Week 1 has a number of intriguing fantasy matchups to kick off the 2013 season, one of which is definitely Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks traveling to Carolina to take on the Panthers and Cam Newton. This is going to be an electric game, with two young teams going head-to-head, each led by extremely talented, dual-threat quarterbacks.
Alas, only one can come out on top, both on the field and in the fantasy realm. Which will it be? Keep reading to find out.
Russell Wilson - Seattle Seahawks
As I already covered in my fantasy football player profile earlier this offseason, Wilson blew everyone away when he burst onto the scene in 2012, setting the NFL record for touchdowns in a season by a rookie quarterback and finishing the season as the 10th best fantasy quarterback with an impressive 276 total points and 17 points per game.
While Wilson is highly talented and surrounded by quality players and also plays behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, he struggled on the road last year. Wilson’s 1,614 passing yards and 63.8 completion percentage on the road are very comparable to his home numbers (1,504 yards and 64.6 percent), but his yards per attempt go down by 2.12 yards per - plus he threw only 9 of his 26 touchdowns and eight of his 10 interceptions away from home. He’ll have to show that he has grown headed into Year 2 and he can improve greatly on his home/road splits. Carolina’s defense is good, but if Seattle’s offensive line can give Wilson some time in the pocket, he’ll be able to pick apart the Panthers’ iffy secondary pretty easily.
Cam Newton - Carolina Panthers
Newton may have had his ups and downs last season, but one thing's for certain: when he was on his game, boy was he on. In 2012, Newton finished as the fourth best fantasy quarterback and had seven weeks with over 20 fantasy points, 10 weeks with over 15 and only had one week with less than 10.
Newton has quality targets in Steve Smith and Greg Olsen and will be looking to leave on DeAngelo Williams as the primary running back for the first time in his career. The slight advantage for Newton owners here is that the Panthers will rely more on Newton in the running game with Jonathan Stewart out, whereas the Seahawks still have Marshawn Lynch who you know they will pound the ball with. Newton will get a few extra carries to pad his stats.
But owners should beware. Much like Wilson struggled on the road last season, Newton actually struggled a bit at home. He threw for 231 less yards, saw a drop of 1.12 yards averaged per attempt, threw three less touchdowns and two more interceptions. While you shouldn’t lose sleep over this, it is something to be mindful of.
Conclusion
In the end, the numbers are going to be very close. Newton is going up against one of the best defenses in the league, but Carolina’s defense shouldn’t be overlooked and will give Wilson problems at times. The difference makers here will be Newton’s extra rushing attempts like I said before, and also the fact that Carolina likes to go more vertical with their passing game and throw the ball more often, whereas Seattle runs a more conventional West Coast Offense and relies on yards after the catch and their power run scheme behind Lynch. This means that Newton will finish with slightly more passing yards (and likely touchdowns because of Lynch’s goal-line carries) - but you really can’t go wrong with either because of how close it will be.
Statistical Projections
Wilson: 16 completions for 191 yards, six rushing attempts for 32 yards and one passing touchdown.
Newton: 18 completions for 228 yards, seven rushing attempts for 43 yards, one passing and one rushing touchdown and one interception.