I would like you to unearth your nearest dictionary, and flip to the following definitions: determination and integrity. Next to each of these definitions, you'll find a picture of a man who looks oddly familiar. That man is Fred Jackson.
For a couple of years now, us football fans have been wondering how Jackson has been going so strong at such an old age. Jackson was supposed to enter the football abyss years ago - he was supposed to join that exclusive club that had already devoured the careers of Shaun Alexander and Edgerrin James.
Yet, at 32 years old, he rushed for a career-high nine touchdowns and a solid 4.3 yards per carry a season ago. When is the fall off actually coming? Will he be Marcus Allen type player, who played well until he was 37 years old? Or will he be like Curtis Martin, who had really terrific years after 30, but only played until he was 33?
Freddy's Odometer
Jackson is relatively untouched in terms of mileage on a running back, as he's played just four seasons in the NFL before turning 30. In those four seasons, he never ran the ball more than 237 times in a single campaign, only totaling 647 carries before hitting the age of 30.
As a comparison, Marcus Allen had 1,781 career attempts before turning 30, a very modest average of 223 carries per season. Martin, on the other hand, had 2,604 carries before turning 30, the sixth-most all time before hitting that age milestone. It's pretty evident as to why Martin retired at the age of 32, while Allen played on till 37.
Jackson is at the age now where even the best backs of all-time have had their "free falls," so to speak. Marshall Faulk ran for 1,382 yards at 28, but stumbled to 774 at age 31. Eddie George hit the 1,000 yard mark at age 30, but could barely get 400 at 31 years old. The great Eric Dickerson rushed for over 1,300 yards at 29, but never hit 750 in the seasons he played at ages 30 to 33.
As a matter of fact, Jackson is doing the complete opposite of falling of the proverbial "running back cliff." The season that he had last year was better than almost any running back at his age. Ever. In fact, only two other players since 1970 have had at least 200 carries while averaging at least 4.30 yards per carry at 32: Ricky Williams and Walter Payton.
Jackson finished the season with 890 rushing yards and 9 rushing touchdowns. He's also effective in the passing game, where he totaled 47 catches for almost 400 yards and a score. Only nine other players have had seasons in which they rushed for over 800 yards and caught over 300 yards at age 31 or older.
Jackson's Fantasy Value
In terms of fantasy, Jackson was a top-10 running back last year. He had more fantasy points than the likes of Frank Gore, Alfred Morris, and Danny Woodhead, among others. He had more rushing yards than rookie standout Le'Veon Bell, Rashad Jennings, and Patriot's back LeGarette Blunt. He also had more touchdowns than Rams' back Zac Stacy, Lions' Joique Bell, and former-Titan Chris Johnson.
Freddy isn't showing any signs of slowing up, even with the track record of backs in their 30's. Jackson's 13.90 Rushing Net Expected Points total a season ago - the number of expected points a runner contributes to his team, kind of like WAR - was almost identical to Jamaal Charles' 13.93 score, and ranked seventh overall in terms of running backs.
Throughout last season, the Coe College alumni had 96 Rushing Successes, or rushes the positively effected his Rushing NEP, which equated to a 46.38% Success Rate. In other words, a little over 46% of his touches were positive NEP runs, which ranked 11th. He also ranked top ten in Rushing NEP/P, or rushing net expected points per carry.
What to expect in 2014 from Jackson
How the Bills split carries between Freddy and C.J. Spiller has been an anomaly since Spiller entered the league in 2009. Last season, Jackson accounted for 37.7% of the team's carries, while Spiller took 36.9%. Due to Jackson's age, one has to imagine Spiller will get more carries in 2014 if he stays healthy. Where Jackson's decrease in carries hurts the fantasy owner, one thing will stay constant- Goal-line carries. Last season, seven of Jackson's nine touchdowns came from inside the five yard line. In fact, Spiller only has two scores in his career that came from inside the five, both of which, Jackson didn't play in the game.
Buffalo is a run-heavy team, and that will not change this season. The Bills had the most carries in the league last year, at 546. They were also the only team in the league that had two players over 200 carries, and 230 total touches. In terms of the two running backs, and putting them up against eachother for fantasy purposes, C.J. Spiller has proven to be a boom-or-bust player. In the last two years, he's had eight games where he went over 100 yards rushing. In six of those games, he needed at least one rush of 35 yards or more, and in seven of the eight, a rush of 20 or more.
Fred Jackson is just flat out the more consistent fantasy performer. In ten of the 16 games last year, Jackson put up double digit points, while Spiller only did it five times. The entire season, Spiller had two rushing touchdowns, while Jackson had a touchdown in eight different games. While Spiller missed one game last season, Fred Jackson still out-scored him in terms of fantasy points, by a mile. Jackson's 2013 total (ESPN scoring) was at 175, while Spiller barely broke 100 points, at 109.
Through all the stats, it's safe to say Freddy Jackson could have three or four more real solid years for the Bills, or so he says personally.. What drives him the most, is the 70,000 plus loyal fans that show up to the Ralph every Sunday, and chant his name. These next couple years, the Bills should be a real tough team on the gridiron, with new Defensive Coordinator Jim Schwartz. Sprinkle in off-season additions Mike Williams, Bryce Brown, and Sammy Watkins, it could be a scary football team. Fred Jackson might just be the face of the Buffalo Bills team that breaks the playoff curse.