2015 Review
The Miami Dolphins were all sorts of disappointing in 2015, as they finished with a 6-10 record and saw their head coach fired mid-season. From a fantasy perspective, it wasn't much better.
Ryan Tannehill regressed from the 2015 campaign, finishing with 24 touchdowns and 12 interceptions en route to a No. 17 overall ranking among quarterbacks. Meanwhile, now former Dolphin running back Lamar Miller didn't see the necessary touches to be considered a top-end fantasy option.
Looking forward, the Dolphins' ability to be a fantasy relevant team will likely rely on the scheme new head coach Adam Gase runs. Let's check in on the team's fantasy outlook this season.
Quarterbacks: Ryan Tannehill
It's really hard to gauge how Tannehill will perform from a fantasy perspective under Adam Gase. On one hand, Jay Cutler had a tremendous 2015 season with Gase running the Chicago Bears offense. On the other hand, Gase's only other play-calling experience came with Peyton Manning under center in Denver. In that, Manning practically acted as his own play-caller with the Broncos.
What we do know is that Tannehill is coming off a 2015 campaign that saw him finish as the 17th-ranked fantasy quarterback. It wasn't about the passing yards, as Tannehill finished with 4,208 — ninth-most in the NFL. Instead, the former first-round pick struggled putting the ball into the end zone. He ranked 15th among quarterbacks with 24 touchdown passes.
The good news here is that Miami has the talent in the passing game to help Tannehill out. Jarvis Landry was an absolute PPR stud, as he recorded 110 receptions on 166 targets. Coupled with Rishard Matthews, 43 receptions on 61 targets, that's two Dolphins' pass catchers that combined for a 67.4 catch rate. That's going to be important for Tannehill moving forward.
Also important here will be the healthy return of last year's first-round pick DeVante Parker, who dealt with an injury-plagued rookie campaign. There's definitely the talent here for Tannehill to exceed expectations. Unfortunately, here's a quarterback that's failed to finish better than 16th at his position in fantasy points three times in his first four NFL seasons.
Running Backs: Arian Foster, Jay Ajayi
Foster is the true wild card here. When healthy, the former Houston Texan Pro Bowler has been among the most productive at his position in modern NFL history. Here's a guy that's averaging 115 total yards and nearly a touchdown per game in his career. He's also finished as a top-five fantasy running back four times over the past six seasons.
The issue here, as most of you already have assumed, is his injury-plagued recent career. Foster has missed nearly half of Houston's games over the past three seasons and is coming off a torn Achilles. Looking good in camp is one thing. Remaining healthy on the field during the regular season is a completely different thing. With an ADP that has him as the 28th running back off the board in seventh round, he's most definitely worth the risk. In reality, the upside is too real here.
If you are going to go with Foster in the mid-to-late rounds, you're best off handcuffing him with Ajayi, who was considered the Dolphins' starting running back up until a month ago. Ajayi had an uneven rookie season and is also an injury concern. But the opportunities he might see should Foster go down to injury should make him worthy of a late-round pick in 12-team contests.
Wide Receivers: Jarvis Landry, DeVante Parker
Landry ranked fourth in the NFL in receptions last season, catching 110 of the 166 passes thrown in his direction. Unfortunately a low yards per catch average (10.2 yards) and four touchdowns limited his fantasy production. All said, Landry finished as the 12th-best fantasy receiver, which equates to bottom end WR1 production.
As with any top-end receiver, the primary thing to look at here is the quarterback. If Tannehill finds a way to progress in the red zone, Landry should find himself cracking the top eight to 10 spots among fantasy receivers. If not, his 12th ranking last season is a ceiling. Even then, Landry's current ADP has him as the 22nd receiver off the board. That's some tremendous value right there.
On the other hand, Parker is one of those unknowns. He did absolutely nothing of substance during an injury-plagued 2015 campaign that saw the then rookie compile just 26 receptions for 494 yards. Though, the production was definitely there when Parker was healthy and on the field. He ended the season by putting up 286 yards on 13 receptions over the final three games. Parker is one of those high-upside players you should target late in the draft.
Tight Ends: Jordan Cameron
After putting up 80 receptions for 917 yards and seven scores during a Pro Bowl campaign for the Cleveland Browns in 2013, Cameron has failed to live up to that potential. In fact, he's tallied just 59 catches over the past two seasons, including 35 in his first season with the Dolphins last year. More importantly, Cameron put up an absurdly low 50 percent catch rate last season. Without much chemistry relating to Tannehill, the worry here has to be that he's not going to produce at a high level.