As the start of the 2012 NFL season approached some time ago, quarterbacks Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick were the purported No. 2’s on their respective teams’ depth charts.
The Seahawks invested substantially in free agent Matt Flynn and Alex Smith was the 49ers’ incumbent starter coming off an exceptional 13-3 season. Wilson was a 5’11’’ third-round rookie, and Kaepernick presumably needed more development after his pistol-quarterbacking days at Nevada.
Well, as we now find ourselves on the eve of Week 16, Flynn and Smith are mere afterthoughts in light of their teams’ immense success with the rookie and second-year man at the helm. And now, Wilson and Kaepernick will engage in a head-to-head battle for the first time—with the drama intensified by the playoff seeding implications for both Seattle and San Francisco.
But, as it concerns fantasy owners, there are also serious playoff ramifications with teams squaring off in respective postseason finales.
I, for one, am matched up with my league’s overwhelmingly dominant team for first-place bragging rights. Said opponent has Kaepernick as his starting QB and I have Seattle as my starting defense to boot.
(There might even be a fine bottle of over-proofed bourbon on the line as well.)
While my real-life allegiance resides with Kaepernick and the 49ers, and fantasy allegiance with the Hawks’ D, I must maintain some objectivity here.
With commitment to unbiased analysis in mind, let’s break down Wilson and Kaepernick’s fantasy prospects as we enter the championship rounds of the 2012 fantasy football season.
Russell Wilson
(14 games) 222-of-353, 2,697 YDS, 62.9 %, 7.64 AVG, 21 TD, 9 INT, 3 FUM, 68.7 QBR, 95.5 RAT
78 ATT, 402 YDS, 5.2 AVG, 3 TD
226.08 PTS, 16.15/G, 98.92 Home (16.45/6G), 127.16 Road (15.90/8G), 39.40 HI, 1.80 L
It goes without saying that Wilson has produced some eye-popping numbers as a rookie. He is the complete package in beating teams with both his arm and legs, and has the most passing touchdowns among first-year QBs. He also ranks above Matt Schaub, Josh Freeman and, yes, even Eli Manning.
Wilson has averaged more points per game in the confines of CenturyLink Field. But he has actually played far better without the help of “12th Man” over the past six games.
Dating back to Week 9, he has put up 20.76, 26.82 and, most recently, a monster 39.40 points against Buffalo on the road. At home during that six-game span, however, Wilson accumulated totals of 21.62, 16.92 and a season-low 9.12 points against the Cardinals.
Moreover, Wilson produced his second-worst statistical output against the 49ers earlier this season. San Francisco’s punishing defense held him to 132 total yards (10 rushing) and 3.88 fantasy points. It also forced an interception and notched two sacks.
There’s no denying that Wilson has greatly improved since Week 7. I certainly project more total yardage and two touchdowns from him during this second matchup.
On the other hand, Seattle will consistently feed the rock to running back Marshawn Lynch. The powerful back has proven quite troublesome for the 49ers D with a 103-yard output (5.3 average) earlier this year and 100-plus and a TD in last year’s Week 16 matchup.
Plus, the 49ers fifth-ranked passing D shut down the No. 1 fantasy quarterback (and player) last week on his home turf. Yes, Tom Brady threw for over 400 yards and mounted a ridiculous comeback. But he also threw two picks, suffered two sacks and was abysmal on third downs due to the efforts of San Francisco’s defense.
Wilson cannot expect to dominate the way he did against Buffalo’s criminally bad run defense ranked No. 30 in the league. The 49ers will simply not allow three rushing TDs to a QB—considering they’ve given up a total of six all season (second-fewest in the league).
Perhaps a touchdown on a naked bootleg following a fake to Lynch, and goal-line fade to Sidney Rice (if healthy) or Zach Miller, but certainly not four total TDs and 39.40 fantasy points.
It is the 49ers No. 2 overall and No. 1 scoring contingent we’re talking about here.
Colin Kaepernick
(11 Games, 5 Starts) 101-of-154, 1,294 YDS, 65.6 %, 8.40 AVG, 7 TD, 2 INT, 2 FUM, 79.6 QBR, 101.5 RAT
53 ATT, 379 YDS, 7.2 AVG, 5 TD
139.46 PTS, 12.68/G, 54.7 Home (18.23/3G), 60.1 Road (20.03/3G), 25.44 HI, 14.72 L
Note: Has started five games, played the majority of another after replacing Smith (Week 10) and contributed sparingly in five other games.
Kaepernick has assumed leadership of the 49ers since replacing Smith in the second quarter of Week 10. In doing so, he has produced a 4-1-1 record and taken the league by storm along with Wilson, Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III.
Also like those aforementioned young QBs, Kaepernick can beat teams in myriad ways.
His best rushing performance came against the Rams in his first real NFL action to the tune of eight carries for 66 yards and a TD. He also produced a season-high 84 yards in the second matchup with St. Louis and 53 yards and a score against the Dolphins.
In addition to his dynamic abilities outside the pocket, Kaepernick showed that he can be just as deadly within it. He burned the vaunted Patriots for four TDs, including scores of 27, 34 and 38 yards. He missed a few open receivers and threw an interception on a questionable deep ball, but his decision-making was spot on otherwise.
Kap has been a bit more prolific on the road overall as well. His 25.44-point performance in New England in Week 15 was his highest total this year. A season-high against a team with multiple 20-game winning streaks and a Hall of Fame coach-quarterback tandem is one fine achievement.
For this matchup with Seattle, Kaepernick will potentially face the most accomplished secondary so far in his young career. The Seahawks boast the No. 3 passing defense, having limited the opposition to 197.6 yards per game, 13 total TDs and grabbing 16 interceptions. They’re also tied with the 49ers with 35 sacks.
However, Seattle will already be without three-interception man and No. 2 corner Brandon Browner (suspension). It’s also been practicing this week without its No. 1 CB Richard Sherman, who leads the team with six picks and 19 pass breakups. Sherman has been at the league office Thursday and Friday appealing his own four-game suspension.
So, at full strength, the Seahawks have surrendered the second-fewest points on the gridiron (219) and fewest points to opposing quarterbacks in fantasy box scores (11.88/G).
But without Browner and with a practice-deficient Sherman and reliance on backup defensive backs, this unit might fall well short of its season-long dominance.
Kaepernick, Michael Crabtree and other 49ers pass-catchers certainly stand to reap the benefits if so. Then again, Frank Gore rushed for a season-high 131 yards against Seattle in Week 7. The 49ers will undoubtedly feature a strong rushing attack in a similar fashion to the Lynch-led Hawks.
Will it be enough to diminish his overall performance and lead to a lower fantasy output than Wilson?
Prediction
Wilson will account for two touchdowns (1 pass, 1 rush) and just over 200 total yards. He’ll also throw a pick and end with 17 fantasy points in a Seattle loss.
Kaepernick will have the upper hand with three scores (2 pass, 1 rush) and 240 total yards. Those numbers will be sufficient in overcoming his interception and lost fumble. Give him 22 fantasy points for his winning efforts.
Wilson comes back down to Earth, while Kaepernick emerges once again from harsh enemy territory with the thrill of victory.
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