In our seemingly never-ending attempt to help all you fantasy football nerds out there, eDraft ran five simulations on its database over the past three days and decided to share what we learned in the process.
You will see 12 different trends that were pointed out during these mock draft simulations. Considering they were done over a three-day period, this will give you a good understanding of where certain players are going in real drafts leading up to Week 1 of the regular season this upcoming Thursday.
We also recommend you check out our free mock draft simulator. It's an awesome prep tool.
1. Adrian Peterson is the Third of the Three 'Elite" Running Backs off the Board
This shouldn't come as too much of a surprise. On average, Peterson is considered the third-best fantasy running back heading into the season behind LeSean McCoy and Jamaal Charles. While surface-based sites like ESPN have AP No. 1, there is no indication that he should be selected that high.
In all five of the simulations I ran, either McCoy or Charles went first overall with Peterson coming in at third. You can expect this very same situation to play out during your regular drafts. If picking third and in a PPR league, the decision then becomes whether to go AP instead of the likes of Jimmy Graham or Calvin Johnson. Considering Norv Turner's offensive philosophy in Minnesota, we suggest Peterson without you thinking about it too much.
2. Top-Five Selections are Running Backs
With McCoy, Charles and Peterson as the top-three picks in all of our simulations, four of the five had Matt Forte and Eddie Lacy rounding out the top-five overall picks. In the fifth simulation, Calvin Johnson went No. 5 overall.
Unlike the decision you have with Peterson at three overall, which isn't too difficult, selecting fifth could lead you to think twice about going running back. It's our recommendation that you play your cards close to the vest here and still utilize the philosophy of finding a potentially top-tier RB1 at five and then look wide receiver in the second round. After all, the likes of Dez Bryant and Julio Jones were available with the seventh pick in the second round in four of the five simulations we ran.
3. Calvin Johnson First Non-Running Back Off the Board
In all five of the simulations we ran, Megatron was the first non-running back off the board. Considering Detroit's pass-based offense and Johnson's production over the past three seasons or so, this isn't a surprise. However, we would caution going Johnson within the first six picks or so.
While the top-five picks were etched in stone in the simulations we ran, you never know whether someone is going to throw a curve ball your way. If so, that means one of the top-five running backs will be available later. This may lead you to believe that you can pick up a Doug Martin near the top of the second round. Not so fast my friends, his ADP has been skyrocketing as of late. While not necessarily a value pick, still consider Martin at six, seven or either and target a top-end wide receiver not named Calvin Johnson in the second.
4. Marshawn Lynch Still a First-Round Value
Of course, this is based on ADP and the simulations that we ran. Whether you believe Lynch represents Round 1 value is a completely different situation. He's currently my seventh-ranked fantasy running back behind the top five as well as Montee Ball in Denver. Though, an argument could be made for Lynch over Ball.
With that said, Lynch doesn't necessarily represent a ton of upside over value towards the latter part of the first round. Why not pick up a Jimmy Graham or Dez Bryant there while still be able to add one of the following: Alfred Morris, Giovani Bernard or even a Doug Martin in Round 2?
5. Brandon Marshall Ahead of Dez Bryant
In all five of the simulations I ran, Marshall went ahead of Bryant. This makes absolutely no sense. And plan accordingly. Bryant is the clear No. 1 option on a Cowboys offense that will throw the ball more than they do in Chicago. It also doesn't hurt that Bryant is averaging 92 receptions for 1,300 yards and 12.5 scores over the past two seasons. In fact, an argument could be made that Bryant will put up better numbers than Calvin Johnson himself in 2014.
On the other hand, Marshall will likely see a significant handcuff in the form of Alshon Jeffery, who is also a WR1. The two put up stellar numbers last season, but the expectation is that Chicago will attempt to control the clock more and utilize Matt Forte on the ground. If so, that could be huge for Marshall's fantasy production.
6. Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers Both Second-Round Picks
For what it's worth, Peyton Manning went in the first round in four of the five simulations I ran. Brees and Rodgers were the two quarterbacks selected in the second round with Matthew Stafford going a top the third round in all five simulations.
7. Toby Gerhart Ahead of Reggie Bush and C.J. Spiller
This is a bit of a surprise. The new Jaguars running back was selected ahead of Bush and Spiller in all five of the simulations I ran. As a late third-round pick, he's expected to be a top-end RB2, based on ADP.
8. Jimmy Graham is the TE1 by a Large Margin
In every single one of the simulations I ran, the New Orleans Saints tight end was selected in the first round. In four of the five simulations, he was the second non-running back off the board behind Calvin Johnson. And in one, he was actually the first player outside of the running back position selected. In a sign that we expect Graham to be a dominating fantasy option, the second tight end selected in four of the five simulators was Rob Gronkowski towards the end of the third round.
9. Frank Gore Continues to Slide
The veteran San Francisco 49ers running back was not selected in the first five rounds in any of the simulations I ran. He went between the sixth and eight rounds each time. While not a RB1 anymore, Gore still represents tremendous value as an under-the-radar RB2 option. Maybe wait until later in the draft to address that position with Gore while finding value at other positions. If you're not 100 percent sold on the future Hall of Famer, handcuff him with ultra-impressive rookie Carlos Hyde.
10. Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick are Mid-Round Picks
Both of these young quarterbacks are not necessarily being valued too high at this point. In all five of the simulations I ran, neither of them scratched the first six rounds. In a majority of them, Wilson and Kaepernick were selected in the seventh round. Interestingly enough, in four of the five simulations, these two division rivals were selected right after one another. In terms of value, Nick Foles, Tom Brady and Jay Cutler went ahead of these two in every simulation. You do that math there, especially with Brady.
11. Defenses are a High Priority
Seattle and San Francisco represent a consensus as the top two defenses/special teams around fantasy football. And in all five of the simulations I ran, both were selected in the eighth round. That's mighty high to look at this position in a standard draft. Interestingly enough, the Carolina Panthers went between rounds eight and 10 as well.
12. No Faith in Robert Griffin III and Tony Romo
Both of these NFC East quarterbacks continue to slide down draft boards. In fact, four defenses were selected before these signal callers in four of the five simulations I ran. In addition to this, RGIII and Tony Romo slipped to the 10th round in all but one of the simulations with RGIII falling all the way to Round 12 in two of them. While RGIII represents a tremendouis leap of faith, Romo has been a rock-solid QB1 during his NFL career. And barring injury, there is no reason to expect that to change. Our recommendation is that you hold off as long as possible (likely between rounds seven and nine) to pick up a quarterback.
Late Round Adds (Simulated Round Range)
Mike Evans, Wide Receiver, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-13)
DeAndre Hopkins, Wide Receiver, Houston Texans (11-13)
Philip Rivers, Quarterback, San Diego Chargers (10-12)
Tyler Eifert, Tight End, Cincinnati Bengals (12-14)
Delanie Walker, Tight End, Tennessee Titans (13-14)