In tracking the respective careers of both Jay Cutler and Alex Smith, one would very much opt for the former for their fantasy football needs.
Cutler has compiled four 20-plus-touchdown seasons, while Smith has never produced such an NFL campaign. Additional favorable numbers for Cutler are his four 3,000-yard seasons (and one 4,000-yard season) compared to Smith’s lone 3,000-yard campaign.
However, upon further inspection, the Chiefs’ new gunslinger is actually the quarterback with more encouraging fantasy numbers on his side in recent years.
What are they?
Read along as we identify those statistics and analyze Cutler and Smith’s fantasy prospects for 2013.
Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears
The mercurial Bears QB played in his third consecutive shortened season last year (albeit by just one game). He completed just 58.8 percent of his passes while throwing for 3,033 yards and tossing 19 touchdowns next to 18 total turnovers (14 interceptions). All were career-lows in seasons in which he started 15 or more games.
Cutler found himself all the way down at No. 20 for both passer rating (81.3) and total QBR (51.9). Fantasy speaking, he accrued a mere 184.62 points, ranking No. 23 overall among NFL quarterbacks.
Heading into 2013, Cutler will revert back to the more productive version of himself in years past. It just won’t be a substantial improvement.
The man sporting No. 6 will benefit from upgrades in the offensive line with Jermon Bushrod at left tackle and Kyle Long at left guard. New head coach Marc Trestman is an offensive guru and will also aid Cutler’s development.
Unfortunately, Cutler still only has one proven receiver in Brandon Marshall and one dynamic weapon in running back Matt Forte. It remains to be seen whether second-year man Alshon Jeffery will realize his talents and if newly added Martellus Bennett is more than a one hit wonder. Unless they can help contribute on a legitimate basis, defenses will hone their sights solely on Marshall and Forte (and Michael Bush in goal-line situations, to be fair).
As such, Cutler remains one of the lower QB1 options in your fantasy league. We recommend looking elsewhere.
Projected Statistics: 3,300 passing yards, 21 touchdowns, 15 interceptions
Alex Smith, Kansas City Chiefs
Smith landed in Kansas City over the offseason after being moved from San Francisco for a second-round pick. While with the 49ers, Smith played exceptionally well, but unfortunately lost his job to All-World Colin Kaepernick after sustaining a concussion.
Through eight full games (nine starts), he completed a fantastic 70.2 percent of his passes and earned a 104.1 passer rating. He only totaled 1,737 passing yards and 13 touchdowns (next to five interceptions), but was also rocking the No. 7 overall mark in total QBR (70.1).
If we project his stats over 15 games (we’ll omit his 72 yards and one TD in Week 10 because of his limited playing time), Smith would have amassed 3,122 yards, 23 touchdowns and only nine interceptions. His completion percentage would have likely decreased, but certainly not enough to remove him from near the league-leading echelon.
Heck, he even would have rushed for 238 yards. Point being, Smith’s 220 or so projected fantasy points would have placed him in the top 20 and ahead of Cutler.
Can we expect Smith to duplicate those numbers now that he’s the man under center with the Chiefs? Absolutely.
Veteran head coach Andy Reid works wonders with quarterbacks. He may not have the rapport that Jim Harbaugh established with Smith, but Reid remains a quarterback-coaching savant. Moreover, the Chiefs feature a bevy of offensive talent that includes receiver Dwayne Bowe, running back Jamaal Charles, tight end Tony Moeaki and versatile weapon Dexter McCluster. The O-line is also solidified behind tackles Brandon Albert and No. 1 overall draft pick Eric Fisher.
Expect a quality 2013 campaign out of Smith—but one that would still qualify as a late-round QB1 in the fantasy realm.
Projected Statistics: 3,200 passing yards, 20 touchdowns, nine interceptions, 150 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown
The Verdict
Smith wins the day in this battle with Cutler. Coach Reid will take advantage of his new QB’s West Coast skill set and put him in position for a highly efficient overall year behind a powerful rushing attack. Both quarterbacks, however, aren’t worth a high-round QB1 fantasy pick.
Jay Cutler: 190 fantasy points
Alex Smith: 210 fantasy points
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