Adrian Peterson is the best running back in the NFL. Every person outside of Philadelphia will tell you the same thing. However, in 2014 will Peterson have a down season? I think it’ll be quite the opposite actually. I expect Peterson to have a year similar to the one he had in 2012.
In 2012 Peterson had an all-time great season. He ran for 2,097 yards on 348 carries for an average of 6.0 yards per carry with 12 touchdowns. He had a PFF (subscription) rating 28.4, ranking him first among all running backs in 2012. That’s an incredible season and with a season like that in 2012, his 2013 season was bound to be a bit of a letdown.
In 2013 Peterson had a bit of a regression. He ran for 1,266 yards on 279 carries for an average of 4.5 yards per carry with 10 touchdowns. He had a PFF rating of 10.4, ranking him eleventh in the NFL out of all running backs. With a regression like that from 2012 to 2013, what’s to say he won’t regress even more in 2014?
First of all, Peterson is too good, trains too hard, and is too young to have a worse season than the one he had last season (barring injury). Second of all, the Minnesota Vikings drafted quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, who will most likely earn the starting spot either in training camp or at some point during the season. That alone will help take pressure off of Peterson. These past few seasons since Brett Favre has retired Peterson has had to get all of his yards with defenses being full aware that he was going to run it almost every time. And he still got his yards.
Another reason Peterson will have a better year is because young wide receiver Cordarrelle Patterson has another season under his belt. Patterson is extremely dangerous with the ball in his hands and this will be the year defenses will have to start respecting that. All Peterson needs is a weapon on the outside that defenses have to pay attention to so he doesn’t have to run the ball with eight or nine defenders in the box every time.
After having a subpar 2013 campaign, I would be shocked if Peterson regressed further or even had the same kind of year. I expect Peterson to be more motivated and play with a fire we didn’t see very often last season. A change in quarterback is also going to really help him reach his goals so the offense won’t be so one dimensional. While Peterson is already the best running back in the league, look for his numbers in 2014 to be able to back it up.