For those that predicted the San Francisco 49ers and Atlanta Falcons reaching the NFC Championship Game, pat yourselves on the back.
The top-two teams from the National Football Conference indeed made it to the penultimate game. San Francisco blasted the Packers 45-31 in the divisional round, while Atlanta overcame the Seahawks 30-28 via a field goal with less than 10 seconds remaining.
The 49ers will now travel to the Falcons’ Georgia Dome for a 3:00 pm ET matchup on Sunday to decide who’ll advance to the Super Bowl.
It’s a game that will oddly feature a collection of top five’s and top 10s, as well as bottom five’s and bottom 10s on both sides of the ball.
With that in mind, let’s dissect some major battles within this matchup and offer a prediction on who’s moving forward to SB XLVII.
Strength vs. Weakness
The 49ers harbored top-four rankings in rushing defense and offense, as well as passing and total defense. Their scoring offense was a respectable No. 11, while the Seahawks were the only team that allowed fewer than 17.1 points per game.
San Francisco rushed for over 150 yards per contest behind Frank Gore and Colin Kaepernick’s combined 1,629 yards and 13 touchdowns. Only two teams accrued a higher average than its collective 5.1 per carry, with just one squad producing more gains of 20-plus yards than the 49ers’ 17.
Atlanta, meanwhile, rated out as 21st overall against the run. It allowed 123.2 yards per contest and the fifth-most TDs at 16 on the season. Worse yet, it held the unfortunate distinction of surrendering the most gains of 40-plus yards (eight).
Jim Harbaugh’s run-dominant group actually doubled its average production in the beat-down of Green Bay last week.
Kaepernick established an NFL record for rushing yards by a quarterback with 181 on 16 carries. He gashed the Packers on both the left and right sides for TDs of 20 and 56 yards.
Gore added 119 yards and one TD, his second-highest output in 2012. Backups LaMichael James and Anthony Dixon brought up the rear with 23 more yards and a score for a grand total of 323 yards and four TDs.
To be sure, this is the overwhelmingly pass-first NFL, and not some triple-option, rush-happy attack by Air Force at the NCAA level.
In any case, the Falcons made a pretty strong showing in their first postseason contest. They matched their 2012 average with 123 yards allowed, but they also gave up two TDs to Seattle, notably Marshawn Lynch’s two-yard score with 31 seconds left.
We expect that the 49ers will put up a rushing total somewhere in the middle. Count on 200-plus yards and two TDs on Sunday.
Atlanta is simply too weak up front with tackles Corey Peters and Jonathan Babineaux. Weak-side linebacker Sean Weatherspoon also represents a huge deficiency against the run.
Shutdown Defense vs. Predictable Attack
Additionally, the 49ers did a phenomenal job defending both the rush and pass in 2012.
They smothered the opponents’ run game to the tune of 94.2 yards per contest, the third-lowest average per rush (3.7), third-fewest TDs (seven) and fourth-fewest gains of 20-plus yards allowed (nine).
In doing so, they made numerous teams completely one-dimensional and grounded their top-notch aerial assaults. They accomplished this feat against the Packers (twice), Lions, Saints and Patriots—all four games resulting in 49er wins.
Aldon Smith’s 19.5 sacks, Patrick Willis’ shutdown coverage of tight ends and Tarell Brown’s zero-TDs allowed played huge roles against opposing passing games overall.
Their playoff victory over Green Bay featured an interception, numerous QB pressures and just one TD and less than 200 yards given up to the league’s No. 1-rated passer Aaron Rodgers until the final drive of the fourth quarter.
We expect a similar outcome this weekend.
The Falcons averaged the fourth-lowest total in rushing yards per game (87.3) and cumulative gains of 20 or more yards (nine). Their 3.7 yards per rush warranted a No. 30 ranking out of 32 teams in the NFL.
Atlanta’s 167 yards last week was a result of a worn-out Seahawks’ defense that didn’t find its usual dominance until later in the game. Such shortcomings will not plague San Francisco against Michael Turner and Jacquizz Rodgers.
Matt Ryan, to his credit, did generate the sixth-most productive passing attack in 2012. He threw 32 TD passes and earned a 99.1 efficiency rating (both No. 5).
Ryan was just as magnificent against Seattle. Minus an ill advised second interception, his three TDs and fourth-quarter game-winning drive—tied for the most in the NFL this season (seven)—were highlights of a fantastic performance.
However, with the Falcons already being one-dimensional and with the 49ers’ fourth-best pass defense, we do not envision Ryan doing the same in the Conference Championship.
To wit, Justin Smith returned against Green Bay from a torn triceps injury suffered in Week 15. Even with it not being fully healed, he commanded his usual double teams and made the entire defense around him better.
He put up four solo tackles, four assisted stops, two QB hits and four pressures according to team film review (via Matt Maiocco of CSN Bay Area).
Linebackers Willis, NaVorro Bowman, Aldon Smith and Ahmad Brooks played at higher levels versus the Packers because of his presence. The same went for Brown, Carlos Rogers and safety Dashon Goldson.
Green Bay’s rushers amassed just 76 yards on the ground (minus Rodgers’ three QB scampers). The team had to abandon the run game in the second half as well.
Furthermore, no Packers’ receiver totaled more than 87 yards against this unit. Greg Jennings’ TD catch occurred in garbage time during the final quarter to boot.
Said 49er defenders will matchup well against the Falcons’ imposing receiving corps of Roddy White, Julio Jones and tight end Tony Gonzalez. We must not also forget San Francisco’s physical corner Chris Culliver.
The second-year CB ranks in the top 10 with a mere completion percentage allowed of 49.3.
Final Thoughts
We cannot reasonably expect the 49ers to completely shut out White, Jones and Gonzalez. They averaged 1,160 yards and eight TDs apiece.
But we can forecast minimal production, or numbers otherwise accumulated when the game is already out of reach. And Turner and Rodgers, despite providing complementary brute power and speed, do not pose as game-long threats on the ground.
Only the Falcons’ formidable work in pass protection gives them an upper hand. The offensive line was responsible for just 28 sacks, the fifth-lowest number this year.
The 49ers will rack up four offensive TDs, with Kaepernick, Gore, Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis sharing the honors—similar to what occurred last week. Except this time they’ll square off against the No. 23-ranked pass defense and the aforementioned 21st run D.
Tight ends Davis and Delanie Walker will take advantage of the Falcons’ poor coverage linebackers Akeem Dent and Stephen Nicholas underneath. Cornerback Dunta Robinson and his 66.0 completion percentage, 102.4 efficiency rating and four TDs allowed have created a liability in the secondary as well.
San Francisco’s coaching staff will find a way to move Crabtree and Randy Moss in Robinson’s coverage area and away from Asante Samuel and safety Thomas DeCoud’s.
David Akers will also contribute two successful field-goal conversions in a personal reclamation effort.
For the game itself, we’ll go with a final prediction of 49ers 34, Falcons 24.
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