We have all been there before. You are picking towards the bottom of the first round and all of the supposedly elite running backs are gone. How can you avoid reaching for the most important position in fantasy football while still being able to field a solid running back group?
Sure you can go out there and reach for a C.J. Anderson or Jeremy Hill. Heck, maybe even an Arian Foster will be available. All three of these running backs provide top-10 fantasy potential. In reality, their value suggests that it makes sense you pick them up in Round 1 and roll with another position just a few picks later.
We are here to throw that worn-out belief out the window.
Running through our mock draft simulator, and picking at eight, here is what our board looks like. Remember, we are going to select just a few picks later in Round 2.
Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles, Eddie Lacy, Le'Veon Bell, Marshawn Lynch and Matt Forte are all off the board at running back. Meanwhile, Rob Gronkowski is the only other player at a different position that has been selected.
We could run 100 different simulations and get a different result within the first round each time. Your real draft may actually include someone who enjoys taking a quarterback in the first round. Before counting your blessings there, remember most re-drafts will include one or two outliers. That's just the way it is. Though, for the most part, it will be running back early and often.
In this situation, we are left choosing between the seventh-best running back or top players at both quarterback and wide receiver. Again, Arian Foster may very well be a decent pick.
But would he represent the best value?
Antonio Brown, Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas all remain on the board. As do Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers at quarterback.
Assuming we haven't lost our marbles and don't plan on going quarterback, the choice is now between a trio of elite wide receivers. In this case, I am going to go with Brown due to the contract issues arising with Bryant and Thomas. It surely doesn't hurt that Brown led all wide receivers with 129 receptions and nearly 1,700 yards last season.
Taking that gamble, and going wide receiver at eight, we are now left waiting to see what happens over the next several selections before we pick at 17 (standard 12-team league). Luckily, we are now left with LeSean McCoy, Alfred Morris, Frank Gore and even Carlos Hyde as potential RB1 options in Round 2. Without hesitation, pick up that running back and move on to Round 3. In this instance, we pick Shady.
Now picking 32nd overall in the third round, Morris remains on the board. That's obviously the run of the luck, but a similar path may occur in your regular drafts. After all, six of the first seven teams picking ahead of you in Round 1 went running back. That will leave a nice stretch in between the eighth and 32nd picks without a running back being selected at all.
So instead of reaching for a C.J. Anderson in the first round, we are able to nab the top fantasy receiver in the game as well as two potential RB1 options heading into Round 4.
At this point, you decide between getting that WR2 option or tripling down at running back in Round 5. It's my personal opinion, and obviously depending on how the board plays out, that you go running back there as well.
In the case of this specific simulator, Carlos Hyde, Frank Gore and Lamar Miller went in between our picks in Round 4 and Round 5. If that's the case, avoid reaching for a running back outside of the top 20 in ADP and go either quarterback, wide receiver or tight end. If one of the top-20 running backs are still on the board, don't flinch.
This was a quick live analysis of one simulator. There's obviously no guaranteed that your regular draft will play out anywhere near like this one did.
With that said, here's a look at our final draft haul:
You may not agree with some of our selections in the mid rounds, but that's not the point of this exercise. Instead, it's to show you just how a draft that was top heavy at running back initially might play out. Notice how we nabbed PPR stud C.J. Spiller in the sixth round? He's going to be a killer FLEX option in leagues that value receptions from running backs.
By still nabbing four running backs in the first seven rounds, we were then able to double down on quarterback as the second half of the draft played out. That enabled us to pick up to QB1 options in Matthew Stafford and Ryan Tannehill. In doing so, we can play matchups as it relates to who starts on a given week.
There's a happy medium to be found here. While avoiding a running back in Round 1 can be a sound philosophy, you need to then still be able to find your top-three players at that position before the second half the draft comes calling.
Try this for yourself on our free mock draft simulator.