Week 11 is upon us. This week features a few matchups at Quarterback that have the potential for a lot of fireworks, but none more so than Mathew Stafford and the Lions vs Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. In Week 17 of last year when they last met, (with Rodgers watching from the sidelines) Stafford and Packers’ backup Matt Flynn threw for a combined 1000 yards and 11 touchdowns. With Rodgers and Stafford set to square off for the first of two matchups in the next four weeks; who is the better fantasy option at quarterback? Let’s break it down and decide.
At first glance, from a historical and Fantasy perspective, Rodgers is the hands-down obvious choice. Rodgers is the top rated Fantasy quarterback this season, with 201 points thus far. Stafford is ranked seventh with 166 points. On the defensive side; the Packers are in the middle of the pack, ranked 15th with 70 points. The lions are fourth-from-last at 28th with a meager 43 points. So, Rodgers is the obvious choice; right? Eh, not so fast.
Upon further review of the actual numbers, we’re left with a less clear answer. The Lions’ pass defense is ranked seventh in the NFL in yards allowed per game (213), while the Packers’ is ranked 21st at 243 per. The Lions’ secondary has continued to look better in recent weeks, while the Packers has been inconsistent and really hurting from the injury to star corner-turned-safety Charles Woodson. With sack-machine Clay Mathews also sidelined with a hamstring injury, the Packers’ defense will struggle to put pressure on Stafford. The Packers inability to establish a solid running game has also allowed teams to sit back in coverage more than usual.
Another problem for both quarterbacks will be their offensive lines. Both are banged up and have been inconsistent, at best, all season. Limiting pressure on the QB and allowing him time to let the play develop and go through his progressions will be a huge factor.
The deciding factors, through all of this though, will be two things:
1. Green Bay’s ball-hawking secondary: Yes they give up a lot of yards, and big third-down plays, but they’re also sixth in the league with 10 team interceptions.
2. Detroit’s lack of receiving threats. Besides Calvin Johnson and, to a lesser extent, tightend’s Tony Scheffler and Brandon Pettigrew, the Lions lack dependable, big play receiving threats. Rodgers has stand-out, dependable, big play Receivers in Jordy Nelson, James Jones, rising-stars Randall Cobb and Tom Crabtree, as well as inconsistent, but hyper-talented hybrid Jermichal finley.
In the end, if you’re lucky enough to have both of these Fantasy juggernauts on your squad, Aaron Rodgers is the man to start. But if you aren’t so blessed, Mathew Stafford is a great choice to start this week against the Packers.
Week 11 Fantasy Projections: Rodgers 24 points, Stafford 19.