The “Border Battle” takes place Thursday night with both the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers resting at 2-2, and playing for a share of the NFC North lead (at least until the Lions play Sunday).
Last Sunday the Packers finally looked like the Packers that we're all used to seeing, after they went into Solider field and hung up 38 points on the Chicago Bears. Even after losing some of his biggest weapons, Aaron Rodgers continues to be one of the leagues best under center making guys like Jordy Nelson and Randal Cobb his new go-to receivers. Both wide-outs caught two touchdowns each last week and have combined for nearly 70% of Rodgers’ yards for the season.
Of course Rodgers wouldn’t have to toss the rock at this pace if his running game was up to par. Eddy Lacey who won the rookie of the year award last year, has sludged out the gate and failed to find any morsel of the same success he had last season averaging just 3.0 yards per carry, ranking the Packers 28th in the league in total rushing.
Meanwhile, the Vikings looked and sounded like an 18-wheel Mack truck on the ground last week when they ran through the Atlanta Falcons defense for 244 yards on 44 attempts. Both running backs Matt Asiata and Jerick McKinnon took turns driving the big rig, and doing doing damage when given the opportunity. On top of four total rushing touchdowns the Vikings averaged 5.5 yards per carry even with 44 rushes for the day.
However, that wasn’t the biggest excitement to come out of the Vikings backfield on the day, no sir that title belonged to their first-round pick, quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. Bridgewater made his first official start of his career making him the youngest (21) Viking to start at quarterback since Fran Tarkenton. While we’ll get to his hiccups later, Bridgewater played exceptionally well and was a clear improvement over former starter Matt Cassel with the way he was able to dissect defenses at the LOS, and anticipate his throwing lanes with sharp accuracy while pushing the ball downfield.
While the run game stole his touchdowns and fantasy points, Bridgewater threw for 317 yards and ran a score of his own in, but most importantly had zero interceptions thrown, by far the most critical stat of them all.
Now, knowing what we know from the information at hand here are the four biggest factors to this weeks Thursday night matchup of the “Border Battle”
First Down: Flat Tire
First and foremost is the healing of Bridgewater’s bum ankle that he tweaked near the end of Sundays game. While the MRI and test results came back negative Bridgewater was seen limping around, and is surly sore to some degree. The overall health of his ankle will play a huge factor in how both teams treat this game regrading their specific game plans.
While he wasn’t known for it during the pre draft process, Bridgewater’s athleticism and ability to make plays outside the pocket were two of his biggest assets against the Falcons. Numerous times Bridgewater was seeing leaving the pocket to extend plays and doing damage with his feet (5 rushes, 27 yards, one touchdown). However, with a flat tire Bridgewater’s ability to not only scramble, but move around fluidly in the pocket remains to be seen.
Rest assured the Packers defense will try to apply pressure to Bridgewater specifically from the edges where he will be forced to make the proper reads and deliver an accurate ball from inside the hashes. Guys like Clay Matthews, Julius Peppers, and even rookie saftey Ha Ha Clinton-Dix will be called upon to get into the backfield early in this game in hopes of forcing Bridgewater’s hand, as it relates to just how hurt he is playing.
If Bridgewater can’t go Thursday or is forced out of action at any point Christian Ponder will be the next man in line. Ponder has taken first-team reps this week in practice while Bridgewater has rested and said he’s preparing like he is going to start. While Christian’s wife Samantha is known for her extremely attractive good looks and suave style with the microphone it will undoubtedly have very little impact on the game itself, I just thought you should know.
Second Down: The Bully Named Mike
Even though this will be rookie head coach Mike Zimmer’s first trip to Lambeau as a Viking that doesn’t mean it will be his first rodeo with Aaron Rodgers. Zimmer has prepared and played against Rodgers twice in the past few seasons as defensive coordinator for the Cincinnati Bengals. During those two match ups Zimmer has had success attacking Rodgers (who is known for his sneaky mobility), and has tripped him to the ground like a big bully on the school yard getting away with it detention free.
The Bengals played Rodgers and company in 2009 and 2013 and came out on top in both those games giving Zimmer the 2-0 advantage. Rodgers threw for over 500 yards between both games but completed just 57% of his passes compared to his career average of 66% thanks to a mixed bag of tricks from Zimmer that resulted in efficient pressure. The consistent pressure generated led to a total of ten sacks in the two games and a clear degree of uncomfortableness of Rodgers in the pocket.
The Vikings have totaled a measly one sack in Zimmer’s “aggressive” defense during the past three games, but look to improve on that Sunday with more efficient blitzes. When I went back and watched the tape it was clear there is still plenty of work to do for Zimmer who took over a defense that ranked dead last in almost every category just a season ago, but some adjustments needed may be to blame on Zimmer him self.
For example, Zimmer sent rookie linebacker Anthony Barr up the middle on numerous blitzes only to get log jammed into traffic and stop his momentum. Where as sending Barr on a blitz around the edge would take advantage of his biggest asset, his quickness and speed, and allow him to get up to full steam while attacking the passer. Of course, there is always a full and thorough explanation for the things we see on tape, but in general Barr should be put in better positions to maximize his tool set.
Zimmer’s success against Rodgers can prove to be no fluke if he can repeat any type of the same performance he did in his previous two games against the Packers Thursday night. With the Packers having allowed 10 sacks of their own through the first four games, expect a “copy and paste” approach from Zimmer until Rodgers can make the proper adjustments.
Third Down: Norv’s Art Class 101
Drawing up the play design and writing a specific game plan is a facet of the game that generally is underrated compared to how much of an impact it has on the outcome of the game itself. Last week Vikings offensive coordinator Norv Turner had the tall task of creating a game plan for a rookie quarterback about to make his first career start. Turner didn’t flinch at the challenge and drew up a thorough design for Bridgewater that stressed the importance of getting him into a rhythm early in the game mixed with simplicity.
Tuner’s first pass for Bridgewater was a simply receiver screen to Jarius Wright (who would become Teddy’s favorite target) for an easy completion, albeit just a few yard gain. The very next play on third-down was another bubble screen to Wright who made a catch and run of over 50 yards, displaying Norv’s ability to not complex and overthink things for himself and Bridgewater, and allow his playmakers to take some pressure of his back. They would later score on an Asiata touchdown, after Bridgewater had completed all four of his passes helping the offense march down the field.
Throughout the game Norv implemented the same approach, putting Bridgewater in good positions to read the defense and make accurate throws. While Bridgewater made his share of mistakes and missed on some throws he would like to have back, for his first professional start many would agree he was lights out. Give credit to his offensive coordinator who will now have the tough task of doing it all over again on a short week.
Typically on short weeks coaches go into their bag of secrets and pull out some of their favorite go-to gadget plays that the defense hasnt seen on tape yet. With playmakers like Jarius Wright and Corderrelle Patterson watch out for some trickery from the Vikings offense to help continue to take pressure of Bridgewater while allowing him to get into a rhythm. Of course nothing helps Turner and his passing game more than an equally efficient running game creating a balanced attack.
Fourth Down: Rain Runners
While some have started to shift away from the theory the old adage still applies to the most fundamental keys of football, being you have to be able to run the ball and stop the run if you want to have any success in this game. So far the Packers haven’t been able to do either with much success so far this season which has Packers fans scratching their heads.
2013 Rookie of the year Eddy Lacy is averaging just 3.0 yards per carry and hasn’t had the running room that he’s been used too. Of course the Packers yearly offensive line injuries are part to blame, but there still seems to be some burst and physicality missing from the Alabama product.
While the majority of people aren’t hitting the panic button on Lacy yet hoping he will find more room and success when the passing game can get back to consistent play, its the defensive side of the ball that has people worried.
Again injuries can be partial blame when nose tackle B.J. Raji went on the IR during the preseason. From their its been a rotation of big bodies that have tried to pick up the slack like former Viking defeinsve tackle Letroy Guion and a mix of other veterans and rookies. The loss of Raji however has proven to be a huge blow to the middle of the defense and has made the life of everyone behind him that much tougher.
Last week the Bears came into the game ranking dead last rushing the ball and racked up an astounding 235 yards with a meaty 5.7 yards per carry while the Packers ran for just 56 yards on 18 attempts.
Things don’t get any easier for Guion and company this week after they will try to stop a two-headed monster of Asiata and McKinnon that bursted out of nowhere against the Falcons for 241 yards of their own. The Vikings will make it their top priority to establish a run game again this week, and if successful will in turn be able to open things up for Bridgewater off of the play-action reads.
While the Packers didn’t need any run game to blow past the Bears just remember that Jay Cutler gave the ball away two times, something Bridgewater has yet to do.
Both teams will have to adjust to the fields wet conditions after rain fell hard all week long. We saw last week in Soldier Field players lose their footing time and time again, making it difficult to stop and start like their used to. Thursday nights forecast calls for another chance of rain giving way to messy conditions.
Fantasy Outlook
Randal Cobb, Wide Receiver, Green Bay Packers
Cobb woke up his fantasy owners with a loud performance Sunday leading the team with 113 yards on seven receptions, and finding the end zone twice. Cobb is clearly the other half of Rodgers’ “go-to” crew opposite of Nelson. However, with Nelson being shadowed by Xavier Rhodes who held Julio Jones to a quiet afternoon, Cobb could be the first and only read on many pass plays.
Another key roll Cobb plays is from the slot where he will be matched up on Captain Munnerlyn. While Munnerlyn was the Vikings biggest free agent signing he has struggled thus far specifically when match up on smaller and quicker wide outs. Look for Cobb to lead the team in targets and take advantage of some mental errors by Munnerlyn from the slot.
Jerick McKinnon, Running Back, Minnesota Vikings
As far as we know the Vikings could still be running ala Forrest Gump straight to Lambeau from TCF stadium, where they trampled the Falcons on the ground last week.
It was McKinnon’s first big game of his rookie season and now holds the most yards for any rookie running back in one game this season with 135 yards. McKinnon displayed his freaky athleticism and bullet speed on a couple of plays and is sure to get plenty more touches after his performance. While his teammate Asiata did all the damage in the red zone it was McKinnon who raced them from the 20 to the 20 most of the day.
With Adrian Peterson still out and Kyle Rudolph injured, Norv Turner will get the ball in their other playmakers hands as much as possible with screens, reverses, and jet sweeps, all of which McKinnon is very dangerous with in open space.
Look for him to get an increased workload this week to help take pressure of Bridgewater and unlike last week take one of those long runs to the house. A dark horse fantasy candidate if your in a pinch against the leagues 28th worst rushing defense.
Final Prediction
This week for the Packers all eyes are on a non-exsistent running game and a defense thats gotten run all over thus far this season as they match up with a team red hot on the ground.
But, Aaron Rodgers says..
R-E-L-A-X.
He didnt need a run game before and wont need one now. Scoring 38 points in three quarters until they took the foot off the gas Rodgers is still one of the three best at his position in the game, and plays against a defense that although is improved, still ranked dead last in almost every category in 2013.
Combine that with a hobbled rookie quarterback under the brightest lights of his career and you've got a difficult task to go shot-for-shot and blow-for-blow with Rodgers in his own castle.
Vikings 27 Packers 34