Fantasy Football: Eddie Lacy vs. Melvin Gordon in Dynasty Drafts

By Matt Johnson on Wednesday, June 10th 2015
Fantasy Football: Eddie Lacy vs. Melvin Gordon in Dynasty Drafts

Fantasy football has become a staple of the sports world. As Fantasy Sports Trade Association found in 2014, over 41 million people played fantasy football. Daily Fantasy Sports is booming but as it blossoms, we are also seeing an increase in keeper leagues and dynasty leagues. 

As more eyes turn towards dynasty leagues, draft strategies begin to chance. When you might ordinarily have Adrian Peterson as your top running back or slide Le'Veon Bell down your draft board because of his three-game suspension, that changes in dynasty leagues. Bell's suspension almost becomes a nothing, while you are more hesitant to take the 30-year-old Peterson so early.

The focus is obviously on young running backs and wide receivers. Many have learned you can wait for quarterbacks later on, so there will be a focus on players like Julio Jones, Dez Bryant, Odell Beckham, Jeremy Hill and many more. The question is, should you take top-three receiver in the first round then take a chance on a rookie running back in year two or lock up your RB1 with your first pick then go wide receiver in round two.

Let's provide a specific example. After waiting to find out where you will be picking in your dynasty draft, you discover you have the fifth pick. Bell, Jamaal CharlesDez Bryant and Antonio Brown. Now it's decision time, do you go with a top, young running back like Eddie Lacy or snag OBJ, then take Melvin Gordon in the second round.

It's a tough decision to make, so let's breakdown each option and what route each decision would lead you to.

Scenario No.1:

First Pick: Eddie Lacy

With the fourth overall pick, you proudly take the Packers' running back. He's in the perfect situation – defenses are forced to focus on stopping the best quarterback in the game, Aaron Rodgers, loading up the secondary, which lightens up the box as a result. 

Green Bay's offensive line was outstanding last season and with Bryan Bulaga re-signed, they should continue to dominate the trenches as long as everyone is healthy. With two deep safeties protecting Jordy Nelson or Randall Cobb from getting open downfield, it means one less man near the box to prevent Lacy from breaking off chunks of yards. 

Lacy is an excellent running back, combining quick feet, great vision, nice burst and a nasty spin as excellent qualities. But his calling card is the power, at 5'11" and 231 pounds, he is a nightmare to see coming right at you. He is as strong as they come, displaying the ability to power through arm tackles and fight for extra yards while being gang tackled. If that wasn't enough for you, Lacy established himself as a true three-down back last season.

He finished with a 3.6 pass-block grade last season from Pro Football Focus, finishing fifth amongst all running backs. What's the biggest surprise is his tremendous work catching passes out of the backfield, finishing the year with 42 receptions for 427 yards and four touchdowns. 

There are certainly some concerns with Lacy, whether people want to acknowledge them or not. Yes, Green Bay is trying to limit his touches and he doesn't reach the obscene levels that the Minnesota Vikings and Dallas Cowboys have done. He ahs 1,050 total touches in five seasons between Alabama and Green Bay. Not outrageous, but concerning given the variation of injuries he has had.

Second Pick: DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Houston Texans

While everyone is falling head over heels for the elite, immediate-production receivers, I think you should be very happy to get Hopkins. He just turned 23 on June 6 and Hopkins is already starting to draw attention. In his second season, he finished with over 1,200 yards and six touchdowns. 

Sure, those numbers don't have quite the same ring as a 1,400-yard, 10-touchdown season you'll find from someone like OBJ. But just look at the Texans' quarterback depth chart, take a moment to recover, then realize you are looking at Ryan Mallett and Brian Hoyer. This is obviously an ongoing issue and something the Texans have yet to solve, but hopefully the 2016 NFL Draft brings that.

Hopkins won't be a slouch this season either – Andre Johnson is gone, opening the door for Hopkins to be the focal point of the Texans' passing game. He will see plenty of targets and with his all-around abilities, we should see an 80/1,100/7 line this season. But if Houston can find its franchise quarterback, Hopkins will join the big names at wide receiver.

 

Scenario No.2

First Pick: Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta Falcons

With your first pick, after seeing Bryant and Brown come off the board, you decide to lock up one of the elites at wide receiver. While it may not be a PPR league, few positions are as consistent as elite receivers. You can usually expect them to stay healthy over the next five-to-seven years. 

Jones set a career-high in receptions (104), targets (164) and receiving yards (1,593) last season. It was an excellent bounce back season after he missed 11 games in 2013 with a fractured foot. He showed no ill effects during the season and now enters the heralded "contract year", when players are going all out to get every dollar possible.

While Jones' numbers from last season are impressive, he could feasibly do even more this season. Under new offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan, Jones should easily surpass his 164 targets from last season. While Shanahan likes to run the football, he makes the offense's top receiver the driving force of the passing game. Jones quarterback, Matt Ryan, just turned 30 and has at least five strong years ahead of him.

Second Pick: Melvin Gordon, RB, San Diego Chargers

We come to the other side of this question, Lacy in the first round versus Gordon in the second round. It's not just a question of player versus player but value and circumstance. What outcome puts your fantasy team in the best position to win going forward? But before we answer that, let's take a look at the Chargers new running back.

There should be little doubt about Gordon's running abilities. All he needs is a small crease to slip past the first level and he's gone, with his explosiveness, agility and cutting ability jumping out the most. Once he gets past the first level, he'll slip past the linebacker and put a move on the defensive back to get free for a big play. Gordon was praised for his pure running ability coming out of the draft, with some just having some concerns over his patience and vision translating to the NFL. 

Gordon is still a major question in the passing game, both in pass-protection and catching passes out of the backfield. It's part of Wisconsin's system, limiting him to a tow-down role and then bringing in a back for passing downs. With more experience, Gordon should improve in this area. Until he does, Gordon will be a two-down back. 

He is still a dynamic threat, with the ability to break off a big play at any moment. He is not Jamaal Charles, comparisons to that are simply speaking to his game-changing ability. There will be concerns about the Chargers' offensive line, but keep in mind Ryan Mathews had a 1,200 yard season in 2013. Gordon is a better player than Mathews and is more likely to stay healthy.

While Gordon doesn't come close to Lacy's ideal situation, he has durability and more youth on his side. It's also not as if Gordon will be restricted in carries out of the gate, San Diego will give him the ball 20-plus times a game. He has the size and strength to power through tackles and paired with the speed and elusiveness, he can be counted on for big plays and some touchdowns near the goal line.

 

Situation No.1

Pro's:

  • Landing a top-three running back this season. Lacy offers the safety of 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns with upside to do even more.
  • While aiming for future upside at wide receiver, you landed a nice WR2 for this season and WR1 in the future.

Con's:

  • Lacy is certainly the better instant impact running back, but there are concerns about a running back with durability issues getting worse over time.
  • The gap between Hopkins and Jones is larger than the gap between Lacy and Gordon in dynasty leagues.
  • Even when he develops, Hopkins may not be a top-10 fantasy WR.

Situation No.2

Pro's:

  • You land a elite receiver who you can count on for a big year this season and consistent production for years to come.
  • Gordon offers more long-term upside than Lacy, while still offering you security of a good rookie season. 
  • Long-term, could be looking at a top-five running back and wide receiver.

Con's:

  • You hope that Jones foot injury doesn't come back and cost him more time in the future.
  • You are betting more on Gordon's potential, rather than the immediate, top-five running back in Lacy.

Conclusion

Both decisions put you off to great start in a dynasty league with two young players at key positions who you can center your team around. There are strong cases to be made for both running backs in the grand picture when looking at value, potential and circumstances of your roster.

In the end, I would take Jones with the fifth overall pick and then target Gordon in the second round. Running backs have a shelf life and while Lacy just turned 25, the touches are adding up to a body that has been susceptible to injuries. It's certainly possible he can avoid the big injury, but it's the little knee bruises and toe injuries that build up over time. Hopkins should be a great wide receiver when Houston drafts a franchise quarterback, but that's a waiting game.

By taking Jones in the first round, you get an elite wide receiver just entering his prime in a new offense, with an offensive coordinator that will make him an even greater weapon in the passing game. We could be talking about the likes of a season with 110 receptions, 1,600 yards and 10 touchdowns. Pair that with a rookie running back who could be a 1,000-yard back in his first season with the big-play ability and crazy upside. It brings together the brightest future for your fantasy team and while the short-run is nice, the focus must be on the long-term gains for your team.

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