Seven NFL teams have already clinched playoff spots as Week 16 fast approaches.
The Texans, Falcons, Broncos, Patriots and Packers have all secured their respective divisions. The 49ers and Ravens, meanwhile, have earned a playoff berth and are in line for division titles.
Four additional teams have their sights on January football as well. The Colts, Bengals, Redskins and Giants represent this hopeful contingent.
Per usual, a vast collection of wins, losses, ties, “ands,” “ors” and “and/ors” exist within the overall hypothetical framework.
Fortunately, eDraft is here to provide a succinct breakdown of each potential scenario on a team-by-team basis.
We hope resolution follows.
AFC
Houston Texans (12-2, clinched AFC South)
The Texans will clinch home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs if they simply hold up their end of the bargain. Doing so will require beating the playoff-hopeful Vikings at home.
Minnesota is 8-6 and currently has a tenuous hold on the sixth and final NFC playoff seed. It is an overachieving bunch led by RB Adrian Peterson and his quest for the all-time NFL record for single-season rushing yards. He’s made a habit of absolutely destroying opposing run defenses on a weekly basis.
Peterson’s eclipsed the 100-yard mark in eight straight weeks, including two 200-yard totals against the Packers and Rams. He also torched Tampa Bay’s No. 1 ranked unit for 123 yards (8.2 average) and a touchdown during this streak.
Houston and its No. 5 run defense, however, is a superior overall corps compared to anything Peterson has faced this season (minus San Francisco in Week 3).
Coordinator guru Wade Phillips will devise the appropriate schemes for J.J. Watt and company to withstand the Peterson onslaught in an easy victory over the Vikings. He’ll surpass 100 yards on the ground, but the Texans will be the ones smiling with home-field advantage throughout.
Denver Broncos (11-3, clinched AFC West)
The Broncos will clinch a first-round bye with a win and New England loss or tie, OR tie and New England loss.
Denver will outlast an underrated Browns team in the second half of their Week 16 matchup. Unfortunately, the Patriots might very well put up 60-plus on a sorry Jaguars defense that has given up the third-most points in the NFL. They’re surely fuming after seeing their 20-game home winning streak in December crash and burn at the hands of the 49ers.
Peyton Manning and his Bronco brethren must wait until next week for a shot at a wild-card week off.
Baltimore Ravens (9-5, clinched playoff berth)
The Ravens will clinch the AFC North with a win, OR tie and Cincinnati loss or tie.
But, oh how the freefall continues.
Despite firing coordinator Cam Cameron as an alleged benefit for quarterback Joe Flacco and the offense, the Ravens suffered a crushing loss to the Broncos. Flacco managed a whopping 0.4—yes, 0.4—QBR and Ray Rice received a grand total of zero touches on third downs.
Next on the docket for Baltimore are the New York Giants. Tom Coughlin’s boys will look to bring the pain after being humiliated by the Falcons in shutout fashion. They’ll showcase their Super Bowl mettle by embarrassing the Ravens en route to keeping their playoff hopes alive.
Baltimore will likely enter the postseason riding a five-game losing streak.
Indianapolis Colts (9-5)
The Colts will clinch a wild-card playoff spot with a win, OR winning strength of victory tiebreaker over Cincinnati, OR Pittsburgh loss or tie.
Stanford education notwithstanding, Andrew Luck really isn’t in the business of playoff berths via nebulous tiebreaking scenarios. He prefers taking care of business against teams with .143 winning percentages.
Indianapolis will survive the Jamaal Charles ground attack and take down the 2-12 Kansas City Chiefs in Week 16.
Can anyone say double digit wins and playoffs just one year following a 2-14 season?
Cincinnati Bengals (8-6)
Win and you’re in—it’s that simple.
The Bengals will clinch a playoff spot by defeating their division rival Steelers.
In Week 7, Cincinnati came up just short against Pittsburgh by blowing a third-quarter lead at home. It managed just 185 total yards while giving up 431, but lost by only one touchdown (24-17).
Luckily, the Bengals are an entirely improved team than what they were amidst a four-game losing streak back in October. Andy Dalton has thrown 12 TDs to just three interceptions in his past six contests and BenJarvus Green-Ellis has four 100-yard outings during that same span. The defense, meanwhile, has limited opponents to an average of just over 12 points per game.
The team itself will notch its sixth win in the past seven games over a Steelers club plagued by injuries and internal conflict (see: Ben Roethlisberger vs. Todd Haley).
Mark the Bengals down for the 2012 playoffs.
NFC
Atlanta Falcons (12-2, clinched NFC South)
Update 12/23: Atlanta defeated the Lions 33-18 on Saturday. In doing so, the Falcons clinched home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. And confirmed this prediction.
The Falcons will clinch home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs with a win.
The Falcons play the Lions in Week 16.
The Falcons will clinch home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs.
Detroit threw up the proverbial white flag in their 38-10 loss at the hands of the 4-9 Cardinals. A nine-game losing streak ended, while Detroit’s streak ran to six.
No offense, no defense, no heart—the Lions are done. And the Falcons are far from it.
San Francisco 49ers (10-3-1, clinched playoff berth)
The 49ers will clinch the NFC West with a win or tie. They’ll clinch a first-round bye with a win and Green Bay loss or tie, OR tie and Green Bay loss.
Eliminate the latter possibilities because the Packers will have little trouble racking up 30-plus at Lambeau Field against Tennessee’s No. 30 ranked scoring defense.
Concerning the NFC West crown, however, well that’s another matter entirely. The 49ers travel to the Pacific Northwest for an ultra-heated divisional battle with the Seahawks.
Jim Harbaugh vs. Pete Carroll, No. 1 vs. No. 2 scoring defense, No. 2 vs. No. 3 rushing offense, Division bully vs. Division up-and-comer…
Put in a nutshell, San Francisco does everything just that much better than Seattle.
The Seahawks are a perfect 6-0 at home this season and certainly deserve all the respect in the world. At the same time, the 49ers went up there last year and buried the Hawks with a remarkable defensive effort in crunch time. They’ll do the same with a superior 2012 squad.
The 49ers repeat as NFC West division winners.
Washington Redskins (8-6)
The Redskins will clinch a playoff spot with a win and losses by New York, Chicago and Minnesota.
We’ve already established that the Giants will beat the Ravens. That alone would render the debate over this scenario unnecessary.
Either way, the Bears will salvage some NFL respectability as well with a win over the Cardinals.
Robert Griffin III and the Redskins’ takedown of the hapless Eagles will keep their postseason aspirations alive for the time being.
Seattle Seahawks (9-5)
The Seahawks will clinch a playoff spot with a win.
Unfortunately, they’ll have to find another way because San Francisco will earn the season sweep, as Seattle will drop its first one at home in a smash-mouth, grind-it-out divisional matchup.
So, what are their other options? Well, it’s a bit messy, but here it goes:
The Seahawks will clinch a playoff berth with a Chicago loss + Minnesota loss + Dallas loss or tie + Washington tie, OR Seattle tie + New York loss + Chicago loss or tie, OR Seattle tie + New York loss + Minnesota loss or tie, OR Seattle tie + Chicago loss or tie + Minnesota loss or tie, OR Seattle tie + Dallas loss + Washington loss + Chicago loss or tie, OR Seattle tie + Dallas loss + Washington loss + Minnesota loss or tie, OR Chicago loss + Minnesota loss + Washington loss.
Option No. 1: No; Chicago wins
Option No. 2: No; Seattle loses, New York wins, Chicago wins
Option No. 3: No; Seattle loses, New York wins
Option No. 4: No; Seattle loses, Chicago wins
Option No. 5: No; Seattle loses, Washington wins, Chicago wins
Option No. 6: No; Seattle loses, Washington wins
Option No. 7: No; Chicago wins, Washington wins
We can only hope that you at least gleaned the fact that Seattle will not clinch a spot in the postseason in Week 16.
New York Giants (8-6)
The Giants will clinch a playoff spot with a win and losses by Chicago, Minnesota, Dallas and Washington (or Redskins tie), OR win and losses by Chicago, Minnesota, Washington and tie by Dallas.
Again, the Giants will resurrect some late/postseason magic from years past and manhandle the fading Ravens on the road. On the other hand, the Bears will finally come alive against the 5-9 Cardinals and the Redskins will take care of the last-place Eagles with relative ease.
The Cowboys will suffer an upset at the hands of a Saints team with nothing to lose and fall to 8-7. That means Washington will maintain the NFC East division lead at 9-6, with the 9-6 Giants leapfrogging the now 8-7 Vikings.
New York will hold one of the wild card spots with the fellow 9-6 Seahawks.
The playoff livelihoods of the top three teams in the NFC East quite literally comes down to the last game of the season.
Week 17 looks to be a real doozy.
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