NFL Quarterback Passing Charts: AFC West

By Derrik Klassen on Tuesday, July 15th 2014
NFL Quarterback Passing Charts: AFC West

Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos (by Nathan Manickavasagam)

I do not have anything ground-breaking to say about Manning. Peyton Manning is still Peyton Manning. I am going to focus on a few strengths that Manning has that separate him from the rest of the guys I have watched so far.

Obviously, he is not a perfect quarterback, he has his weaknesses just like any other quarterback, but he realizes what his weaknesses are and uses his strengths to make up for them. I would say that is the biggest thing that keeps Manning performing at this outrageous level of play. I will elaborate more on that later on, but for now let us check out the charts.

Above is a collection of four games; two from the beginning of Manning’s games (NYG, Philadelphia) and two near the end (Tennessee, San Diego).

(134/171; 80.1% accuracy)

Above is a collection of the four middle games of Manning’s games (Indy, Washington, San Diego, Kansas City). (116/153, 75.8% accuracy)

(Total: 250/324; 77.2%)

I do not have much to say that specifically relates to the charts. Like I said above, he is just a tremendous quarterback, there is not much more to it. He is accurate everywhere on the field, but I would say his weakest spot on the field is obviously the deep passes. It is normal for a quarterback to become less and less accurate as the ball travels further down the field. Of course there are exceptions.

Manning does not have very good arm strength, old age and surgery have taken their toll, but he throws a good spiral (most of the time) and he places the ball very well, which is one of his strengths that I will go into more detail on in a second.

Here is an example of Manning’s great ball placement. He consistently puts the ball on the money. Nearly every quarterback has multiple completions per game that could have resulted in many more yards. For example, one play from Alex Smith was a five-yard slant to Dwayne Bowe. It was a completion, however, the ball was way behind and Bowe was unable to get any yards after the catch. Manning does not really have that problem.

Almost every single ball is placed in a spot that allows his target to fight for more yards. That is one reason that they have one of the most effective screen passes in the league. When you combine a great quarterback with great weapons, you win games.

With each of Manning’s weaknesses comes a strength. For example, Manning is immobile and can not escape rushers well. Because of this, he makes it a habit to get the ball out quickly. He goes through his reads, and makes his decision. He does not sit in the pocket waiting for something to happen.

Several times through the year, I heard fans complaining about their teams inability to sack Manning. They often blamed it on their rushers, but to be quite honest, there was nothing they could do. I can not tell you how many times a rusher beat the opposing lineman, but was unable to get to Manning because the ball was already out. While being immobile is a weakness for Manning, his strength of knowing what to do with the ball right away makes up for it.

Here, you can see how quickly Manning makes his read. He checks one target, but he is not open. His whole body immediately switches to another target. Luckily, that target is wide open and Manning delivers a decent ball. When the ball comes out that quickly, there is not much you can do.

Arm strength is probably Manning’s only other weakness. He does not have the laser arm that other quarterbacks have. Because this is something Manning can’t really improve too much on, he makes use of his anticipation to compensate for it. Here we see Manning leading his receiver before he even gets open.

A younger quarterback with a bigger arm could have waited until his target was open and then thrown a bullet, but because Manning does not have that luxury, he has to anticipate that he will become open and put some touch on it. Obviously it works out on this play, and for the most part, it worked on others too.

Peyton Manning is not the perfect quarterback, but his ability to compensate for his weaknesses that he cannot control with strengths that he can control, is what separates him from the rest. If Manning ran a 4.5, and threw rockets, man. I do not even know what would happen.

However, he does not, and the rest of the league is lucky he does not. That said, Manning is still a dangerous quarterback and he will pick any defense you throw at him apart and there is not much you can do about it. The Broncos had a pretty solid offseason, so it would not shock me to see them in the Super Bowl again. That is what happens when you have arguably a top-five quarterback of all time.

 

Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers (by Derrik Klassen)

Prior to the 2013 season, Rivers had been written off as a washed-up veteran that was bound to get worse. The problem was that he was forced to work with a poor supporting cast and too many fingers were pointed at Rivers for the failure of the offense. Luckily for San Diego, a few key additions to the offense enabled Rivers to return to his old self.

Linemen King Dunlap and DJ Fluker were both upgrades at their respective offensive tackle position, while wide receiver Keenan Allen had a wonderful rookie year and tight end Ladarius Green became more involved in the offense.

It may sound like Rivers was carried by the new additions, but in reality, they simply allowed him to play to the best of his ability, as opposed to the prior mess of an offense that continued to put him in bad situations. Rivers’s top-notch accuracy was able to show its face once more and will continue to be able to so long as the organization can keep him supplied with offensive weapons and protection.


Above is a chart of four games from the middle of the 2013 season (vs Oakland, Washington, Miami, and Kansas City).

(117/161; 72.7%)


Above is a collection of games from the beginning/end of the 2013 season (vs Houston, Philidelphia, Oakland, Kansas City). (106/127; 83.5%)

(Total: 223/288; 77.4%)

Upper-echelon quarterbacks share a universal trait: pocket presence. If one cannot handle the pressure of pass rushers surrounding them at all times, one can not survive in the NFL. It should not be that simple, but in today’s NFL, there is not a single high level quarterback with poor pocket presence.

Not only does Rivers have the pocket presence needed to survive, but his pocket presence is arguably the best in the league. When a rusher flies off the edge, Rivers steps into an open space as he continues to search for an open target. Of course, that does not only apply to edge pressure. Though interior pressure is somewhat of an issue for every NFL quarterback, Rivers is one of the best at minimizing the damage and being able to save the play. If the pocket collapses entirely, Rivers stands strong in the confined area and does his best to complete a pass.

Few quarterbacks can function when the pocket has breaks down and engulfs them, but Rivers is a fearless passer that can make the best of the situation, even if he is aware that he is about to get pummeled. Below, the pocket begins closing on Rivers, but he makes a wonderful throw to the corner of the end zone despite his footwork not being ideal.

On a tangent to his ability to function with any sort of pass rushing pressure, Rivers’s ability to complete passes from a handful of platforms is impressive. On the move, off his back foot, or without being able to set his feet, Rivers is more serviceable from those platforms than most quarterbacks.

An average quarterback’s ball placement from those platforms is noticeably worse, but Rivers is able to allow his receiver to make a special play on the ball, at the very least. That being said, Rivers is typically capable of completing passes from obscure platforms, so long as they are not deep down the field.

Of course, when able to throw from a clean pocket and platform, Rivers is an elite passer. River’s work over the short and intermediate areas of the field is wonderful. Rivers understands how to throw with different speeds and how to put a certain trajectory or touch on the ball. Based solely on ball placement,

Rivers is second only to Peyton Manning. When Rivers is “on,” he can make the best of defensive backs look mediocre, even if they were in good enough position to make a play on the pass if it were an average quarterback throwing. Up until roughly 20 yards down the field, Rivers is a master, but he seldom tests his luck beyond that threshold unless he is in a pinch. Unfortunately, that tends to work out poorly.

With a lead or in a controlled deficit, Rivers is able to keep a clear mind and pick teams apart. Although, when the point differential is severe, Rivers fails to stay mentally sound. He begins rushing decisions and footwork, typically meaning poorly thrown deep passes. Instead of creating quick scoring drives like he intends to, Rivers ends up digging an even deeper hole for his team. In these situations, Rivers also tends to have miscommunication issues. Now, that may not be entirely on Rivers, but to some extent, miscommunications are the fault of both the quarterback and the receiver.

The one aspect of Rivers, if anything, that has remained constant is his delivery style. It is ugly. Often, an ugly release is a sure fire sign of a poor passer, but Rivers is one of the rare exceptions. “Constant” may have been a poor choice word considering his delivery rarely appears the same way twice.

Whether it be dipping his opposite shoulder or flailing his arm awkwardly, Rivers release always looks like it should be featured on a “How Not To Throw a Football” instructional video. Despite the disgusting appearance, Rivers delivery does not negatively affect his accuracy, though some may say it does simply because it looks so grotesque.

As a whole, Rivers was one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL last season. He takes over games early and often, forcing opposing offenses to scramble to keep up. Though, when Rivers can not get an early lead, the offense falls behind and ultimately lose the game.

As stated before, Rivers tended to be able to generate enough offense to prevent such deficits. His impeccable accuracy, poise, and pocket movement made Rivers a nightmare for defensive coordinators. Being that Rivers will turn 33 years old next season, many are beginning to write off Rivers once more as a veteran who will soon decline. As of now, there are no signs of such decline and his 2014 season should be another stellar campaign.

 

Alex Smith, Kansas City Chiefs (by Derrik Klassen)

Winning in the NFL is about collectively using your players in a way that works to the best of all their abilities at the same time. To that note, most of that concept is based on the ability of the quarterback. Andy Reid made the most of Alex Smith who is, at best, an average quarterback.  Statistically, Smith evokes efficiency, at least to the extent of a quarterback that carried games from time to time and generally kept the offense afloat on his own. In reality, Smith held the Chiefs back.

The absurd volume of throws within ten yards or behind the line of scrimmage was a product of both Reid’s scheme (that was somewhat forced because of Smith’s inability) and Smith’s tentative play style. So, the question is, what makes Smith the average, tentative quarterback that he is?

Above is a collection of four games from the middle of the 2013 season (vs Tennessee, Houston, Cleveland, and Denver).

(94/133; 70.7%)


Above is a collection of games from the beginning/end of the 2013 season (vs Jacksonville, Dallas, Oakland, and Indianapolis). (72/103; 69.9%)

(Total: 166/236; 70.3%)

Aside from being too trigger happy, the worst quality a quarterback could have is being too scared to throw. Smith is reluctant to throw more than 10 yards down the field, which ultimately lead to Dwayne Bowe’s potential not being reached. Below, Smith immediatly bypasses the receiver to his left, yet said receiver gets enough separation on his opposing cornerback for a pass to have been completed. 

Likewise, Smith is hesitant to throw unless he is entirely comfortable with the throw. This often means that opposed to throwing to his second or third read, Smith will look for the check down option (typically Jamaal Charles) too early. It could also mean that Smith stares down his targets to make sure they are wide open before firing.

To be fair, Smith’s tentativeness likely prevented a handful of interceptions, but the amount of yardage that he cost the offense outweighs the handful of interceptions, especially considering how talented the Chiefs defense is. Of course, Smith’s shy play style may have been exaggerated due to other factors.

The Chiefs offensive line unit struggled throughout the year, especially rookie Eric Fisher. Of course, that alone is not why Smith prefers to check down. Smith’s handling of pressure from the edge is sufficient, but Smith struggles with interior pressure more than the average quarterback. Any sort of interior penetration rattles Smith and leads to him either taking a sack or throwing to the nearest receiver. He fails to move away from the pressure, reset, then test a throw down field. To no surprise, Smith had other issues in the pocket as well.

Though Smith does not necessarily show fear in the midst of edge pressure, but he shows no urgency to do anything about it. His pocket movement is nearly nonexistent. Smith tends to finish his drop back then stand in place. Smith’s lack of movement leads to a number of inaccuracies because he does not set his feet properly.

Now, that could be because he either does not have the space to move because he does not take the steps needed to create space prior to the throw, or he simply does not care to reset for the throw. Whichever the issue is on the given play, it is problematic and caused a number of simple throws to get away from Smith. On top of all of that, Smith has one other minor movement issue.

Rollouts are not a major component of the Chiefs offense, but when such plays are called, Smith struggles to execute. He gets far too deep when rolling out, but also fails to work back up to the line of scrimmage quickly enough. With the rollouts themselves being so time consuming, plays of that nature typically fail because the windows for opportunity on the given route combinations are missed, which often meant Smith would check down (shocker, right?).

Normally, now would be the time to praise Smith, but there is little that he does that is any better than average. His ball placement, ability to go through progressions, and arm strength are all average. Smith’s escapability from pressure is rather impressive given that he is not a superb athlete, but aside from that, Smith is a bland quarterback. In fairness, being average in ball placement, ability to go through progressions, and arm strength allows Smith to be efficient enough to run an offense and retain a starting job, but he is not the type to put the team on his back.

Smith got too much credit for the 9-0 run to begin the year because the offense breathed through Charles’s rushing ability and his large quantity of receptions. All that being said, a team can certainly win games with Smith, but they will have to continue to run the same type of offense that chips away at defenses as opposed to truly opening up the field. Luckily for Smith, Andy Reid has mastered that type of offense and will maximize Smith’s skill set.

 

Terrelle Pryor, Oakland Raiders (by Nathan Manickavsagam)

I chose to write about Pryor because he is just so exciting. He has a lot going for him including a good arm, great legs, and most importantly, improvement. If you watch tape of him from a few years ago, you will see how far he has come. I know that there are many out there who do not believe Pryor will get better, but I disagree with them. I believe that Seattle got an absolute steal, acquiring Pryor for a seventh-round pick. He is not quite there yet when it comes to consistency, but he has shown many flashes and on most plays

I believe he looks like a solid starting quarterback. Pryor has come a long way, and does not have as far to go as you would think. His mechanics have vastly improved, but he needs to crack down on the plays where he reverts back to his old form. One thing I’ve noticed is that when quarterbacks change mechanics, it often takes game experience for them to solidify those changes. If they worked the entire off-season raising their elbow, chances are they are going to show flashes of the old mechanics when they are under pressure. With enough practice and experience, you can enforce the new mechanics. That is why I believe Pryor can be a good quarterback.

Above is a collection of four games; two from the beginning of Pryor’s games (Indy, Jacksonville) and two near the end (Kansas City, Denver).

(61/100; 61% accuracy)

Above is a collection of the four middle games of Pryor’s games (Denver, San Diego, Kansas City, Pittsburgh). (75/106; 71.2% accuracy)

(Total: 136/206; 64.1%)

His charts are not very good. He has a few areas he can really work on. The things that trouble me are the incompletions that are within a few yards of the line of scrimmage. He had too many incompletions in that range, and most of them look the same. He was under pressure, and he reverted back to his old mechanics. In addition to the sloppy mechanics, his indecisiveness costs his team some drives. At times, he seems hesitant to drive a ball into a small window. When you combine these two problems, you get an inconsistent quarterback. Below is an example.

Here, Pryor rolls out to buy some time. He has a receiver who is extremely open, but he does not pull the trigger and ends up getting sacked. Good quarterbacks can not afford this kind of mistakes; Pryor has to get better when it comes to making a read and committing to it.

Here, Pryor evades the pressure coming off the edge, rolls out, and lobs it up. Not only does he somehow manage to overthrow his target while throwing off his back foot, the ball also gets intercepted. Good quarterbacks do not let this happen, and this is something Pryor will have to work on if he wants to be successful.

I see this play, and I see what Pryor could very well become. Despite being in his own end zone, Pryor is calm and composed. Pressure is staring him in the face, yet he delivers a good ball and because of that, the receiver is able to get some major yards after the catch. This gets his team out of the danger zone and opens up the offense. Pryor needs to be able to consistently do this to take the next step, and that is where game experience comes into play.

Here is his athletic ability at work. He is a freak with the ball in his hands, and if he can learn to use this ability to effectively extend plays, and keep his body safe at the same time, he can become very good.

Terrelle Pryor has a lot of things that he can improve on, but I believe that he can do it. He is shown so much improvement, and proved me wrong. I used to think he did not have a chance at all, but I am now a believer. I am not blind, however. He does have some flaws, and that is typically where the argument ensues.

Some people view these flaws as non-fixable, but again, I have just seen too much improvement for me to believe it is not possible. Pryor probably will not get much playing time in Seattle, excluding blowouts, so I can not say that he will get the experience he needs to improve. Hopefully the preseason and practice will allow him to continue his development, but I am not sure Seattle is the right place for him.

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