Following a wild trio of games on Thanksgiving, Week 12 is officially in full swing. Sunday brings us a great game at the Meadow Lands, the rematch of the 2011 NFC Divisional Playoff between the Green Bay Packers and the New York Giants. Last year, Eli Manning and the Giants came out swinging, shocking the world by sending a 15-win Packers' team home. Manning out played MVP Aaron Rodgers, racking up 330 yards and three touchdowns, as opposed to Rodgers’ 264 yards and two touchdowns. Rodgers and the Packers are looking for redemption, and to continue their five game winning streaking against a sluggish, under-performing Manning and Company. Who will come out on top? Let’s find out!
At first glance, it would appear that the streaking Rodgers will outperform the struggling Manning, but a more in-depth look at the numbers reveals it could end up being a lot closer. A few key factors:
1. Defensive Pressure on the Quarterback
Despite an injury-ravaged linebacker corps, the Packers’ defense has been able to put pressure on quarterbacks all season, leading the league with 33 team sacks. Last week, with Clay Matthews out with a hamstring injury, the Packers really showed their strength of depth; sacking Lions’ quarterback Matthew Stafford five times. With Mathews out again this week, young players like linebacker Dezman Moses will need to continue to step up big. If the Packers can continually get to Manning and pressure him, it will be a long day for Giants fans.
2. Secondary
On paper, the pass defense for both teams is very similar. The Giants are allowing 257 yards through the air each game (ranked 25th in the NFL), have given up 17 touchdowns (12th) and have picked off 17 passes (2nd). Meanwhile, the Packers are allowing slightly less passing yards at 244 (21st), have given up less touchdowns with 14 (8th) but have intercepted less passes, with 12(7th).
Both teams also struggle heavily to stop third down conversions, and give up at least one big 20-plus yard pass per game.
The difference maker here will be which quarterback makes better passes, and which group of receivers run the cleanest routes.
3. Red Zone Efficiency
Rodgers and the Packers have been dominant from inside the 20 this season, scoring touchdowns on 67.86 percent of all trips, good for second in the NFL. The Giants, on the other hand, have been terrible inside the 20. Despite leading the league with 41 visits to the red zone, they’re scoring touchdowns just 43.9 percent of the time, 26th worst in the league.
The Giants will try to remedy this situation with running Back Andre Brown, but the Packers’ red zone defense should prove to be too much to overcome.
4. Depth of Receiving Threats
Rodgers is the easy winner here. He has no shortage of dependable, big play targets to throw to. Manning, unfortunately, has very little to count on besides Wide Receiver Victor Cruz and Tight End Martellus Bennett. Look for Giants’ head coach Tom Coughlin to take some pressure off of Manning and slightly increase Brown’s workload.
In the end, Rodgers and the Packers should continue their winning ways, getting the best of Manning and the Giants. Rodgers is a definite start, but I would sit Manning if possible. Better waiver wire options include Colin Kaepernick and Chad Henne.
Week 12 fantasy predictions: Rodgers 22 points, Manning 12 points.