On Sunday afternoon the Indianapolis Colts will travel to Denver to play the Broncos for a chance to play in the AFC Championship Game. This game is a rematch from Week 1, a game in which the Broncos were victorious. On the surface a lot of people think this is going to be a shootout, a contest to see which quarterback can out duel the other. But it's so much more than that. Here's the five biggest keys to the game:
Andrew Luck Against Denver Pass Rush
The Colts' quarterback is certainly going to have his work cut out for him on Sunday afternoon. Not only is there a good chance he's going to have to carry this offense on his back, there's a chance he's going to have to do it while running for his life. According to PFF (subscription), the Colts' offensive line had a pass blocking grade of -40.1 for the year, ranking them ninth worst in the entire league. On the other hand, the Broncos earned a PFF pass rush grade of 23.0 on the year, ranking them 12th best in the NFL. The Broncos are certainly going to have Von Miller and Demarcus Ware pinning their ears back on just about every play. If the Colts' offensive line doesn't find a way to protect Luck, he's going to end up on his back an awful lot on Sunday.
Will Vontae Davis Change the Game?
The Colts have the best cornerback in the league that just about no one talks about. He doesn't shadow the opposing team's best wide receiver, instead he stays on one side of the field like Richard Sherman in Seattle. However, Davis doesn't have the luxury of having the talent of Earl Thomas, Kam Chancellor, and Byron Maxwell surrounding him. When opposing quarterbacks have thrown it in Davis' direction, they have a quarterback rating of 38.8, better than any other cornerback in the league. He hasn't allowed a single touchdown all season either. In their Week 1 matchup the Broncos threw to Davis' receiver only five times and he only allowed one reception for five yards. Davis is the Colts' best chance on defense to change the way this game plays out.
Colts Have to Establish the Run
If the Colts want any chance at winning this game they're going to have to establish their run game. As I talked about earlier, there is a good chance Andrew Luck is going to be running for his life most of the game. The Colts can keep the Broncos' pass rush honest if they have success running the ball. There's two problems for the Colts: they rank 22nd in the league in rushing and the Broncos rank 2nd in run defense. Obviously this isn't a good combination for the Colts but they need to stay committed to the run regardless. If they can keep the Broncos honest on defense it'll open up their passing game a lot more.
Peyton Manning Against the Cold
Peyton Manning is possibly the greatest quarterback of this era. However, his age coupled with his multiple neck surgeries has had an undeniable effect on his arm strength. And, as anyone who has had any type of surgery knows, the cold weather makes you feel it more than normal. Sunday evening in Denver is supposed to be in the low 20s without the wind chill. If there is any wind or precipitation it's going to be worse for Manning. On top of all of that, in his last four starts Manning has thrown three touchdowns and six interceptions with a quarterback rating of 76.8. The cold weather could be the great equalizer in this game.
T.Y. Hilton vs Denver Secondary
T.Y. Hilton is the best wide receiver on the Colts' roster. At times he seems uncoverable. Across from him on Sunday will be either Aqib Talib or Chris Harris, both are top level cornerbacks. If the Colts are to be successful through the air, Hilton has to have a better game than he did Week 1 against the Broncos. In Week 1 Hilton had a PFF grade of -2.3. When going against Harris he was targeted three times with one reception for seven yards. When going up against Talib he was targeted five times with only one reception for eight yards. Needless to say, he needs to do better this time around.