The NFC South winner will, at best, only get to nine wins this season. And that’s assuming either the Saints or the Falcons win the rest of their games, which, given their overall performance this season, isn’t very likely at all. Two of these teams play each other this week and the other two each play NFC playoff contenders. There’s a good chance only one team from this division gets a win this week. Here’s a preview of all the matchups from the NFC South in Week 14:
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints, Sunday 1PM EST
Neither of these teams performed as expected last week. The Panthers, who I expected to beat the Minnesota Vikings handily, laid an egg. The Saints, who I expected to get torched by the Pittsburgh Steelers, came out with guns blazing and, until the end of the fourth quarter, held up well on defense.
The Panthers desperately need to win this game if they want to stay alive in the division race. Usually the more desperate teams in this league tend to find ways to win but I just don’t think that’s the case in this game. In Week 9 these teams played in Carolina and the Panthers lost 28-10. This game is in New Orleans and we all know that the Saints are a different team at home (although they lost three home games in a row this season). If the Panthers want any chance of winning they’re going to have to be extremely efficient in the pass game, control the clock with the run game, and do not turn the ball over. They can not afford to give Drew Brees and the Saints’ high powered offense extra opportunities. On defense they need their secondary to have one of the best games they’ve had all year. According to PFF (subscription) they have the seventh worst pass coverage grade in the entire NFL. I expect the Saints to bury the Panthers’ playoff hopes in this one and win by multiple scores.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions, Sunday 1PM EST
These are another two teams coming off completely different Week 13 performances. The Lions beat the Chicago Bears on Thanksgiving while the Buccaneers lost at the end to the Cincinnati Bengals. The Buccaneers have to be extremely mindful of this being a letdown game and getting blown out by a very good Lions team.
When looking at exactly how these two teams match up I get the feeling this is going to be a blood bath. The best part of the Bucs’ offense, which isn’t a good offense at all, is their run blocking and the subsequent run game. The best part of the Lions’ defense, PFF’s third best overall defense, is their run defense. With their front seven it is extremely hard to have any success against them on the ground. This is going to force the Bucs to throw more and open up Josh McCown to the Lions’ pass rush. When McCown has faced pressure he has a passer rating of 39.7, PFF grade of -12, 51.9% completion percentage, one touchdown, and seven interceptions. If the Bucs want any chance of pulling off the upset they’ll need their offensive line to have the game of their lives. They’ll also have to hope that the Lions’ quarterback Matthew Stafford turns the ball over multiple times. If Stafford can start connecting with Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate, it’s going to be a long day for the Bucs. When this one is over I expect the Lions to win by multiple touchdowns.
Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers, Monday 8:30PM EST
This is another game that could get away from one team in a hurry. The Atlanta Falcons are coming off a big win against the Arizona Cardinals and could come out extremely flat against a Packers team that is clicking on all cylinders right now, especially at home.
A realistic way for the Falcons to pull off the upset is for them to win in a shootout. Matt Ryan and Julio Jones had incredible weeks last week against one of the more highly touted secondaries in the league. If they can have a repeat performance this week against a Packers secondary that ranks 11th in PFF pass coverage grade they might be able to hang in there and pull off the win. On defense the Falcons can hope and pray that Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers throws a few interceptions and gives the Falcons offense extra opportunities. However, I don’t think that’s very realistic considering Rodgers has only thrown three interceptions compared to his 32 touchdowns. The Falcons have the fifth worst PFF pass coverage grade and the Packers have the second best PFF passing grade. This is a recipe for disaster for the Falcons. When all is said and done, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Packers win by at least three touchdowns. I don’t think it’ll be close.