News is now coming out around the NFL at a furious pace. There was a while there on Tuesday that it seemed I was about to have a stroke every time my Tweetdeck updated. That’s a story for another time.
Lost in the shuffle here is possible fantasy football implications. Let me take a gander at just a few as they relate to the wide receiver position.
Wes Welker to the Denver Broncos
This surprise signing could have a fantasy impact on three different receivers; Welker, Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas. While the only real WR1 option out of the group was likely going to be Thomas (94 receptions, 1,434 yards, 10 touchdowns and .667 completion rate), don’t expect a whole heck of a lot of solid WR2 numbers from Decker and Welker here.
The new Patriot’ wide receiver had the fourth-most targets last season (174), while Decker tallied 122. Unless either 90 percent of Peyton Manning’s targets go to three three receivers or he puts up an average of 50 pass attempts per game, someone’s production is going to take a hit.
As the most dynamic threat on the roster, I don’t see Thomas really being impacted here. Instead, you should see Decker and Welker split the other targets; which indicates lackluster fantasy performances from both. Don’t expect over 1,100 receiving yards or more than six touchdowns from either of them. In fact, their natural regression (due to targets) suggests 900 yards and four touchdowns.
Danny Amendola to the New England Patriots
All things equal, Amendola is going to be an absolute fantasy stud pairing up with Tom Brady in New England. He put up nearly six receptions per game for the St. Louis Rams this past season and will be joining a Patriots’ receiving group that includes only Brandon Lloyd as a viable option. In addition, reports have indicated that Lloyd could get shown the door by the Patriots.
All things are not equal.
Amendola has played in 12 of a possible 32 games in his last two seasons and is a major injury concern around the world of fantasy football. You simply cannot invest a top-round pick on someone that will not be out there on a consistent basis. In addition, you have to worry about what Bill Belichick might have up his sleeve as it relates to acquiring another receiver, which could impact the amount of targets Amendola receives in ‘13. This is why we don’t conduct fantasy drafts until August; at the earliest. In terms of PPR leagues, Amendola is going to be an absolute stude; whether he players in 10 or 16 games.
Mike Wallace to the Miami Dolphins
I am not exactly sure what to make of this. After finishing 10th among wide receivers in fantasy points in 2011, Wallace struggled a great deal this past season in Pittsburgh. He finished just ahead of Miles Austin in this category in 2012 and caught just 54 percent of the passes thrown in his direction. While some of this lack of production could have had to do with Ben Roethlisberger missing time due to injury, it’s important to note that Ryan Tannehill is still in the learning process of his career and will not be anywhere near the player we saw in Big Ben from 2010 to 2011.
This leads me to believe that Wallace’s production will be somewhere between the previous two seasons. You can easily expect him to put up 1,000 yards and eight scores. But, if you are looking at top-tier fantasy production, look elsewhere.
The larger issue with this signing is the drop off we are going to see from Brian Hartline this upcoming season. Hartline, who recorded over 1,000 yards this past season, signed a five-year extension with Miami last weekend. He saw over 115 targets this past year, but only came down with receptions 57 percent of the time. In addition, Hartline scored a total of one touchdown all season. If you take his 253-yard performance against the Arizona Cardinals away, Hartline averaged just a bit over five fantasy points per outing. Don't expect much more than mid-tier FLEX numbers from the Ohio State product this upcoming season.
Anquan Boldin to the San Francisco 49ers
Little fantasy impact here. Boldin isn't going to put up stellar numbers on a continual basis; he just isn't that type of receiver. Instead, you can expect consistent production from him week in and week out. The one thing that the Boldin trade does impact (in terms of fantasy football) is Michael Crabtree. I am actually expecting the up-and-coming wide receiver to produce at a higher level with a solid receiving option next to him. Defenses just aren't going to be able to zone in on Crabtree like they were able to do at times last season. While Crabtree was a top-tier WR1 option through the last half of the season, it seems that he will be more consistent in '13 with Boldin on board.
This doesn't even take into account the fact that Crabtree will be playing a full season with Colin Kaepernick under center. I cannot state enough just how important Kaepernick will be to the continued progression of his favorite receiving target. Without sounding disrespectful to the recently departed Alex Smith, Kaepernick just opens up new avenues in the passing game. Expect 90 receptions, 1,300 yards and 13 scores from Crabtree in '13. Yes, I said it.
Percy Harvin to the Seattle Seahawks
I save the best for last. Harvin was producing like one of the best fantasy receivers in the NFL last season prior to his unfortunate injury. He did so with an average quarterback, Christian Ponder, throwing him the ball. Just imagine how good Harvin will be, if healthy, with Russell Wilson getting him the rock. That's just not fair to opposing NFC West defenses.
As with a couple different players on this list; Harvin is a bit of an injury concern. He has had to deal with migraines in the past, which could hinder his consistency in the Pacific Northwest.
When on the field, Harvin is as dynamic as they come. He will provide you with rare fantasy points on the ground, can take it the distance every time he touches the ball and is electric on intermediate routes. I expect something to the tune of 1,400 total yards and 10 scores.
Though, Harvin's addition does mean that Sidney Rice is no longer as much of a FLEX option in Seattle. He too has struggled with injuries and will be taking a backseat to Harvin in 2013. Don't expect much more than 700 yards and a couple scores from Rice this upcoming season.