As the 2014 season starts to wind down, we head into a crucial Week 17 with playoff seeding, home-field advantage and so much more on the line. While the race for Most Valuable Player seemed like a foregone conclusion just a few weeks ago, the gap has narrowed entering the final week.
Aaron Rodgers practically had his name etched into the MVP trophy before the flight to Buffalo, but a 17/42, 185-yard loss with zero touchdowns and two interceptions brought that to a screeching halt. Meanwhile, J.J. Watt continued to build his case, wreaking havoc in the opponent's backfield. Watt is certainly in consideration, but a defensive player hasn't won MVP since Lawrence Taylor achieved the feat in 1986.
MVP is historically a quarterback award. This will be the 57th year the Associated Press has announced the MVP, a quarterback has won it 37 times. While there can certainly be discussion about the MVP award itself and if the focus should be more about the best player rather than most valuable, there is an argument to be had. But Watt's season has been remarkable and where would the Texans be without their menace on defense.
Of course, there are other candidates who aren't receiving nearly as much recognition. While DeMarco Murray leads his position statistically, Le'Veon Bell has done more with less surrounding talent this year. He has been crucial for Pittsburgh in the second half of the season when they needed to get hot.
Let's take a look at my three MVP candidates and why each player has a case for being amongst the most valuable players in the NFL.
Aaron Rodgers Quarterback, Green Bay Packers
As mentioned above, MVP has been given out to the quarterback more than 60 percent of the time. We've seen that grow even more with the NFL now focused on a heavy passing game and gaudy numbers elevating the prominence of fantasy football and love for statistics.
Rodgers certainly delivers for the fans of statistics. He is third in touchdown passes with 36, but has thrown just six interceptions compared to Peyton Manning's 15 and Andrew Luck's 16. Of his five interceptions this season, four came on passes tipped off his wide receiver's hands. What makes his numbers more impressive are the fact that he has done it on 498 pass attempts, which is 14th in the NFL. Rodgers has put up the gaudy fantasy numbers, but his statistics go beyond that.
After 16 weeks, Rodgers leads the league adjusted net yards per attempt at 8.51 and is first in adjusted yards and ranked as Pro Football Focus top quarterback with a 37.5 grade. He has a nearly six-point advantage on the next closest quarterback, despite playing 100 fewer snaps. Numbers are important in an MVP debate whether some like it or not, but there are things behind the numbers that explain why a player is performing at that level.
Credit certainly has to go around, Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson are outstanding talents, while Eddie Lacy just surpassed 1,000 rushing yards this season. Green Bay's offensive line has long been a question mark, now rates as PFF's top in pass-protection. This is a credit to coaching and drafting, but even more so a credit to Rodgers. His ability pre-snap to read the defense and make adjustments in miliseconds, then carry that over during the play is incredible. The improvement along the offensive line certainly can be credited in large part because of Rodgers.
Rodgers has many great qualities, amongst them is his touch when throwing the football deep. Green Bay primarily works the shorter field and along the sidelines. Rodgers has attempted just 57 attempts 20-plus yards down the field this season, which ranks 15th, but those passes have resulted in 26 completions, 1,035 yards and an 11-1 TD-INT line per PFF. He is the best in the NFL at finding big plays downfield.
What NFL fans are witnessing is a Hall of Fame quarterback perform at a level we haven't seen in ages. He isn't going to break records because the Packers don't throw the football 600 times a season. Mistakes are not frequent for him, you won't see him lose velocity on a pass like Peyton Manning or miss wildly on throws like other strong-armed quarterbacks. He is the greatest player at his position and given the importance for the Packers and the value of the quarterback position, how could he not be the Most Valuable Player?
Opponents of Rodgers for MVP would suggest the success of Matt Flynn and Scott Tolzien in 2013 is proof Rodgers is in a system where his numbers and value is inflated. When Rodgers left versus the Chicago Bears in 2013, Green Bay was 5-2 and easily would have been 6-2 if he played the whole game. Scott Tolzien replaced an injured Seneca Wallace in Week 10, then went on to throw a touchdown with two interceptions. In three appearances (two starts), Tolzien finished with one touchdown and five interceptions in three losses. You can admire his 717 passing yards, but he faced a defense that had eight in the box to stop Eddie Lacy.
Flynn entered the game pulled off a 26-26 tie in Lambeau field against the 2-8 Minnesota Vikings. Green Bay was obliterated 40-10 by the LIons on Thanksgiving, but in fairness went on to win the next two versus Atlanta and Dallas. Against the Falcons, Flynn completed 24 of 32 passes for 259 yards with a touchdown and an interception. He threw four touchdowns against the Cowboys, but all of them came inside the 15 and Lacy did most of the heavy lifting, rushing for over 141 yards versus an eight-man box. After a 38-31 loss to the Steelers in Week 16, Tolzien and Flynn turned a 5-2 record into 7-7-1.
Of course, it could easily be argued that those wins were more so a product of a defensive turnaround and emphasis on the running game more so than sustainable play by Tolzien or Flynn. Lacy was a rookie and fought through stacked boxes to try and move the chains, just giving the Packers' defense time to rest. Keep in mind these weren't elite defenses Flynn and Tolzien were facing either; Dallas ranked 26th, Atlanta 27th and Minnesota 32nd in the NFL. If the Packers lost Rodgers for an entire season and Flynn was the quarterback, they are likely a five-win team. Green Bay's defense wasn't that respectable either, but they stepped up when Rodgers was out.
There have been some bad moments–in Green Bay's four losses this season, he has thrown just three touchdowns and five interceptions. Seattle, Detroit and Buffalo are all elite defenses who kept Rodgers off-balance and forced bad throws. Against all three teams he looked like a regular quarterback who made poor throws and his team fell short. None more so than against Buffalo, whre it was the worst game of his career. Could that be enough to push him down in the MVP race?
J.J. Watt, Defensive End, Houston Texans
Now if we are talking about picking the player who was the most dominating, you won't find a case stronger than Watt. A year after losing out on Defensive Player of the Year for not having a strong statistical season, there is no question who will win the award this year. The conversation starts and ends with Watt, but he has been so absurd this season, he is tied to the MVP discussion.
Statistically, Watt is making other Pro-Bowl defensive players look miniscule in comparison. For players like Cameron Wake, Robert Quinn and Sheldon Richardson, reaching 20 quarterback hits is a successful display of their ability to get after the quarterback. 20 hits is amateur for Watt, his 43 hits more than double that of the next closest defensive lineman. That ability to ruin an opponent's game plan and get into the head of the quarterback not only provides a physical advantage on your opponent, but a physcological advantage as well.
Look beyond his 18 sacks, a number that doesn't account for a sack on a two-point conversion last week or plays he made that were nullified by a teammate's penalty. Watt has combined for 110 total pressures through 16 games, which nearly doubles the next closest end for Pro Football Focus. You also can't ignore that teams are gameplanning against, him every week a coaching staff is trying to figure out how they can run away from Watt or send more protection to his side. He has carried this defense and made things easier for his teammates to produce, which makes Jadeveon Clowney's injury even more disheartening.
Watt creates an even bigger impact just at the line of scrimmage. He can shred the blocker in front of him and devour the ball-carrier, creating a stop as he has done 56 times this season. Now you could point to Watt's 56 stops and compare it to DeAndre Levy's league-leading 75, but Levy is enabled to make more stops because of the defensive line soaking up blockers in front of him. Which means you can credit Whitney Mercilus and Brian Cushing's 28 stops right back to Watt.
His presence at the line of scrimmage is also felt by quarterbacks who have a pass swatted down by his 34' inch arms. Watt's not being asked to drop back into coverage, yet he would still finish fourth amongst defensive backs with 10 passes deflected. For a defensive lineman to achieve 10-plus PD's every year, it takes lightning-quick reflexes, long arms and outstanding awareness.
You can't ignore his new role on the offense, coming in at times near the goal line to serve as a red-zone threat. Watt's not standing wide open either, he is hauling in touchdown passes with a linebacker right over him. He has three receiving touchdowns this season and five total touchdowns, becoming the first defensive lineman to achieve that feat since 1944.
He is also a great representation and fan favorite for blue-collar fans. Watt has become famous for his bloody face during games. He doesn't take plays off, Watt's motor is always running and at times it means he gets hit in the face and blood follows. Zach Mettenberger learned the hard way about how Watt feels about selfies and distractions away from the game.
Houston certainly improved this season, going from a two-win team to eight wins in 2014. Does Watt deserve credit for the six-game improvement or is it more so the upgrade from Matt Schaub to Ryan Fitzpatrick and Arian Foster staying healthy. If you take Watt off the Texans roster this year, do they only win two games or do they see limited improvement and perhaps win five games.
Of course, Watt's at a disadvantage in the MVP race because he is a defensive player. 5 total touchdowns, 20-plus sacks and 60-plus stops aren't as appealing as 40 touchdowns, 4,300 yards and just five interceptions. Reggie White's 21 sacks in 12 games during the 1987 season weren't enough for him to win MVP, nor were Michael Strahan's 22.5 sacks MVP worthy in 2001. While we now have more advanced statistics to show just how dominant a player has been, is Watt's season so remarkable that he deserves MVP?
There are certain factors that have to be considered and there will be a debate between Watt's value and his performance. Maybe he didn't have as much of an impact on wins and losses as a quarterback, but Watt played at a level no defensive lineman has sniffed in over a decade.
Le'Veon Bell, Running Back, Pittsburgh Steelers
Much of the MVP focus at running back has been spotlighted on DeMarco Murray. He leads the NFL in rushing touchdowns (12) and holds a 500-yard advantage over the field in rushing yards. This has been his breakout season as the Cowboys' workhorse back, 427 touches for 2,140 total yards. But if you consider the circumstances, the best running back this season is in Pittsburgh.
Bell hasn't run behind PFF's second-highest graded offensive line, an advantage that Murray certainly has going for him with Tyron Smith, Zack Martin, Travis Frederick and Ronald Leary creating holes for him. Instead, he started the season sharing touches with an uninterested LeGarrette Blount, Todd Haley's strange decisions and running behind Ramon Foster and Mike Adams.
For 10 weeks, this was Bell's situation and he produced anyway. Bell is an all-around back, playing a role in the running game and receiver. In 10 games, Bell had 162 carries for 747 yards and 55 receptions for 466 receiving yards and just three total touchdowns. The lack of touchdowns can be attributed to Blount being put in near the goal line, or Haley's decision to rely heavily on the passing game. Still, 1,213 total yards on 217 touches is impressive.
Pittsburgh felt steady at 6-4, but in need of a boost if they wanted to reach the playoffs. Facing a Titans' defense that was dreadful versus the run, Blount never saw the field and Bell was unleashed on Monday Night Football. After 33 carries for 204 yards and a touchdown, the Steelers released Blount and made Bell their featured back. After carrying the ball less than 20 times in seven of the past 10 games, Bell was finally given the opportunity to lead the offense and he is the reason Pittsburgh will be fighting for an AFC North title this Sunday.
Pittsburgh's reliance on Bell carried over after the Week 12 bye. Even in their 35-32 loss to New Orleans, Bell rushed for 95 yards and a touchdown paired with 159 receiving yards. Where greatness is truly measured however is how you perform on the biggest stage and in a divisional battle versus Cincinnati, Bell buried the Bengals defense for three touchdowns, 185 rushing yards and 50 receiving yards. He was the reason Pittsburgh blew out the Bengals and put them near the top of the AFC North. It also extended Bell's streak to three consecutive games with 200-plus total yards, an achievement only Walter Payton has achieved.
There are plenty of running backs who specialize in one area, whether it be running the ball, pass blocking or catching the ball. Murray excels at fighting for yards and always moving the ball and has been solid out of the backfield, but can't be relied upon in pass protection. Bell is the better receiver, a significantly better pass blocker and equally as talented taking the handoff and finding a hole.
Bell's breakout season this year is even more special because of the transformation he made in such a short time. He came out of the 2013 NFL Draft at nearly 250 pounds with nice vision and morphed into a 225 pound machine with exceptional quickness, 20/20 vision and the patience of a saint. He doesn't rush things, just sit back and watch him navigate the backfield, waiting to find the right hole then bursting through it.
If you are looking at rushing numbers, it's true that Bell doesn't have as many yards as Murray. But compare their yards per carry, Bell averages 4.8 yards per carry to Murray's. It may not seem like much, but when you factor in Murray's 91 additional carries to Murray and the offensive line, Bell's been the best running back. Bell's been the much better receiver this season, 77 receptions for 778 yards and 10.1 yards per catch versus Murray's 54 receptions for 395 yards and 7.3 yards per catch.
A running back is not winning MVP this year, it's just not going to happen. But when talking about MVP candidates specifically at RB, Bell is far and away the MVP of his position. He has elevated himself to a new level in multiple ways, while helping carry this team back into the playoffs and a team you can't sleep on once the playoffs start.
Verdict: Aaron Rodgers
The trickiest thing about recent MVP awards is the discussion has now shifted to trying to figure out what valuable means in the award's sense and what it means for a defensive player. If you take away an All Pro quarterback from a team, they will more than likely see a four-plus game differential in wins. If you remove an All Pro linebacker or defensive end, the team will be hurt, but wouldn't be affected as negatively compared to losing the same caliber quarterback. But if that's the case, a quarterback will almost always win the award. A strong case could be made that MVP the should be given to the player that had the best season, regardless of position.
This is a vote for the player who as the most valuable to his team this season. Look back to the Packers collapse when Rodgers went down in 2013 and where they are now. He is putting up Manning-esque numbers from last season, but he is playing the most important position as well as you could ask for.
As for Watt, maybe this could be the year that there is a real discussion about trying to make changes to the award. If Watt doesn't win it this season, I'm not sure what else a defensive player could do to win the award. Watt has been the best football player this season, he just hasn't been the most valuable to his overall team.