Edgerrin James. The Edge. He is the only player, statistically, to have a better rookie season as a running back than Doug Martin. The 31st overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft burst onto the scene with 386 rushing yards in a two week span against the Vikings and Raiders. In those two weeks, he also scored six touchdowns. Before this stretch, the Buccs were 2-4, and looking at a pretty crappy season. Martin however, lead his team to a four-game winning streak to catapult them back into relevance. The Buccs finished the season under .500, but Martin torched the NFL.
In 2013, expectations were massive. Josh Freeman and Greg Schiano were going into their second year together, and they have one of the best running backs from 2012 to give the rock to. What a disaster that turned out to be. Freeman ended up in Schiano’s doghouse, and eventually got released. Schiano got fired after the fans wanted him to walk the plank. And worst of all, Martin didn’t play much of all, and was put on injured reserve with a torn labrum early in the season.
Enter the 2014 season. Enter Lovie Smith. Enter Josh McCown. Enter Mike Evans. Expectations are even higher than they were before 2013. But one problem looms, will Doug Martin return to form?
Listen, clearly his 2013 season was awful for fantasy owners. That won’t happen again. The kid is 25 years old, he’s not the first to get injured, and won’t be the last. His rookie season, he had 317 rushes, and 49 receptions. He very well could be, and should be, in for another 300-rush, 40-catch season.
A new quarterback and system could also benefit Martin. Josh McCown played in eight games for the Bears in 2013. In those eight games, Matt Forte’s rushing stats were just as god as when Jay Cutler was starting. Forte rushed for 660 yards and four touchdowns with McCown, and 679 yards and five touchdowns with Cutler.
What does that mean? McCown knows how to hand off the ball. Does that matter? It can’t hurt, that’s for sure.
Let’s say that McCown ends up losing the starting position, and Mike Glennon starts. Martin is still in good shape. McCown had four more wins than Freeman had in 2013, and averaged eight points more a game. So, even while he was a rookie signal caller, he knew how to run an offense which will benefit Martin.
Quarterback is important in Martin’s game, due to the fact that he is such a lethal dual-threat running back. Martin had 49 receptions in his rookie year, good for 472 yards. Only three other running backs in NFL history have had such rookie years. In Martin’s 22 career games in the league, Martin has averaged 111.1 all purpose yards.
There are a couple things in Martin’s favor that proves he will have a bounce-back year. First off, it was a torn labrum, not an ACL. A running back’s shoulder is much less important than his lower body. Not to say his shoulder isn’t important, but the fact that his legs and knees are untouched is terrific.
Second, new offensive coordinator Jeff Tedford isn’t going to run him into the ground. Tedford has been quoted in the Tampa Bay Tribune as saying,
“We really had a good one-two punch in the backfield there(U of California) and I think that’s what you need. For one guy to carry the load the whole time, especially as physical as this level is, is a lot. So (we’re looking) to have two and probably three backs that can provide different things for you.’’
So, to put this in perspective, Martin isn’t going to get more than he can handle coming off the injury.Backs like Bobby Rainey and Mike James will help him shoulder the load, pun intended.
So should you be scared to draft Doug Martin to your fantasy team this season? The numbers say no. His average draft position on eDraft’s Mock Draft’s is 21, making him a low second round pick. If he slides into the third round in your fantasy draft, he could be a major steal. Should Lovie Smith be worried about Doug Martin? Not at all.
The Buccs will be a fun offensive team to watch with Tedford and Lovie running the show now, and expect the Muscle Hamster to be right in the middle of that.