Fantasy Football Playoffs: Trent Richardson or Doug Martin?

By Joey Levitt on Saturday, December 8th 2012
Fantasy Football Playoffs: Trent Richardson or Doug Martin?

Trent Richardson, Doug Martin—please take your rightful seat at the NFL big boy table.

Prolific rookie backs are always welcome.

That said, we still must vet you for fantasy football viability in the playoffs. Let’s review.

In a refreshing turn of events thus far in 2012, Richardson and Martin have produced in eye-catching fashion from the running back position. The two rookies—Richardson for the Browns and Martin for the Buccaneers—lead their respective teams in rushing and own highlight reels not often seen from first-year players.

Richardson has rushed for 827 yards and seven touchdowns (eight TDs overall) at a clip of 3.6 yards per carry. His numbers place at him No. 14 on the running back leader board.

Nearly every one of his touchdowns has exemplified his awesomely comprehensive skill set—whether it be power, speed, vision or running it both inside and to the outside. Richardson’s first- and fifth-career TD runs are particularly pleasing to the eye.

In fantasy scoring, the Browns’ leading rusher owns the fifth-most points by a running back with 164.60. That number rates out 13.72 points per game with the help of 339 yards receiving (7.7-yard average) from Richardson on the season.

Martin, though, has been far and away the more impressive back. He ranks an incredible No. 3 overall among NFL rushers with 1,106 yards, nine TDs (second most) and a 4.7-yard average. He also has a touchdown and 374 yards receiving through the air (superior average of 11.7 yards per catch).

One need only look at his 25-carry, 251-yard and four-touchdown performance against the Raiders to appreciate what Martin can on a football field. We believe it set records for the Buccaneers franchise.

Moreover, the Boise State product boasts another No. 3 ranking with 206 fantasy points. He contributes an average of 17.17 points to (hopefully) your team on a weekly basis.

So, moving forward, which running back will be the better option for fantasy owners during the last four games of the 2012 season?

Let’s weigh overall statistics, weekly consistency and remaining opponents to determine which rookie phenom will produce superior fantasy numbers.

Richardson falls well short of Martin’s rushing and fantasy totals for the season. On the other hand, Martin accumulated 41 percent of his fantasy points in all of two games. His counterpart’s two highest point totals, meanwhile, accounted for only 28 percent of his 2012 production. These numbers would indicate that Richardson is the more consistent producer from week to week.

However, we needed an additional corroborating metric to better assess their consistency. By removing each running back’s two highest and two lowest fantasy days, Cleveland’s rookie only has a slight edge at 14.05 points/game vs. 13.73/game for Martin. These numbers are essentially identical and thus cancel each other out.

Accordingly, these latest analyses reveal that Martin remains the better option based off the initial qualifiers. But let’s move on to the third category—it’s one that could very well outweigh the first two altogether.

Cleveland’s remaining opponents are Kansas City, Washington, Denver and Pittsburgh. As such, Richardson has quite the unenviable task in front of him. After likely gutting the Chiefs’ No. 26 ranked run defense on Sunday, he’ll have to deal with the Redskins’ No. 4, Broncos’ No. 6 and Steelers’ No. 5 ranked defensive contingents.

And to make matters worse, those teams all have fervent playoff aspirations, which will surely fuel their already unyielding units. They’ll have their collective eyes deadest on stopping the Browns’ No. 1 offensive weapon.

Martin, on the contrary, could very well be smooth sailing to the finish line. His remaining obstacles amount to the Eagles’ (No. 18), Saints’ (No. 32), Rams’ (No. 13) and Falcons’ (No. 20) defenses against the run. We think it’s fair to say that Philly has thrown in the towel, New Orleans is just plain awful, St. Louis is beatable and Atlanta will have already secured their playoff seeding.

Kind of the opposite of Richardson’s road ahead, don’t ya think?

So, if you’re looking to secure your own fantasy playoff good fortune, we’d suggest aligning with Team Martin on this one.

 

Follow me on Twitter @jlevitt16

 

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