The Green Bay Packers had a pretty good season in 2012, as is evident by their 11-5 regular season record and NFC North Division title. But for as talented and successful as the team was, they had some serious problems. The terrible offensive line allowed reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers to be sacked a team-record 53 times, (as usual) there was no discernible running game, and the defensive squad was laughable, at best.
Green Bay did a terrific job of addressing all of their problems in the 2013 NFL Draft, nabbing talented defensive end Datone Jones to bolster their pass rush, two of the three best running backs available in Eddie Lacy and Johnathan Franklin and seriously addressed the offensive line when they added J.C. Tretter and David Bakhtiari. After shuffling the offensive line for the upcoming season, Rodgers should be better protected, and the offense finally has not one, but two, dependable running backs to help balance out the offense. 2013 Looks to be a big year for the Packers both on the field, and in the fantasy football realm. Let’s take a look at some analysis and projections for the offensive stars.
Fantasy Projections
Aaron Rodgers, Quarterback
Compared to his MVP 2011 season, 2012 could be considered a “down year” for Rodgers, despite putting up 4,295 passing yards, 39 touchdowns and finishing second to Drew Brees, by two points, for the most fantasy points of the year. 2013 will definitely be different though, with a revamped offensive line and finally a reliable running game to depend on. It really can’t be stated enough how much better Rodgers and the passing game will be with the inclusion of Franklin and Lacy in the backfield. Expect big, big things from Mr. Rodgers in 2013.
Projected Statistics: 4,700 passing yards, 44 touchdowns, 9 interceptions, 240 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns.
Johnathan Franklin, Running Back
Yes, Franklin was the second running back Green Bay selected, but the fourth round pick is poised to have a huge rookie season in the Packers’ offense. The four-year starter at UCLA racked up some impressive numbers, amassing 4,403 rushing yards, 517 receiving yards (323 of which came in his senior season alone) and 34 total touchdowns. Franklin is a true dual-threat running, who can eat up yards up the middle or on the outside, as well as make a big splash in the passing game as a receiver in the flat or on check downs.
Look for Franklin to be a feature of the offense in 2013 and beyond, and finish the season with better numbers than his fellow back Lacy. He’ll likely be nothing better than a FLEX option in 2013 due to Lacy’s presence on the roster, but could develop into a solid RB2 option in the future and is a great pickup in dynasty leagues.
Projected Statistics: 850 rushing yards, 300 receiving yards and 5 total touchdowns.
Eddie Lacy, Running Back
Lacy was the second-overall running back selected in April’s draft, and Packers’ fans everywhere immediated rejoiced. “Finally we’ll have a balanced offense” was something frequently heard throughout Wisconsin and on social media. At the time, fans had a real reason to cheer. Lacy put up impressive numbers in his only year as a starter at Alabama and looked like he would be a great fit to round out the Packers’ offense. But after news of a nagging foot injury, as well as the selection of Franklin, Lacy’s role in the Packers’ offense looks to be diminished just a bit from what we forecasted immediately after the selection at the end of the second round.
Unless Franklin struggles early on or suffers an injury, Lacy will more than likely be the No. 2 back, and looked to for pass protection, short yardage, third down and goal-line situations. Now this isn’t such a bad thing. I like to call players like this “TD Vultures” (think Michael Bush or Mike Tolbert) because they might not get you a ton of points on yards or receptions, but they may score 2-3 touchdowns per game. In most standard-scoring leagues, this is the type of player you love to have on your roster. So unless Franklin can punch the ball in from 10-plus yards out, Lacy will likely get most of the rushing touchdowns inside the 20.
Projected Statistics: 450 rushing yards, 250 receiving yards and nine total touchdowns.
Randall Cobb, Wide Receiver
In his sophomore campaign in 2012, Cobb stepped up and established himself as Rodgers’ new go-to guy with Greg Jennings missing time due to injury and Jermichael Finley being, well, himself. Cobb finished the season ranked 18th amongst receivers in fantasy production, which would’ve made him a solid WR2 option at the time.
In 2013, with Jennings moving west across the Mississippi and Finley still a big question mark, Cobb will permanently become the No. 1 receiver. There’s no reason to believe his numbers will decline in his third season, and his 78-percent catch rate was the best among receivers that played in all 16 regular season games. Cobb will be a fringe WR1 option in standard scoring leagues, and will be even more valuable in PPR leagues. Don’t sleep on this kid.
Projected Statistics: 1,300 receiving yards, 170 rushing yards and 12 total touchdowns.
James Jones, WIde Receiver
Jones had a huge breakout year last season, scoring a league-best 14 touchdowns among receivers and finishing the season as the 16th best with 162 fantasy points. While there’s no reason to believe Jones won’t receive a bulk of Rodgers’ targets once again in 2013; his past issues with dropped passes likely means a slight regression from last year's outstanding numbers.
In the end, Jones is still a great WR2 option for all redraft leagues, but his uncertain future with Green Bay beyond 2013 make him a slight risk in dynasty leagues.
Projected Statistics: 72 receptions, 1,020 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns.
Jordy Nelson, Wide Receiver
Despite missing four games due to injury in 2012, Nelson was still able to pull down 49 catches for 745 yards and seven touchdowns. That was good enough for 119 total fantasy points on the season, which ranked him 29th among receivers for the year. If Nelson can stay healthy and put up big numbers, he will have another solid season in 2013.
In terms of value, Nelson is a decent WR2 option if he can stay healthy for an entire season, but his injury risk means you should approach with caution before adding Nelson to your dynasty roster.
Projected Statistics: 65 receptions, 1,000 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns.
Jermichael Finley, Tight End
When he’s performing up to his potential, Finley is one of the most talented pass catching tight ends in the NFL. But his inconsistent (at best) hands and mercurial personality make it hard to put a finger on his future production. Even with said problems in 2012, Finley was still able to finish the season as the 19th best tight end with 76 total fantasy points.
If Finley continues to struggle in 2013, you can expect similar numbers to last year, which will make him a low-end TE2 option in redraft leagues, but if he can improve and be a bigger part of the offense; his value will bump up 4-5 spots. As far as dynasty leagues are concerned, this is likely Finley’s last season with the Packers, so he’s a bit of a risk for the future, not knowing who his quarterback will be or what offense he’ll be a part of.
Projected Statistics: 48 receptions, 550 receiving yards and five touchdowns.