Aaron Rodgers, Quarterback
While there may be some debate about who the top quarterback in football is there should be little debate about who is the best in fantasy football. Some will make a case for Peyton Manning thanks to the arrival of Wes Welker, and maybe a case could be made for Drew Brees. But if you want to take the ace of the quarterback position it is going to be Rodgers.
His numbers took a step back in the 2012 season, he didn’t eclipse 40 touchdown passes (39) and he was only able to pass for 4,295 yards in 16 games. Rodgers battled through an abhorrent offensive line that gave up a lot of pressure and he never had the threat of a running game behind him. That should change in 2013, and Rodgers can step up and deliver fantasy owners with even more production.
Rodgers was sacked a league-high 51 times last season, and there were other plays he would miss out on because of pressure. While left tackle Bryan Bulaga is out for the season, improvements were still made on the offensive line. Josh Sitton was moved over to the left side where he should provide more protection and David Bakhtiari is an upgrade over Marshall Newhouse at left tackle. If Rodgers can make a few adjustments and get rid of the ball more quickly, it should take pressure off the offensive line and give him more chances to look down field. Then when you factor in the improvements made at running back, Green Bay will be able to use the play-action more effectively and open more things up in the passing game.
While some are concerned about the loss of Greg Jennings the effects may be minimal as Jennings only played in only eight games last season. His role in the offense became diminished and a new group of receivers took over. Randall Cobb emerged as the go-to guy, James Jones has become an excellent threat inside the 20 and while Jordy Nelson has dealt with injuries, he can still be a great receiving threat. If Jermichael Finley has matured and really committed himself to maximizing on his talents, Rodgers will have an even greater receiving corps to work with in 2013.
Rodgers rarely turns the ball over and still can throw for 40+ touchdowns and more than 4,300 yards every season. He may not throw it as much as Brees, but he won’t turn it over as many times and should be the first quarterback selected.
Projection: 43 Pass TD’s, 4,350 Pass Yards, seven interceptions and three rushing touchdowns.
Eddie Lacy, Running Back
The Packers invested a second round pick with Lacy and the hopes that he could solve their problems with running the football. Lacy dominated last season at Alabama and fell to the second round because of concerns with his durability. But if he can stay healthy, the rookie could be in for a big year.
Lacy came into training camp with a swirl of controversy after a picture on Twitter showed him looking overweight and questions were raised. Things quieted down after Lacy started to dominate in practice and start to work with the first offense, but he suffered a hamstring injury before the first game of the preseason and was unable to play. We finally saw what Lacy could do in week two, as he ran over defenders and looked like the star college running back that everyone loved. While he still isn’t listed as the starter, it should only be a matter of time before he takes over the reigns and brings a punch to the running game.
When Lacy does take over, he should find plenty of space to run as the defense focuses in on Rodgers. Lacy won’t have to deal with eight men in the box, and will be able to run free and break tackles. This is still a pass-first offense and Lacy will have to share carries, but he will secure rushing touchdowns and should pick up a few hundred yards along the way. He is risky as a number two running back in fantasy, but can be an excellent flex option in standard leagues.
Projection: 847 rushing yards, seven rushing touchdowns, 134 receiving yards
DuJuan Harris, Running Back
Harris became a fan-favorite at the end of last season in a story that led him from being a car salesman to the starting running back for a playoff team. But what does the 2013 season hold for Harris and can fantasy owners rely on him.
Harris is still listed as the starting running back and has earned a vote of confidence from Mike McCarthy. He missed the first few weeks of training camp with a knee injury but has returned on a limited basis and is still listed atop the depth chart. He has missed the first two preseason games and can’t afford to miss any more action without potentially losing his job to Lacy.
If you are looking for a short-term option at running back, Harris could give you some yards in the first few weeks of the regular season. But this job will soon belong to Lacy and Harris will be left with a change-of-pace role for this offense.
Projection: 247 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns and 56 receiving yards
Johnathan Franklin, Running Back
Considered by many to be one of the biggest draft steals, the hope was that Franklin could emerge in training camp as the all-around back who could work his way up to earn the starting job. But as we enter the third week of the preseason, Franklin hasn’t delivered on expectations.
He continues to struggle with his pass protection in drills and during games, something that was supposed to be a positive for him entering the draft. Even with injuries to Harris and Lacy, he has been ineffective with the reps he has been given and just seems to be behind the curve so far. He is in no danger of losing a roster spot and has locked up the third running back spot, but unless you are in a dynasty league he isn’t worth owning this season unless injuries were to occur.
Projection: 218 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns, 94 receiving yards and one receiving touchdown
Jermichael Finley, Tight End
Every year we expect Finley to have the breakout season where he finally realizes his potential and becomes a top five fantasy tight end. We saw a glimpse of it in 2010 before he went down with an injury, but drops have plagued his career.
I’m giving Finley another year and believe that the changes he has made in the offseason will result in a career year. He has come into camp with a new attitude and commitment to studying film and making improvements. The changes haven’t gone unnoticed by coaches and the quarterback, who have praised Finley all offseason for his performance. He has always had the physical gifts to be an elite tight end, but just hasn’t delivered on those gifts. Now he has finally rebuilt chemistry with Rodgers and in a contract year, wants to earn a big extension.
You can wait until the later rounds to draft Finley and still end up with a starting tight end. Many prefer to take someone like Jimmy Graham or Jason Witten but you can use that pick on a receiver and draft Finley as your starter and expect strong numbers.
Projection: 74 receptions, 819 receiving yards, seven receiving touchdowns
Randall Cobb, Wide Receiver
Cobb quickly took the stage last season as the most exciting threat in the Packers offense with his versatility as a return man, running back and in the slot. His speed presents a nightmare that other teams just can’t stop and that is just one of the reasons why everyone is expecting him to have a monster season.
You know you are a great player when after posting 80 receptions for 854 yards and eight touchdowns in just your second season, people expect a real breakout year the following year. That is the situation Cobb finds himself in and his quarterback can help him get there. Rodgers has already stated he believes Cobb can be a “100-catch guy”. Keep in mind, there has never been a 100-catch receiver in Green Bay since Rodgers took over at quarterback in 2008. While there is plenty of pressure on Cobb, he is the best receiver on this team and is still developing in just his third season. Green Bay loves to throw the football and when you have the best quarterback in the league throwing you perfect passes, you are in great position to deliver on those expectations.
The two biggest concerns when it comes to Cobb are his ability to stay healthy and if he can hold on to the football. He has already missed time in camp with a biceps injury although he is recovering and won’t miss any games in the regular season. But when he was on the practice field he was struggling with drops, something that goes back to last season when he had 11 drops. These are the two concerns with Cobb but as long as he can stay healthy, the targets will more than make up for the drops and should be a minimal concern for fantasy owners.
There is a reason everyone in Green Bay loves Cobb and Rodgers predicted he could have 100 or more receptions. He can line up in the slot while just exploiting every coverage and being Rodgers’ favorite target this season and beyond. If you want to go running backs with your first two picks, don’t be afraid to take Cobb as your top receiver.
Projection: 98 receptions, 1,117 receiving yards, 11 receiving touchdowns, 148 rushing yards
Jordy Nelson, Wide Receiver
After having a remarkable 2011 season that was captivated with 15 touchdowns and 1,200 receiving yards, many expected Nelson to take a step back in 2012. But owners were disappointed at the end of the season with Nelson’s numbers nearly being cut in half. The question is, which Nelson will fantasy owners find this season?
Nelson played in just 12 games last season and even when he was on the field, he was always battling knee and ankle problems. There were flashes of his 2011 season, including against the Texans when he hauled in three touchdowns for 121 yards and followed that up with a 122-yard and one touchdown performance against the Rams. But than there were the five games when he had less than 65 receiving yards. The injuries were obviously bothering him all year and teams were focusing their coverage on stopping him. Nelson had surgery just a few weeks ago that will cost him the entire preseason, but it should prevent any lingering knee problems in the future.
Assuming he is ready to suit up against the 49ers, Nelson will be ready to prove himself once again as a top 20 receiver in the league. The speed is still there and he is the biggest deep threat on the Packers. If Rodgers has just a little time to look down the field this season, he will look to Nelson for the big play. There are some injury concerns here but for where you can land him in the draft, you could be looking at a good number two receiver.
Projection: 66 receptions, 914 receiving yards, eight receiving touchdowns
James Jones, Wide Receiver
In 2011, Nelson became the fantasy football star and Jones was left tumbling down draft boards as a bench receiver. But for the teams who took a shot at Jones later in their draft last year, he went beyond any expectations by leading the NFL with 14 touchdowns. Now as he finds himself higher on draft rankings the question is, how close can he come to repeating those numbers.
Before 2012, Jones had questionable hands but his ability to get open in the end zone stood out as something to keep an eye on. The dropped passes were no longer an issue in 2012; Jones dropped just two passes and was an unstoppable force inside the red zone. It will be hard for him to repeat the 14-touchdown mark, but even if you take a chunk of that away he can still find his way to eight or nine touchdowns. Jones should also find added targets due to the departure of Jennings and teams starting to focus in more on Cobb.
Jones is an adequate number two receiver in fantasy football but presents an excellent option as a third receiver on your team. While a drop in touchdowns is expected, that loss can be softened by increases in receptions and receiving yards.
Projection: 64 receptions, 794 receiving yards, nine receiving touchdowns
Jarrett Boykin, Wide Receiver
With the departure of Jennings and Donald Driver there will be a new man taking over as Green Bay’s number four receiver. The favorite throughout training camp has been Boykin and his play should earn him the job.
If you are in a league with more than 16 teams and deep rosters, Boykin is certainly a name to keep an eye on. The Packers have stashed him on their roster while he develops his route-running skills and awareness and he is finally getting his opportunity. If Nelson, Jones or Cobb were to go down then Boykin would emerge as the third receiver on a team that loves to throw the football.
Projection: 27 receptions, 247 receiving yards, one receiving touchdown
Packers D/ST
Fantasy owners were still able to rely on the Green Bay Packers defense in 2011 because they forced turnovers and were able to return some of those for touchdowns. But in 2012, the turnover total dropped and the Packers D/ST couldn’t be relied upon anymore. While you should never take a defense until late in the draft, can you rely upon the Packers this season as your starting defense?
Green Bay did a nice job getting after the quarterback last season, ranking fourth in the NFL in sacks with 47. That number is even more impressive when you consider Clay Matthews missed four games, first-round pick Nick Perry missed 10 games and B.J. Raji struggled to create pressure. They are all healthy entering the season and will be faired with first-round pick Datone Jones. Perry, Matthews and Jones should help bring even more pressure on the quarterback and that could help the secondary as well.
If Green Bay can force bad throws, it will give their secondary more opportunities to make plays and increase their interception total from last season. The team also has worked on becoming a more physical unit, by attacking the ball carrier and putting more attention on knocking out the football.
While this defense may not return to the elite form they were before, an increase in turnovers and steadiness in sacks could help turn this unit around and prevent scoring chances for the other team. You may have to sit their defense on a few occasions, but they can be relied upon to start on your team most weeks.
Projection: 48 sacks, 24 interceptions, 12 forced fumbles and three touchdown returns.
Mason Crosby, Kicker
Crosby is in a battle for the kicking job with Giorgio Tavecchio but should emerge after the preseason as the winner. The question is, will he go back to being a top fantasy kicker or is he someone who should be left in the free agent pool.
Last season Crosby made just 21 of 33 field goal attempts for a league-low 63.6 percent of completions. Previously known as a kicker with a power leg, he missed seven of his nine attempts from beyond 50 yards.
Projection: 26/34 FG’s and 57/57 XP’s