Last season we saw a tremendous battle between three teams for the AFC West Championship up until the final week. Through the initial three games of 2012 it appears we are going to see another battle down the wire.
In what will be a weekly feature on eDraft moving forward, we are going to take a look at each division, in separate articles, previewing matchups and taking a look at all the bells/whistles for that particular week.
The first set in that series of articles will be the AFC West, a division where all four teams will be going up against one another this week.
San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs
Two teams that experts were split on coming into the season. Some had concluded that San Diego’s talent would come alive and they would capture the division crown. Others looked at the injuries that Kansas City had to deal with last season and predicted a bounce back campaign.
The Chiefs went on to struggle through their first two games, while San Diego looked every bit the part of a division champ. Things changed a great deal last week. Kansas City defeated a deflated New Orleans Saints team in the Superdome, while San Diego laid a complete egg at home against the Atlanta Falcons.
They meet with first place on the line.
This game will be predicated on the ability of Philip Rivers to avoid mistakes and the health of Ryan Mathews. If those two things turn out in San Diego’s favor, they should be in good shape as the game progresses. They possess a 3-8 record when Rivers throws two or more interceptions and a 17-7 record when he doesn’t since the start of the 2010 season.
Meanwhile, a healthy Mathews will go a long way in bringing balance to San Diego’s offense. If he is able to touch the ball at least 20 times and provide some production, look for the Chargers offense to rebound in a big way following a disappointing performance against Atlanta last week.
Matt Cassel has continued to regress as Kansas City’s starting quarterback, which is troublesome for a franchise that relies on him a great deal offensively... At least in terms of success. Cassel is 5-9 in his last 14 starts after going 7-2 in his previous nine starts. The main culprit here is an inability to move the ball and turnovers.
With that in mind, Cassel performs extremely well when he has a solid running game behind him. Enter into the equation Jamaal Charles, who put up 288 total yards against New Orleans last week. If Charles is able to continue this production, Kansas City will be in good shape.
Fantasy Outlook
Is it easy to say that Charles will be the fantasy stud in this game. He is coming off a near record-setting performance and appears to be at 100 percent after missing a vast majority of the 2011 season.
It is, however, important to note that Charles did that against a Saints’ defense that has allowed nearly 1,500 total yards and 72 first downs in their first three games. You can expect him to struggle a bit more against a much better San Diego defense.
The player I expect to breakout in this game is Dwayne Bowe. He is going to be going up against a Chargers’ secondary that seems to struggle against bulkier wide receivers. I expect Bowe to put up at least 100 yards and a score.
Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos
Yet another important early-season matchup in the AFC West. Denver is looking to rebound from two disappointing losses in a row, while Oakland comes in riding high following a stunning victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers last week.
Oakland really seemed to find a solid balance of run and pass against Pittsburgh. Darren McFadden record his first 100-yard rushing game while Carson Palmer threw three touchdown passes in the win. They should be able to continue that against a more pedestrian Bronco’ defense.
On the other side of the ball this appears to be a total mismatch. Peyton Manning might have struggled in his first three games, but that was against vastly superior defenses than what he is going to be facing this week. Any quarterback in the NFL would have a hard time compiling consistently good statistics in a string of three games against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Atlanta Falcons and Houston Texans.
As Manning gets more comfortable with his new weapons and this new scheme, he will be a much more consistent fantasy performer. Expect that to start this week.
Fantasy Outlook
As I mentioned before, Manning is going to excel this week against a struggling Raiders’ defense. You can easily expect him to complete 60 percent of his passes for over 300 yards and three touchdowns.
On that note, Eric Decker is definitely someone to watch in terms of a solid WR2 option. He has been one of Manning’s favorite targets through the first three games and seems to have a nice rhythm with the future Hall of Fame quarterback.