The 3-2 Green Bay Packers are coming off consecutive blowout wins against the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings, now they head out to South Beach to take on a Miami Dolphins team that enjoyed a week off after steamrolling the Oakland Raiders in London. It will be an exciting matchup between two teams looking to prove they are a consistent football team.
Miami is excited to welcome back two starters this week—center Mike Pouncey will make his season debut, but start at right guard. Strong safety Reshad Jones will return after a four-game suspension, improving a Dolphins’ defense that was already 13th against the run this season.
Green Bay is pretty healthy overall when you look at their 53-man roster. Defensive end Datone Jones suffered an ankle sprain last Thursday against the Vikings, after the game McCarthy said his status for Wednesday’s practice was uncertain. Wide receiver Jarrett Boykin has missed the past two weeks with a knee injury and will likely miss Sunday’s game. Rookie Davante Adams has filled in nicely and caught his first touchdown last week, earning the trust of Aaron Rodgers.
Now let’s take a closer look at this game and key matchups and players to keep an eye on.
Key Matchups
Lamar Miller versus Packers Defensive Line: There’s a chance Knowshon Moreno returns this week and splits carries with Miller, but right now his status is uncertain. Miller has dominated this season behind an improved Dolphins’ offensive line and offensive coordinator Bill Lazor.
Miller has 277 rushing yards off 49 carries, an impressive 5.7 yards per carry. A big reason he has excelled is Miami’s offensive line opens up a small hole and Miller has the quickness and speed to burst through them.
This will pose a serious problem for a Packers’ defensive line that has been pushed around at the line of scrimmage all season. It starts inside where nose tackle Letroy Guion has been dreadful pushed around by a single blocker. Mike Daniels has thrived at times, but needs to consistently show he can create interior pressure. Against a strong offensive line and effective running attack, this will be the second toughest test the defensive line has faced this season.
Dolphins Secondary versus Packers Wide Receivers: When many people think about the great secondaries in the NFL, few mention the group that has shined in Miami. Brent Grimes, Cortland Finnegan and Jimmy Wilson have helped put together the ninth best defense versus the pass.
Wilson has struggled at times simply because he had to fill in at safety while Jones was out, but now he can slide back into the nickel corner spot. The biggest surprise from this group has been Finnegan who was written off after an ugly tenure with the St. Louis Rams, but has thrived with the Dolphins.
They will take on Jordy Nelson who is second in the league in receiving yards (525) and Randall Cobb who leads all wide receivers in touchdowns (6). Miami could move free safety Louis Delmas to Nelson’s side. Miami’s off-man coverage will be more risky against a smart quarterback like Rodgers, but pressure could help force some turnovers.
Cameron Wake versus Bryan Bulaga: This is the most important battle for Green Bay to keep an eye on. Bulaga has bounced back from a knee-scare against the Seattle Seahawks and had his best game against the Vikings, but there are few defensive linemen like Wake.
While Wake’s three-straight games without a sack seem bad, he has still generated 11 quarterback hurries on the season and five quarterback hits. He is a dominant force coming off the edge and the type of player who Green Bay will have to game plan specifically against. Expect Bulaga to get help throughout the day, which should open up opportunities for Earl Mitchell and Olivier Vernon.
Players to Watch
Jamari Lattimore, Inside Linebacker, Green Bay Packers: Lattimore stepped into the starting inside linebacker role next to A.J. Hawk after Brad Jones missed time with an injury. Lattimore emerged as a nice all-around linebacker who could move in coverage or come up against the run.
Now four weeks into his role as the starter, Lattimore has surpassed Jones on the depth chart and established himself as the better fit for this defense. He picked off his first pass of the season against the Vikings and is fourth on the team in tackles. He should have plenty of opportunities to bring down the running back this week and will need to step up if Green Bay wants to stop the run.
Ryan Tannehill, Quarterback, Miami Dolphins: Just a few weeks ago there was speculation out of Miami that it might be time for a change at quarterback. Head coach Joe Philbin wouldn’t commit to his quarterback days before their trip to London, then eventually said Tannehill would start.
Tannehill went on to complete 23 of 31 passes (74.2 percent) for 278 yards and two touchdowns against the Raiders’ secondary. His “struggles” this season really has been overblown. While there have been a few missed deep balls that could have resulted in big plays. The bigger issue has been Charles Clay, Brandon Gibson and Brian Hartline not playing up to their abilities thus far.
Tannehill will face a tough test against a talented Packers’ secondary that ranks sixth versus the pass entering the week. Green Bay has Sam Shields and Tramon Williams playing well on the outside, while Casey Hayward and Davon House have provided excellent help as well.
Attacking the secondary will be tough but one area where Tannehill can take advantage is with his legs. Green Bay has always struggled versus mobile quarterbacks and if Tannehill can move around and scramble for yards or roll out on the play action, he could find some open space in the secondary for a big play. If Green Bay can contain Tannehill and break out to an early lead, Miami will be forced to move away from the run and it will be up to Miami’s wide receivers to try and win against this secondary.
Prediction: Packers 27 Dolphins 21
This should be a close game, but the better quarterback wins in the end. This should be a very good battle of two quarterbacks taking on strong secondaries. Rodgers has the better surrounding talent and is the best player on the field, giving Green Bay the decisive advantage in this game.
Sunday is a key game for both teams. Miami wants to prove that they are more of the team that trampled the Raiders and New England Patriots, but not the club that was dysfunctional against the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs. Green Bay wants to prove they are back in dominant form and can beat teams in shootouts, but also win games with the help of their defense.
Of course, this is also the reunion between Rodgers and Philbin, who served as the Packers’ offensive coordinator for five seasons. Both sides will have some insight into how the other likes to run, but it will just neutralize itself in the end.
Stat Projections:
Passing:
Aaron Rodgers: 23/34, 287 yards, 3 TD’s, 1 INT
Ryan Tannehill: 26/40, 256 yards, 2 TD’s, 1 INT, 48 rush yards
Rushing:
Eddie Lacy: 17 carries, 72 yards
Lamar Miller: 18 carries, 107 yards, 1 TD
Receiving:
Jordy Nelson: 7 receptions, 78 yards, 1 TD
Randall Cobb: 5 receptions, 86 yards, 1 TD
Mike Wallace: 4 receptions, 68 yards, 1 TD
Jarvis Landry: 5 receptions, 47 yards, 1 TD