myers is two years younger than Lewis and has put up better fantasy numbers over the past two seasons. Despite this, I have seen many drafts where Lewis has gone higher than Myers.
See, the answer here is rather complex.
What about Alex Smith compared to Jay Cutler? On the surface, the answer here seems to be rather simple.
Cutler has thrown for over 4,000 yards with over 20 touchdowns multiple times in his career. Smith has yet to accomplish either feat in eight seasons. That should be telling.
What those basic stats don't take into a account is that Cutler turns the ball over in a higher volume and is playing behind a pretty bad offensive line.
Smith comes to Kansas City after eight up-and-down seasons with San Francisco. He has, however, tallied over two times more touchdowns than interceptions over the last two seasons and possesses a quarterback rating that ranks him in the top seven of the NFL during that span.
Smith's value is also there. His ADP in re-draft leagues (183.9) is much lower than Cutler's (146.9), which means you can look to another position early in the draft while waiting for a bottom-tier QB1 option or top-tier QB2 option later.
In this case, production matters much more than basic talent. After all, Smith was a higher-ranked fantasy option than Cutler in his last full season as San Francisco's starter. Smith ranked 10th among quarterbacks in fantasy points that season compared to Cutler's No. 25 ranking.
When looking at dynasty leagues, it's important to look for upside over production when it comes to filling out your bench and taxi squad. In this case, someone like Marcus Lattimore might be a better mid-round option than Fred Jackson. One has produced in the past and will likely provide something this season. The other, in this case Lattimore, hasn't produced at a NFL level in the past and will likely sit out a majority, if not all of his rookie season.
My suggestion is that you find a happy medium in dynasty leagues. Go with the proven talent early while saving the rest of the roster for high-upside players.
That's my take...