In the world of fantasy football, there is no more important position than running back. Converse to the ideology in today’s NFL where rushers are considered a dime a dozen, gaining points in the running back slots is more important than any other. Remember, it is not point totals that matter but points above others at the same position. Value is the name of the game, and value at running back is paramount amongst fantasy teams’ needs.
But which rushers are headed in the opposite direction than the one you want? Everyone remembers the busts. Chris Johnson in 2011, Matt Forte in 2009, Ryan Mathews in 2012, Ray Rice in 2013, the list goes on and on. So how can you avoid falling into a trap laid by one of these inconsistent masters of the ground game? Look no further.
Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers
Almost assuredly a first-ballot Hall of Famer, Gore’s days as a RB-1 are numbered both in San Francisco and on your fantasy team. A model of consistency in his nine-year career, Gore has surpassed the 1,000 yard total in seven of his nine years carrying the rock for the 49ers.
While Gore’s 2,187 career rushing attempts fall short of the 2,400 carry running back death mark, the 31 year old’s age is catching up to him. Match Gore’s seniority with the depth on the roster this year in San Francisco, and you have a recipe for regression.
DeAngelo Williams, Carolina Panthers
A name synonymous with annual fantasy disappointment, Williams actually ended up as the 23rd highest scoring back in the league last season with 138 points in a standard scoring system. Unfortunately for the man who topped the 1,000 yard mark for the first time in five seasons, he was all but invisible at the goal line as Cam Newton and the original touchdown vulture, Mike Tolbert, nabbed 16 of the Panthers’ 21 carries inside the goal line.
Williams’ age is a factor as well, as at 31 most backs are considered over the hill. In addition to Williams’ age concerns, Jonathan Stewart lurks in the background to steal carries, while Tolbert remains the teams’ main threat in short-yardage and scoring downs. The 2013 season was a fluke in terms of Williams carries and yardage, so stay away from this fantasy zombie in 2014.
Knowshon Moreno, Miami Dolphins
A familiarly disappointing face in a new place is the youngest addition to this list, and also the unluckiest. One year after the 26 year old led the Broncos in rushing yards with 1,038 and 10 scores ranking him as the fourth-highest scoring back in fantasy, he took his talents to South Beach. But do not expect a Lebron-like performance from the former Bronco, as 2013 was by far the most action Moreno has seen as a professional.
Moreno will not see the 241 carries he saw last season with Denver in Miami as Lamar Miller will factor heavily into the team’s offense as well. Furthermore, the Dolphins’ passing attack is a far cry from Peyton Manning’s Broncos so more defensive focus will be thrown Moreno’s way. To cap it all off, Miami’s offensive line was abysmal a season ago, and while it did improve this offseason, it is far from a capable starting unit. The Dolphin’s depth, game plan, and lack of talent on the offensive line will all combine to cost Moreno valuable fantasy points in 2014.
Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings
Vikings fans look away as your favorite player’s time in the sun may be coming to a close. At 29 with over 2,000 carriers the Peterson era of dominance is fading, albeit slowly. While I fully expect AP to be fantasy relevant as an RB-1 this year, the numbers are beginning to support a decline in production, not to mention his injury history. While Peterson finished eighth in fantasy points despite missing two games in 2013, a new regime in Minnesota will surely look to limit his carries and prolong the inevitable: his departure from the game. Peterson will most definitely contribute in a big way for the 2014 Vikings, but his time as the most dominant force in fantasy football is over. It is a shame to watch one of the great's go, but it has been a long time since something like this happened for Peterson:
Fred Jackson, Buffalo Bills
No one expected Jackson to score the 10th most points in fantasy in 2013, just as nobody will see the now 33 year old to repeat his performance. Jackson’s age plus his pairing with C.J. Spiller and new-acquisition Bryce Brown will take a chunk out of his 206 carry total from last season. Though Jackson is proving to be one of the best rushers after the age of 30 in NFL history, the Bills running back cannot keep up this pace forever. While he will still be a significant part of Buffalo’s offense this year, do not expect consecutive top 10 finishes from this fossil.
Marshawn Lynch, Seattle Seahawks
From the nickname “Beast Mode” to a Super Bowl ring, Seattle’s top dog in the rushing game has it all. Now less than 250 carries away from the dreaded 2,000 touch mark, Lynch’s eight-year career is in the twilight of its existence. To make matters worse for Lynch’s owners, the dreadlocked Adonis has topped 300 carries in two of the last three seasons, which is a tremendous amount of work for the type of physicality Lynch employs on his rushes.
Added to Lynch’s wear and tear is the talent on Seattle’s roster as many believe both Christine Michael and Robert Turbin could start for a third of the league’s teams. Expect both to chip into Lynch’s total this year. While Beast Mode will certainly see plenty of action in 2014, rostering Michael and maybe even Turbin can help against this potential regression.