2015 Review
Before the 2015 season, the Jacksonville Jaguars seemed to be a team of sleepers. There was a lot of talk about Allen Robinson as a breakout star, Blake Bortles got some fantasy love and T.J. Yeldon intrigued with his opportunity. If you went after Jaguars players in your fantasy drafts, you hit it big. It helped that the Jaguars had a bad defense that made them play catch up and get into shootouts. It all went so well that Bortles and Robinson finished top five amongst their positions in standard scoring, while Hurns finished as a top-15 fantasy wide receiver.
The running game proved to be the biggest letdown last season, though in part that's because Jacksonville would get into those high scoring games or have to come from behind, as mentioned above. Yeldon missed four games and the Jaguars also seemed to take him off the field when they got near the goal line, which limited his fantasy appeal and kept him outside the top 30 of fantasy running backs.
Jacksonville has carefully collected and developed young talent over the years and it led to the first big breakthrough. It is an ideal situation from a dynasty and football perspective given how young the talent is and how well they have developed so far. Of course, going into the 2016 season, we may see things be a bit different.
Quarterback: Blake Bortles
Bortles ascended into fantasy greatness in just his second season in the NFL. While he still completed under 60 percent of passes, in fact his completion percentage dropped from 58.9 as a rookie to 58.6 percent in 2015, Bortles still found a way to put up ridiculous numbers. His 35 touchdowns tied for the second most in the NFL and he added two additional touchdowns on the ground. Jacksonville opened up their offense more for the second-year quarterback as he received more opportunities to unleash the deep ball and also throw more inside the red zone.
Of course, part of the reason for Bortles great fantasy numbers was the 606 pass attempts he made last season. sixth-most in the NFL, a trend that won't continue in 2016. Jacksonville's defense will look much different in 2016 and be much improved from the group they trotted out there last season. As a result, the Jaguars will have leads more consistently and won't need Bortles to chuck it down field and attempt 40 passes a game.
We likely won't see Bortles be a top-five fantasy quarterback again. He will see an improved running game behind him, he will be asked to protect leads more frequently, which should cut down on the interceptions and will increase his completion percentage, but result in a drop in passing yards. In the likeliest scenario, Bortles sees his touchdowns from last season drop from 35 to 28, with his passing yards in the 4,200 range though a drop in interceptions from 18 to around 14, could help limit some of the lost fantasy appeal.
Running Back: Chris Ivory and T.J. Yeldon
Ivory hit it big last season with a career-high in rushing yards (1,070) and touchdowns (eight), then turned it into a big deal with the Jaguars. From a real life perspective it's great to see a young player land a big contract, but it was a blow from a fantasy perspective. Running back by committee has become an even larger trend in the NFL and Jacksonville will employ it in a big way this year. In looking at how the touches will be divided, it's certainly not ideal for fantasy owners.
Both backs have similar size, though Jacksonville didn't seem to trust Yeldon near the goal line last season, so that's a role that should likely go to Ivory. The touchdown opportunities are a big plus in favor of Ivory. It gives him a chance to get near six to seven touchdowns if all goes well, but this is also a loaded offense. As a result, any shot of Ivory reaching even 900 rushing yards, with how much time he will split with Yeldon, seems doubtful.
As for Yeldon, he entered the offseason as a potential fantasy stud who would develop into a major role, then that all changed. While it's disappointing that the role that could have been as gone, there are still some positives. Jacksonville should remain more of a pass-oriented offense this season and that favors Yeldon over Ivory, given the ability Yeldon showed to catch passes out of the backfield last season. He has similar size to Ivory, so there shouldn't be any fear of him losing a chunk of work in the running game. Because he holds the advantage as a receiver, it should help him get closer to the 800-900 total yard mark that Ivory might be unable to reach.
In the end because of how much the touches will be split, it's hard to trust either as an every-week RB2 and more safely appear to be good FLEX options on a weekly basis, with Yeldon obviously holding a much bigger edge in PPR leagues.
Wide Receiver:: Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns and Rashad Greene
The emergence of Robinson and Hurns last season was one of the biggest stories in all of football. In just his second season, Robinson established himself as one of the best wide receivers in all of football, not just amongst his age group. Whether it was his work in the red zone, coming down with contested catches deep down the field or just helping move the chains, Robinson was always there.
In 15 games last season, Robinson was targeted 151 times and hauled in 80 passes for 1,400 yards and 14 touchdowns. He was especially deadly inside the opponent's 20, where a majority of his touchdowns came from. Robinson was targeted 22 times inside the 20, tied for third most amongst receivers last season, and 12 of his 14 touchdowns came on plays from inside the 20-yard line, per Pro Football Reference. Even further into his work inside the red zone, eight of his 14 touchdowns came from inside the 10-yard line.
While Robinson certainly has all the physical abilities to keep dominating inside the end zone for touchdowns, there's likely regression coming. The addition of Ivory will further aid to Jacksonville's efforts to improve its running game and be more effective running the ball inside the 10. In addition, Jacksonville will have Julius Thomas healthy this season, which will also take some away from some of Robinson's targets. As a result, there is some fantasy regression coming for A-Rob, but he will almost certainly remain a top-10 fantasy receiver.
With A-Rob due for some statistical regression, Hurns will also take a hit. It's not a knock on him, he showed last season that he has plenty of talent, size, instincts and of course the hands to be an excellent No. 2 receiver in the NFL. But Hurns situation is similar to Robinson's he is just going to feel the impact even more from the new and improved Jaguars team. He surpassed 1,000 yards with 10 touchdowns on just 64 receptions last season, Hurns could see that number cut down to around 750-850 yards and six to seven touchdowns. That drop likely takes him from a top-15 fantasy receiver last year into the top-35 range.
Greene is the favorite as of now to start the season as Jacksonville's No.3 wide receiver and line up in the slot. The second-year wide out shouldn't face much tough coverage when he is on the field as opposing teams focus their efforts on Robinson, Hurns and Thomas. So the middle of the field should have some open space for Greene, the problem may come from Jacksonville rolling out more two-tight end, two-receiver sets this season. Greene's fantasy value is really limited this season, but would absolutely be worth targeting if one of Robinson or Hurns went down.
Tight End: Julius Thomas
A big free agent signing last offseason, Thomas battled injuries in the 2015 season and played in 12 games, but also played through some ailments. He finished with just 455 yards and five touchdowns, a major step down from the numbers he put up in Denver. When he came to Jacksonville, many doubted he could put up great numbers just given doubts about Jacksonville's offense, but many of those doubts are quieter now.
We saw what Thomas could do for Jacksonville down the stretch last year, four straight games with a touchdown from mid-November to early December, a possible sign of things to come. He should be much more involved in the red zone this season, in part because he now has had more time to develop chemistry with Bortles, unlike last season when he went out early in the preseason. Like in Denver, there are wide receivers on the outside who opposing defenses have to account for and that can open the door for Thomas to make things happen with his athleticism against linebackers or safeties one-on-one. As long as he stays healthy, Thomas can be a top-seven fantasy tight end this season.