This could possibly go down as the shortest fantasy football article ever written. No fantasy value. Is that clear enough? But again, you all know how much I like to hear my voice, or in this case read my own words.
New San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Steve Johnson may be going from a losing organization to a winning team, but those who have relied on him to provide some solid fantasy numbers are going to be sorely disappointed in 2014.
Before we get into that, let's check in really quick on how Johnson performed with the Buffalo Bills last season.
Last season saw Johnson put up his worst numbers since 2009. He recorded just 52 receptions for 597 yards and three touchdowns in 12 games. Dealing with injury issues and inept quarterback play, Johnson failed to record 1,000 yards for the first time since that 2009 season.
Looking at our advanced statistics for a second, Johnson put up either 100 yards or one touchdown in just four games last season. This put his consistency ranking at 25 percent, just ahead of Tavon Austin and right behind Steve Smith. Interestingly enough, all three veterans had what have to be considered down seasons in 2013.
Despite the down season, Johnson did lead all Bills receivers with a 54.7 percent catch rate. He was also targeted nearly eight times per games and dropped 8.4 percent of the passes thrown in his direction.
Looking back at Johnson's last full season with a decent quarterback under center, he performed much better. The 27-year-old wide receiver caught 79 passes for 1,046 yards and six scores. He was targeted nine times per game, caught 55 percent of the passes thrown in his direction and 7.6 percent of targeted passes.
See some consistency here?
Johnson has never wowed with a high catch percentage due to a combination of lackluster quarterback play and an below-average drop rate. He's caught a touchdown per 10.8 receptions and 18.8 targets. Those are decent fantasy numbers right there, but only when he's projected to receive a nice amount of targets. That's an average of 8.5 targets over the course of a 16-game schedule with a 56.3 percent catch rate throughout his career.
With that said, it would be utterly foolish to project that Johnson will receive anywhere near his average per game targets in 2014 with the 49ers. If he did, we would be able to project the following stat line.
77 receptions, 978 yards and seven touchdowns
Needless to say, that's not going to happen.
Looking at San Francisco's pass distribution last season clouds our projections for Johnson even further. Michael Crabtree missed the first 11 games of the season. Anquan Boldin averaged 6.5 targets per game and Vernon Davis 5.1 with Crabtree out of action.
When San Francisco's No. 1 wide receiver did return during the final five games of the season, things got a tad more interesting. Boldin and Davis combined to average 13.4 targets per game compared to 11.6 when Crabtree was sidelined. For his part, Crabtree put up an average of six targets per game during the regular season.
So how were Davis and Boldin able to see their targets increase with Crabtree back in the mix? Well, it's rather simple. Jim Harbaugh and Co. allowed Colin Kaepernick to open up the offense a tad when all three were healthy. Magnifying that point further is the fact that Kaepernick averaged nearly 29 attempts per game in those five outings compared to 24 attempts per outing when Crabtree was sidelined.
San Francisco has run the least amount of three-wide sets in the NFL since Harbaugh took over back in 2011. Some of this has to do with Davis being considered a tight end and playing 88 percent of possible snaps during that span. Another factor here is that San Francisco simply hasn't had viable options down on the depth chart at wide receiver. Remember, Crabtree and Boldin played in just five regular season games together last year. In fact, Boldin and recently departed Kyle Williams were the only two 49ers wide receivers to play more than 300 snaps last year. Think about that for a second.
All that's fine and dandy, but short of Kaepernick all of a sudden attempting as many passes as a Matthew Stafford or Drew Brees, it's highly unlikely that Johnson is going to put up similar numbers to what we saw during the three-year span from 2010-2012 in Buffalo.
We can expect the 49ers to open up their offensive more in 2014 than in the past. They now have ample passing targets for Kaepernick and should be shooting to spread the field in an effort to give him that run-pass option with less defenders in the box. Let's say Kaepernick's pass attempts increase to 30 per game, which is a likelihood at this point. How much of a share of the pie will Johnson receive?
Taking into account the averages we have seen from San Francisco's top-three pass-catching targets (Boldin, Crabtree and Davis) we are likely looking at about 21 combined targets between the three. That leaves an average of nine per game to go to Frank Gore, Vance McDonald, Quinton Patton, Carlos Hyde, Steve Johnson and whoever else they throw out on the field.
This indicates a ceiling of about five targets per outing for Johnson. Taking into account natural progression in terms of catch rate because he's no longer the No. 1 target and won't be going up against top cornerbacks, we can expect a ceiling of 50 receptions for 635 yard and four touchdowns. That's an indication that Johnson will be no better than a decent bench or bottom-feeder FLEX option in 2014.