It’s a yearly tradition–the Detroit Lions will kick off Thanksgiving with a football game for the 75th time. As fans sit down in the morning and get ready for a football feast, they will witness the Lions and Chicago Bears square off for the 16th time in the Thanksgiving Football Classic.
It’s been a wild season in the NFC North, especially when you look at preseason projections for the division. Chicago was seen by some as a Super Bowl-contender with Marc Trestman mentoring Jay Cutler for another season and improvements they made across the board. Now the Bears sit at 5-6, on the outside of the playoffs while Trestman and Cutler’s job security hangs in the balance. They aren’t mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, but things look grimmer by the week.
Detroit wasn’t a favorite in the NFC North, even after the additions of Golden Tate, Eric Ebron and the expected growth of cornerback Darius Slay. Then Detroit broke out to a 7-2 start, including a win versus the Green Bay Packers. They have slipped lately, losing to the Arizona Cardinals and New England Patriots. Concerns could also be raised over their loss to the Carolina Panthers, but even more so about their lack of offense.
The Lions’ offense was supposed to flourish this season. Calvin Johnson, Tate, Ebron and Reggie Bush. While Johnson and Bush have certainly missed a handful of games, the offensive woes go beyond injuries. Detroit has always been committed to throwing the football, so being 26th in rushing attempts (271) shouldn’t come as a surprise, but being 30th in rushing yards per game is.
An inconsistent running game has predicated defensive coordinators focusing on stopping the wide receivers. They’ve also brought plenty of pressure on a depleted offensive line, as Matthew Stafford has been sacked 33 times this season. Still when watching Stafford make decisions and throw, he hasn’t made real improvements with his mechanics or decision-making. This is after Detroit brought in Jim Caldwell and Joe Lombardi to help coach him up. He has faced two stout defenses lately, so perhaps taking on Chicago’s secondary that is 28th versus the pass.
Calvin Johnson is still fighting through the ankle sprain that has plagued him for most of the season and a short week isn’t going to help it get better. But the struggling star certainly can be happy to face Chicago. This is exactly the type of game where Detroit will be desperate to jumpstart its offense, so Johnson will get plenty of targets. Tim Jennings and safety help will not be enough in this game.
Meanwhile, Golden Tate should also be in for a Thanksgiving treat with Kyle Fuller out, he will now face Al Louis-Jean. These are great matchups for Stafford to keep exploiting, so there shouldn’t be any more excuses if he has another bad game.
On Chicago’s side of the ball, they are in for another test. While the Lions just allowed Tom Brady to throw for 300-plus yards, they still enter the week 10th versus the pass. Their defensive line especially gets after it, anchored by Ndamukong Suh in the middle who will devour the man across from him then crush the quarterback.
This is where Chicago will really face problems, giving Cutler any time to sit back and throw to Brandon Marshall or Alshon Jeffery. Chicago should be able to convert some of the jump ball throws with Jeffery and Marshall, leading to some big plays but Cutler’s turnovers continue to be an issue.
The linchpin of Chicago’s offense is Matt Forte, carrying an offense that at times take brute force to move forward. Forte has surpassed 100 total yards in seven of his last eight games, but rushing yards will be excruciating to come by versus Detroit. Where Chicago should look to counter the heavy pressure and feed Forte is in the passing game, getting him the ball out in the open field and letting him get chunks of yards.
While Chicago is still in the playoff hunt, it’s a slim chance so perhaps they explore a different purpose for this game. They could play the important role of spoiler, delivering a loss to the Lions would be a major blow. It would mark their third straight loss and keep them a game back of the Packers, even if Green Bay loses on Sunday to New England. It would also push the Lions a little further out of the playoff picture, forcing them to be near perfect to even make it in.
Of course a win for the Lions would push the Thanksgiving meeting between the Lions and Bears to an 8-8 split all-time. More importantly, a win would mean they move right back to the top of the NFC North if Green Bay loses on Sunday. The best situation for Detroit is a dominant win where the offense gets back in a groove and this team proves why they can contend for the Super Bowl.
In the end, the Lions bounce back from their offensive woes and take advantage of Chicago. While the Bears have the offensive weapons to try and stay in this game, Cutler is prone to killer turnovers and Chicago’s defense can’t be trusted to get stops when they need to.
Lions win, 34-24