Ben Tate, Houston Texans
Tate entered his contract year primed to break the bank and earn a huge payday this offseason. Unfortunately for the former second-round pick, he struggled a great deal on a bad Texans team. Tate finished with just over 900 total yards and four scores on 215 touches. On the surface those numbers aren't too bad, but they definitely don't signifiy that he's prepared to become a top-tier running back as a starter for another team.
The Auburn product has indicated multiple times that he doesn't expect to be back in Houston, and for good reason. It doesn't have the cap room to spend on another running back, especially with Arian Foster set to count $27 million against the cap over the next three seasons.
Despite said struggles last year, Tate is still the most attractive free agent running back this offseason. At 25, he still has less than 500 career attempts under his belt and would provide a spark to multiple teams around the league.
Various reports have linked Tate to the New York Jets, Cleveland Browns and New York Giants. Cleveland was linked to him during the 2013 season as a possible trade option, but its now running things under a completely different front office. There is no way to gauge potential interest the Browns may have at this point. Meanwhile, the Jets have a decent tandem in Chris Ivory and Bilal Powell. It's hard to imagine them spending a decent chunk of change on a veteran. Instead, we can expect Rex Ryan and Co. to look to draft to fill out their depth chart there.
While the Giants are also an intriguing option, we'd have to expect that their primary focal points will be to 1) retain Andre Brown and 2) draft another mid-round running back option.
It's all conjecture on my part, but I expect the Tennessee Titans to show a nice amount of interest here. They are likely going to release Chris Johnson at some point in the offseason and will be looking at either free agency or the draft to fill the starting running back job. Tate is unlikely to find a deal that will pay him the $5 million per season that was reported months ago. Something to the tune of a four-year, $16 million deal makes sense.
Projection: Tennessee Titans
Knowshon Moreno, Denver Broncos
It could easily be stated that Moreno owes Peyton Manning a large chunk of the money he's set to earn in free agency this offseason. After all, the former first-round pick was nothing more than a bust prior to Manning's arrival.
As history points out, especially with how well Joseph Addai, among others performed with Manning, he has the ability to up the level of play of his running backs. Just how well will Moreno perform without Manning in the backfield with him? That's a huge question potential suitors will have to ask themselves when considering a run at Moreno.
For his part, Moreno has indicated that he's interested in returning to the Broncos. The likelihood of that happening, however, is remote. John Elway and Co. spent a second-round pick on Montee Ball last season and a third rounder on Ronnie Hillman in 2012. They just don't have the need to pay Moreno fair-market value.
What is said fair-market value? We'd have to look at between $3 and $4 million per season at this point. As Rotoworld points out, Steven Jackson's (four-year, $16 million) isn't terribly likely for Moreno, even if he's younger than Jackson.
If Moreno's market does level out at about $4 million per, he'll likely be a highly-coveted free agent. At this point, my educated guess is that he remains in the AFC West with the Oakland Raiders. Both Rashad Jennings and Darren McFadden (see below) are free agents and are likely to move on. In addition, it's hard to imagine the Raiders spending a top-round pick on a running back in May with so many more needs. With nearly $70 million to spend under the cap, Reggie McKenzie's team has the ability to pay Moreno more than any other team in the NFL.
Projection: Oakland Raiders
Rashad Jennings, Oakland Raiders
I had the pleasure of sitting down with Jennings last season shortly prior to him taking over for an injured Darren McFadden. The veteran running back is as impressive in person as he is on the field.
He indicated to me that starting wasn't important and he just wanted to contribute to the team any way that he can. In an interesting twist, Jennings was called on to be the Raiders starter the following week.
He responded by putting up over 1,000 total yards and six touchdowns while averaging over five yards per touch on the season.
It wasn't too long ago that Jennings was considered a solid young running back in the NFL. Playing for the Jacksonville Jaguars as Maurice Jones-Drew's backup in 2010, the Liberty product put up 6.2 yards per touch. Unfortunately, he was injured the following preseason and missed the entire 2011 campaign. The 28-year-old running back now has the opportunity to cash in on what was a great 2013 season.
Teams looking for either a stopgap measure at running back or someone to shoulder the load with an in-house candidate will definitely be lining up to speak with Jennings. While anything over $3 million per season is a dream at this point, look for the underrated running back to receive a longer-term deal than those listed below him in this article.
Look for a team like the New York Giants to seriously consider this option, especially if they cannot retain Brown. Tom Coughlin's team could easily run out Jennings, David Wilson (barring injury) and a rookie and be much better off than they were last seaosn. It also wouldn't come with much of a guarantee in terms of cash beyond the 2014 season.
Projection: New York Giants
Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders
Look for McFadden to receive a one-year, incentive-laden prove-it deal. That's all he can expect after missing 40 percent of Oakland's games over the past three seasons and 30 percent of its games since being drafted No. 4 overall back in 2008.
When on the field, DMC is one of the best all-around running backs in the league. He's averaging 79 total yards per game and five yards per touch throughout his six years in the NFL. Teams will show interest, but it appears that the Raiders won't be one of them. Head coach Dennis Allen indicated that Jennings will be a priority in the offseason, while not mentioning McFadden a single time.
Who gives McFadden the best opportunity to show the rest of the league he can be a top-tier running back? You answer that question and you'll have a pretty good understaind of where he'll land in the offseason.
My money is on the Miami Dolphins, who struggled finding any sort of a running game last season with Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas. It's not a secret that they will be in the market for a running back this offseason and they have the necessary money to spend. As it is, McFadden is likely not looking at much more than $1.5 million in guarantees on a one-year deal.
Projection: Miami Dolphins