Andrew Luck

With two years in the books for a player who was regarded as the best quarterback prospect since Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck has been dubbed “overrated” by many. That is simply unfair to him. No matter the level of talent that a quarterback was as a prospect, transitioning to the NFL is a nightmare. No young quarterback can be expected to waltz into the league and be a top-five quarterback.

Sadly, the media hypes him up as such, but statistically, he is far from that. All that being said, Luck’s stats are misleading due to the context of the situation. While he may not be a top-five quarterback, he is as close as a young quarterback can be. Luck’s 2013 season may not look pretty on paper, but the film shows a different story.

Above is a collection of games from the middle part of Luck’s 2013 season (vs Seattle, Denver, St. Louis, and Arizona). (105/153; 68.6%)

Above is a collection of games from both the beginning and the end of Luck’s 2013 season (vs Oakland, Miami, Kansas City, and Jacksonville). (89/115; 77.4%)

(Total: 194/268; 72.4%)

Despite his youth, Luck showed a plethora of veteran traits. The most prominent, and arguably most important, of those traits was his handling of pressure from pass rushers. No pass rusher was too daunting for Luck to handle. When pressure came off of the edge, Luck would step into the pocket and create time to complete a pass as if it was muscle memory. In all reality, for Luck, that was likely the case. Luck does not hesitate or panic because he has become comfortable with the situation.

Similarly, Luck is able to handle interior pressure more efficiently than most. To some degree, interior pressure is an issue for every NFL quarterback, so the key is minimizing mistakes during such crisis and being able to escape the pressure. Due to poor interior play in Indianapolis, Luck was often forced to bail the pocket, but he was not shaken.

Luck keeps his eyes down field when he is mobile. He goes through the remainder of possible options, making sure that despite the pocket being broken, that the play was not. When on the move outside of the pocket, Luck’s accuracy is still sufficient. Of course, like any quarterback throwing on the run, he is not as accurate as he is when in the pocket, but the drop off is much less noticeable in Luck than it is for most quarterbacks.

If Luck realizes that he cannot complete a pass, he shows the ability to escape pressure, both with marginal speed and his large frame allowing him to bounce off defenders, and create “something out of nothing.” That being said, it is quite apparent by his play that he would much rather prefer to stay in the pocket and pick teams apart with his arm.

While Luck can run, that is not the most impressive display of what he does with his feet. His footwork in the pocket is advanced and masterfully refined, not only for his age, but for any quarterback. When dropping back, he takes sharp, precise steps that make short timing passes and play action throws much easier to complete on a rhythm.

For all other throws, he typically has his feet set up correctly to make the throw without having to take more unnecessary steps. Doing so is a key factor as to why throws seldom “get away” from Luck. Understanding the importance of clean footwork, as well as executing it, is not seen enough in young quarterbacks. It is what allows Luck to be accurate on all levels of the field. Unfortunately, Luck has other deficiencies that make his youth noticeable.

Prior to Reggie Wayne’s ACL tear (that Luck took the blame for, admitting that it was a poor throw that caused Wayne to injure himself), Luck seemed to have improved his decision making from his rookie year. With Wayne out of the lineup, he reverted back to his rookie self. The lack of weapons and a mediocre offensive line was a bit too much for the young Luck to handle. He began forcing passes and making poorer decisions. It had become habitual for Luck to put too much responsibility on himself and too much trust in his arm.

Aside from regressing into his rookie form when Wayne was injured, Luck was near perfect for a young quarterback. From a physical talent perspective, Luck is arguably the best quarterback in the league, alongside Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton, and Colin Kaepernick types. Mentally, Luck showed early on that he can quickly go through his progressions and fire an accurate throw. On the other hand, there were plenty of examples of him rushing throws and forcing passes into traffic. All things considered, Luck was one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL last year, but somehow he is “overrated” and does not deserve that praise.

The notion of Luck being overrated roots from two things. The first is that his predecessor Peyton Manning is arguably the best quarterback of all-time. The second is that Luck was crowned as the best quarterback prospect since none other than Peyton Manning. Everything that Luck did, does, or will do is under a microscope that is looking for Manning. Andrew Luck is not Peyton Manning. Andrew Luck is Andrew Luck, and he is a wonderful quarterback.

Jake Locker

I was a little disappointed after watching Jake Locker. I expected him to be a flashy, inconsistent quarterback, but all I really saw was inconsistency, not the flash that many like to talk about. His performance in the games I watched was sub-par, but I’m not going to be too hasty. There is a smaller sample for Locker mainly due to injuries and less throws to go off of, and there’s a good chance that he simply didn’t flash in the games I watched, but flashed in others. Anyways, that’s my disclaimer, so keep that in mind while reading this.

His season was riddled with misfires and mental mistakes. He has all the tools needed to be a very good NFL quarterback, but he just hasn’t put it together. He’s shown at times that he can throw lasers into tight windows, and that he can make good decisions under pressure, but there’s just not enough evidence there to suggest he should get a large contract after his rookie deal is up. One play, Locker will sense the pressure, adjust using his athleticism, and make a very nice throw. The next, he’ll see the pressure, and look like a scared little kid (literally, you’ll see later.)

Here are the charts:

Above is a collection of four games; two from the beginning of Locker’s games (Pittsburgh, Houston) and two near the end (St. Louis, Jacksonville). (49/80, 61.3% accuracy)

Above is a collection of the three middle games of Locker’s games (vs San Diego, New York Jets, San Francisco). (72/100, 72% accuracy)

(Total: 121/180; 67.2%)

If you look at the charts, Locker clearly has an issue throwing deep, and to the outside, particularly the right side. One of the issues I found was his release point. He tends to release the ball too early or too late, and this causes some major accuracy issues. Most of the time, the early mechanics of his throw are good, and look solid. He drives the ball with his whole body and uses his hips to get as much power as possible, but sometimes, especially when he’s throwing to the sidelines, he lets the ball out way too early.

Instead of following through all the way, he kind of stops his motion, and it just looks odd. He let’s the ball out early, and he doesn’t let his back foot follow through. The best way I can describe this with words is that his release is a shotgun. The longer the barrel, the more accurate it is. Instead of the bullet exiting at the end of the barrel, the bullet is exiting halfway through the barrel, and it loses a lot of power and accuracy. Here is an image of what I tried to describe, hopefully you will be able to understand it better when it’s in front of you.

On the image on the left, Locker’s mechanics look fine. He is winding up and is ready to drive the ball. On the right, his weight doesn’t transfer well and he releases the ball too early in the process. It is very hard to see, but even the little things like that can really affect a ball’s placement. In this case, it was a fairly easy completion that turns out incomplete.

Before it looks like I’m nitpicking too much, here is a very obvious flaw in his mechanics.

When he’s not under pressure, Locker’s mechanics are okay. They’re not consistent, but they’re not terrible. However, when he’s put under even a little pressure like in the picture above, he does some outrageous things. Locker sees the pressure in front of him right at the snap of the ball, and immediately looks like he wants to run away. He throws the ball with such hastiness that his mechanics end up worse than those of a high school quarterback.

I don’t know about you, but I don’t think that’s how a franchise quarterback is supposed to look when throwing to such a wide open target. As you can see, the pressure that Locker saw pre-snap is picked up by the running back, so Locker really had nothing to worry about. It should have been a straight-forward completion.

Now that my “bashing” is done, let’s show one example of a flash of talent.

In this GIF, you see a combination of all of the things that people loved Jake Locker for when he was drafted. Locker sees the pressure coming immediately, but keeps his eyes downfield. He adjusts to the pressure, and steps up. Even though there is a guy right in his face, Locker keeps calm and delivers a very accurate ball to his receiver. He turned a very bad play into a 1st down.

Like I said earlier, there wasn’t much 2013 film to work with, and I’m only able to speak on what I saw. Next year is a really big year for Locker. If he doesn’t show much more consistency, he’s not going to receive a decent contract from anyone. Not only does his play on the field have to improve a lot, but he simply has to stay on the field, and not injured on the sidelines. Based on what I’ve seen so far, I wouldn’t feel very comfortable with Locker as my quarterback, considering he’s had several years to develop. A change of scenery may be good for him though. If he goes to a team with someone who can help work out some of the kinks, Locker could easily be a top quarterback. There’s no question about his tools, it just comes down to how much you’re able to fix the problems that he has.

Chad Henne

Chad Henne has been the laughing stock of the NFL since he stepped foot on a professional field. Last year was no different. That being said, the perception on him is skewed. Generally, people think of Henne as a joke of a quarterback. To some extent, that is true, and that is because he is not a starting quarterback caliber player, but a top notch backup/spot starter. You do not want him playing a full season, but he can run the offense in a pinch. The problem is that he was always thrown into a full time starting job. Despite the loads of criticism Henne receives, he is not quite as horrid as many think.

Above is a collection of four games from the early/late parts of Henne’s starts. (vs Oakland, Seattle, Houston, Tennessee) (74/117; 63.2%)

Above is a collection of four games from the middle of Henne’s 2013 starts. (vs San Francisco, Tennessee, Houston, Arizona) (86/124; 69.4%)

(Total: 150/241; 62.2%)

As anyone who has seen him play would know, Henne is rather mentally deficient. That being said, he, at the very least, understands proper footwork. Now, it sounds like a boring and meticulous aspect of quarterbacking, but the reality is, one false step can lead to an inaccurate throw. Henne’s accuracy percentage is low, but that was not related to his feet.

On shorter throws within the numbers, where easy yards are to be had, Henne was rather efficient. That was a product of not only having fewer forced passes in that area, but having clean enough footwork that enabled him to more easily complete those throws. Considering it is short yardage, it is typically brushed off, but the amount of yards after the catch that is restricted around the league in that area is astonishing. For a quarterback that ought to be a backup, being able to function well in the short areas of the field is ideal.

Along with his ability to throw accurately in the short areas of the field, Henne has the ability to take off for a few yards, if need be. Surprisingly, knowing not to scramble unnecessarily is an area of decision making that Henne is efficient in. Seldom does he try to run unless he does not see an open receiver. Although, even when his receivers are not open, he throws anyway. The point is that an offensive coordinator, Jedd Fisch in Jacksonville, does not have to worry about his quarterback wasting passing opportunities with his feet.

On a tangent to his running ability, Henne makes functional use of the pocket, as in moving around to evade defenders and find lanes. He does not do so at an elite level like Peyton Manning and such, but on the other hand, is not a statue. His ability to maneuver the pocket lies somewhere in between which, for a backup quarterback, is certainly sufficient. Unfortunately, his awareness of the situation around him tends to hide his ability to manipulate the pocket. More often than not, Henne is blasted without noticing the defender at all or is far too late to react. In this case, as usual, one of Henne’s flaws overshadows a positive trait.

Now, digress back to his pure passing ability. Though Henne is serviceable within ten yards of the line of scrimmage, his accuracy percentage plummets after crossing the ten-yard threshold. At or past ten yards, Henne’s accuracy rating was a disgusting 48.5% (32/66). While “inaccuracies,” for the sake of this charting, can be mental mistakes as opposed to ball placement, neither are acceptable by any means. Henne is a constant offender of both.

In regards to mental ability, Henne is a major liability. As bad as it sounds, one of my notes on Henne (my favorite one, at that) was, “I swear that he does not think sometimes.” That is not an exaggeration or an attempt to be comedic. There are moments where he stares down a receiver quite clearly double or triple covered, yet decides to test his luck and fire away.

Whether it be horrendous vision, poor decision making, or lack of care, Henne’s blatantly forced passes are his biggest flaw, by far. In relation to decision making, Henne’s timing is off. Going back to a possible lack of care, Henne appears to throw when he wants to, not when he needs to. His anticipation of when and where a receiver will be open is poor, often leading to late passses that gives the defense time to recover. But of course, mental deficiency is only one of many flaws.

Like any other quarterback, Henne has his fair share of inexplicable misfires- a bit more often than most, but to be fair, it must be stressed that he is not a starting quarterback. Aside from those, Henne’s ball placement is solid, allowing receivers to generally be able to pick up yards after the catch. In regards to efficiency, Henne’s ball placement is good enough to be considered starting caliber, but as stated earlier, the absurd amount of mental mistakes hide his decent ball placement. Once again, a more obvious flaw in Henne shrouds an area of strength. 

When going deep (past 20 yards or so), Henne’s mechanics are poor. His feet are not the issue, which is the case for most, but instead, it is his weight transfer. Henne does not fluid move his upper body with his lower body, forcing him to throw against his body and use only his arm to complete the pass. Doing so leads to poor gauging of depth, possibly allowing an opposing safety to pounce on the underthrow/overthrow.

To some extent, Henne deserves to be defended because he is a top notch backup that was thrust into a starting role. Then again, Henne makes it easy for people to make fun of him. Below, Henne can not even take a few steps out from under center to complete a hand-off. He made a fool of himself as he fell on his face and fumbled the ball.

Henne certainly has his flaws and gives reason for his critics to be as harsh as they are, but he is a backup quarterback that is constantly thrown into the fire as the starting quarterback for bad teams. If one was to watch him with the mindset of him being a backup quarterback, they would come away impressed, but tell them that he was a starting quarterback and perception shifts. No, Henne should not start games for any team, but having him as insurance behind an established starter is superb.

Matt Schaub

Matt Schaub wasn’t good this year, that’s for sure. However, there is a lot unwarranted criticism floating his way. By no means was he a “good” quarterback in 2013, but he’s not nearly as bad as some people say he is. I personally believe Schaub is a decent quarterback but he has too low of a ceiling to be a true franchise signal caller. I’ve seen some people say that he’s not a top 32 starter in this league, yet in the 3 years prior to 2013, he put up very good numbers.

These include a 61/30 TD/INT ratio, and 4000 yards twice, with his other season being cut short by injury. If you go back just 1 more year, he hit 4,770 yards, posting a pretty solid 29/15 TD/INT ratio. Obviously these are stats and they can’t be used as the sole basis of an argument, but I feel that these numbers more accurately reflect Schaub’s talent as a quarterback. Let’s dig in.

Above is a collection of four games; two from the beginning of Schaub’s games (San Diego, Tennessee) and two near the end (Denver, Tennessee). (92/147 62.6% accuracy)

Above is a collection of the four middle games of Schaub’s games (SF, STL, Oakland, Jacksonville). (70/101; 69.3% accuracy)

(Total: 162/248; 65.3%)

Based on the charts, Schaub had some trouble throwing to the sidelines. Most attribute this to his lack of above-average arm strength. While I agree that arm strength may be a factor, I believe there is more to it than that. There were several instances where the cornerback had deciphered a key of some sort, and predicted a curl or out and made a play on the ball. I can’t tell you exactly what those keys were, but some part of the Gary Kubiak offense had been figured out. The post routes that usually brought a lot of success with Andre Johnson started getting picked off or deflected.

It seems that the gameplans were different in the games that I watched and the games that Derrik, my partner for this project, watched. In the games I watched, Schaub was much more conservative and threw over the middle more often. This brought him more success and dramatically improved his accuracy percentage.

On this particular play, Tramaine Brock is man-to-man with the outside receiver, but as soon as he sees both Andre Johnson and his guy running quick Out routes, he jumps onto Johnson’s out route without hesitation. It’s an easy Interception that turns into a touchdown. I can’t say with 100% certainty that Brock recognized the play from film study, but to me, that’s the most logical explanation. Brock doesn’t turn his head to look at Schaub until he’s already made his break on the ball. While there is a chance that Brock just happened to jump that route, I believe that was something out of the control of Schaub. Had Brock not made that play, it would probably have been a completion for a few yards.

Now to talk specifically about Schaub. Below is a screenshot where Schaub’s ceiling is showcased. As you can see, the outside wide receiver has a few yards in between him and the cornerback. Schaub actually times this route well, but he just does not have the arm strength to get it there in time. The pass falls a little short and the cornerback is able to close ground on the wide receiver. Now, if the quarterback in this play would have been someone like Aaron Rodgers, for example, this might have been a touchdown.

I wish I could find a GIF of an amazing throw that Schaub had, but the truth is there were not very many outstanding throws from him. Most of his completions were good, but nothing special. I am not going to sit here and explain a 5 yard slant, so I will just give you some details about many of his passes. A lot of the offense that Schaub worked in last year revolved around getting Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins in 1v1 situations. Using adjustments, the Texans were somewhat successful in doing that. Schaub was able to take advantage most of the time, and let his wide receivers go up and get the ball. However, there were not very many instances where Schaub made an amazing play and elevated the level of his team.

Schaub is by all means, a very average quarterback. He makes mental mistakes, he does not have great arm strength, and his mechanics tend to get wobbly in key situations, but he is also not a complete wreck. He can win you games, and he has shown that he can. As of now, I personally believe Schaub is still a top-20 quarterback, and you could be a lot worse off than him. Schaub is currently the projected starter for Oakland this year. Many have criticized the move to acquire Schaub, but I do not think it was that bad. I am a believer in Derek Carr, but letting Schaub start for at least this year could benefit Carr. Schaub isn’t in as good of a situation as he was in Houston. He does not have his go-to wide receivers like he used to. It will be interesting to see how Schaub performs in a non-Kubiak offense, but I wouldn’t expect much more than average.