Yes, the Buffalo Bills aren’t often thought of as producing anything relevant in the fantasy world. One would normally expect a host of duds from his disreputable franchise over the past decade.
But don’t so quickly discount the Bills as a team without any viable fantasy options. Look no further than C.J. Spiller, who ranked No. 7 among running backs with 212.30 points in 2012. Even tight end Scott Chandler accumulated a legitimate 91.10 points (No. 14 overall) when catching passes from a not-so-respectable Ryan Fitzpatrick.
We, however, will look in another direction.
Leading Bills receiver Stevie Johnson will fall off his 1,046-yard, six-touchdown, top-20 fantasy perch this season. Let’s find out why and by how much.
If you thought the quarterback situation was lacking with Fitzpatrick last year, expect an even more maddening situation in 2013. The Bills feature journeyman Kevin Kolb and rookie E.J. Manuel as their top two men under center. Good luck, Mr. Johnson.
Kolb is notorious for injury-shortened seasons and for playing scared and ineffective when the pocket collapses. He started just nine games after being traded to the Arizona Cardinals to become their No. 1 guy in 2011. He then took the starting snaps in four fewer contests one season later and was summarily abandoned by the team.
Through four seasons when seeing starting action, Kolb has yet to produce a 1,000-yard or double-digit TD campaign. Couple that lowly track record with the offensive line losing one of the NFL’s elite guards in Andy Levitre, and there isn’t a high probability that Johnson will have nearly 80 catches and over 1,000 yards for a fourth-consecutive year.
Compounding matters for No. 13 is if Manuel assumes the role of No. 1 QB. Buffalo management overreached to a ridiculous extent by selecting Manuel in the first round. He would have been available in the third or even fourth round due to his status as a multi-year project. The former Florida State gunslinger just isn’t ready to start—let alone star—at the NFL level. Johnson can’t possibly expect to benefit with Manuel under center.
Another negative aspect with regards to the quarterback-receiver connection is a lack of accurate throwing and Johnson’s propensity for drops. Kolb has never been known for his pinpoint passing at the pro level (career 59.5 percent), while rookies are rarely expected to post a high completion percentage in Year One—Manuel included. And Johnson dropped the fifth-most passes among wideouts last season (11), not to mention ranking dead last with 13 in 2010.
Regardless of who will be handling quarterback duties this season, the Bills will implement a run-intensive offense. Spiller gained over 1,200 rushing yards in 2012 and is clearly the team’s best player. Fred Jackson is a dynamic back in his own right and helps create a formidable one-two punch in the backfield.
Buffalo simply features more talent at RB than it does at quarterback and receiver—handing the ball off more than passing it will be more conducive to success. After all, these backs—along with No. 3 man Tashard Choice—accounted for 13 of the team’s 36 offensive touchdowns last year. Expect that to continue in 2013.
Look for Johnson to lose his status as a decent No. 1, great No. 2 fantasy receiver, and find himself rocking a WR3 label this season. Although we won’t blame him for this demotion to fantasy dud, we anticipate a 700-yard, four-TD and sub-100-point campaign from him nonetheless.
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