As the NFL Preseason kicks off and fantasy owners gather more information for who to target in their fantasy leagues this season, more fantasy drafts are taking place, which provides us with more data for tracking the average draft position of players. Thanks to FantasyPros, which tracks and updates the average draft position (ADP) across ESPN, Yahoo Sports, NFL.com and CBS Sports, we can see a larger ADP consensus.
Now with these ADP lists in mind, we can take a look at where players are going, where the value is and which players are being drafted ahead of where they should go and below where they should go. Right here, we'll take a look at the top 10 most over-drafted players. This will examine where the player is by ADP, why they are being taken too high and other options that present more value in that range.
Aaron Rodgers, Quarterback, Green Bay Packers
ADP: 11th Overall
The strategy of drafting a quarterback in the first round is still one that mystifies me to this day. Last year, Peyton Manning was going top-seven in fantasy drafts after his record-breaking 2013 season. In 2012 fantasy drafts, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Matthew Stafford were all going in the top-12.
Perhaps people are drawn towards total points and the appeal of having the top quarterback. It's the marquee position in the NFL and people feel they need a high-scoring quarterback to be a contender. But fantasy football contenders aren't built off of quarterbacks; contenders rely heavily on running backs. It's the position that's most crucial, where if you don't have a top-12 running back, the pickings get slim and your options for an RB1 include Alfred Morris, Frank Gore and Latavius Murray.
At 11th overall, on average Rodgers is going ahead of players like DeMarco Murray, Jeremy Hill, Rob Gronkowski and LeSean McCoy. Instead of having an RB1 on your team and taking one of the last guys before the drop off or taking far and away the best tight end, with a crater-sized gap between him and Jimmy Graham, you are taking a quarterback in the first round.
You can draft a Ryan Tannehill or Eli Manning in Round 9-10 and spend your first two picks on running backs or a running back and tight end. Being a fantasy football contender is all about finding value in the draft, not about having the best quarterback. Just please people, stop taking quarterbacks in the first round.
Matt Forte, Running Back, Chicago Bears
ADP: Seventh Overall
I'm in favor of drafting running backs in the first round, but Forte lands in this spot because of whom he is picked over. Jeremy Hill, DeMarco Murray and C.J. Anderson are all going after Forte on average. Forte is still going to be a very good running back, but better options could be available.
The 30-year-old is coming off a season when he had 1,038 rushing yards on 266 carries, paired with 102 receptions for 808 receiving yards. He is going to see a major hit in his receptions, though it will mean an increase in carries. He can still reach a 1,000 yards but I just don't see a 10-touchdown season coming from him. If he has 1,600 total yards and eight touchdowns, I'm still not sure I'd take that over Hill, Anderson or Murray.
Emmanuel Sanders, Wide Receiver, Denver Broncos,
ADP: 29th Overall
Even after Sanders admitted he won't put up the same numbers fantasy owners saw from him in 2014, people continue to spend a top-30 pick on him. Yes, Sanders was outstanding last season, hauling in 101 receptions for 1,404 receiving yards and nine touchdowns. Denver also let Julius Thomas go, which puts at least 60 targets up for grabs, but people have set their expectations way too high.
New head coach Gary Kubiak emphasizes the running backs and tight ends in his offense. Last season with the Baltimore Ravens, his running backs combined for 450 touches (396 carries) with Justin Forsett serving as the workhorse. Owen Daniels had 79 targets in 15 games, while Crockett Gilmore and Dennis Pitta combined for 36.
Kubiak will rely heavily on C.J. Anderson, Montee Ball, Daniels, Virgil Green and Demaryius Thomas. Second-year receiver Cody Latimer will start on the outside with Sanders in the slot and while he should still play a significant role, his production this year won't be better than DeAndre Hopkins, Jordan Matthews or Allen Robinson and he doesn't offer the positional value like a running back will.
Kelvin Benjamin, Wide Receiver, Carolina Panthers
ADP: 35th Overall
The 2014 rookie wide receiver last could easily go down as one of the best the game has ever seen, Benjamin was a part of that group and has been tagged along with all of the other big name rookies and pushed into the top-20 receiver rankings for 2015. After a 73-reception, 1,000-yard and nine-touchdown season, people are clearly expecting big things from Benjamin this season.
This is one statistic that encapsulates one of the big issues some have with Benjamin going into the season. When Carolina fell behind big and was just trying to play catch up as the opposing defense lightened up to just let the clock tick down, Benjamin racked up the points. If Carolina falls behind again, maybe it's possible Benjamin feasts in garbage time. But the Panthers also drafted Devin Funchess in the second round. The rookie has great size and can line up at multiple spots; he will also certainly take targets away from Benjamin.
So why are people taking Benjamin over the likes of Hopkins, Matthews, Andre Johnson and even some running backs? It really doesn't seem to be a logical pick given the options available that offer more upside and still have a solid floor. Let someone else take Benjamin this early; don't take the chance that you are the unlucky owner who doesn't get the garbage points this season.
Drew Brees, Quarterback, New Orleans Saints
ADP: 42nd Overall
Maybe people are still falling for the allure in a name; they hear Brees and the New Orleans Saints and automatically make a connection to his 5,000-yard, 40-touchdown seasons. Sure, those days were great but like every great memory, you can't cling to it forever.
New Orleans isn't going to have Brees throw the ball 650-plus times again, there is a plan in place for a more run-oriented offense. Brees was a high-volume target, racking up points in part because of his ability, the talent around him and the number of attempts. Now for the first time since 2009 and only the second time since 2006, Brees will attempt fewer than 600 passes. With Jimmy Graham gone, Brandin Cooks the only "explosive" receiver, his targets are not what they used to be.
He is being taken around the 42nd pick, there is no value taking him in the top-45. Especially when you can land Ben Roethlisberger up to a round later, Matt Ryan two rounds later or choose between Eli Manning and Ryan Tannehill three rounds later. All three quarterbacks could have top-10 seasons and you can use that earlier pick on Jonathan Stewart, Andre Johnson or Travis Kelce.
Greg Olsen, Tight End, Carolina Panthers
ADP: 50th Overall
Outside of Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham and Travis Kelce, tight end is going to be a mess this season. There is a significant drop off in projected production after the top-three, but people still overdraft the position.
Olsen is the best example, coming off a career-high in targets (122), receptions (84) and receiving yards (1,008). He finished the season as the fourth highest-scoring tight end and it seems fantasy owners are expecting that again. But the problem is, Carolina drafted Funchess and expects him to make an impact immediately. The 6'4" receiver will line up all over the field and could easily take away more than 1/4 of Olsen's targets from last season.
Fantasy owners should look at potential production and surrounding factors that will help a player be in position for the best production possible. Olsen peaked last year, he is very unlikely to see a 1,000-yard season or even be targeted 100-plus times again.
Don't waste a top-50 pick on Olsen, you are vastly overpaying for a position filled with inconsistency outside of the big three. You can draft Jordan Cameron four rounds later or Zach Ertz five rounds later. Both tight ends are in positions to be major contributors this season. Unless you are landing one of the top-three tight ends, there is very little logic in drafting that mid-tier group with a top-75 pick.
Seattle Seahawks Defense/Special Teams
ADP: 62nd Overall
Year after year we see this, fantasy owners spending top-75 picks on a team defense. For the past two seasons now, the Seahawks' defense has been seen as the cream of the crop and taken with a top-75 pick. Last season, Seattle finished with the third-highest points at the position by ESPN's standard scoring. They were the No.1 defense the year prior and many blame the third-place finish on a slow start to the season. The top-three defenses finish around 180 fantasy points.
Now let's compare those 180-185 points in a season to players available in that range. C.J. Spiller has found the perfect home in New Orleans where his skills should be utilized perfectly and make him a great RB2, T.J. Yeldon will be a workhorse for the Jacksonville Jaguars' running game and you can still land Cam Newton there.
If you take the Seahawks' defense in the 60-65 range, you are looking at around 10 points per game, but your depth takes a massive hit when you have to spend your 13th or 14th round pick on a running back like Stevan Ridley, Jay Ajayi or Fred Jackson. Instead of spending that high pick on Seattle, why not draft a running back or wide receiver in the 60's and wait until Round 14 to land the Minnesota Vikings' defense. A loaded secondary, strong front-seven and Mike Zimmer as head coach combine perfectly with their first 10 games including matchups against the 49ers, Chargers, Lions (twice), Chiefs, Bears, Rams and Raiders.
Jeremy Maclin, Wide Receiver, Kansas City Chiefs
ADP: 66th Overall
Ladies and gentleman, this just isn't going to work out. Maclin had a phenomenal year for the Philadelphia Eagles last season, setting career-highs in targets (143), receptions (85), receiving yards (1,318), yards per catch (15.5) and matching a career-high with 10 touchdowns. He finished as the ninth highest-scoring receiver in fantasy.
Maclin provided WR1 numbers for fantasy owners last season, though he scored less than 10 fantasy points in eight of the 16 games. Now he arrives in Kansas City, an offense that couldn't generate a single receiving touchdown for its receivers last season. Maclin provides a deep threat the Chiefs badly needed, but he will have a quarterback who doesn't throw deep.
Alex Smith loves the check down passes, making short, quick throws and letting Jamaal Charles, Travis Kelce and others try and make plays. Because of Smith, this offense leans heavily on the running backs and tight ends. Maclin may be able to stretch the field, but Smith will rarely get him the ball in those situations. Maclin should see a lot of targets, but it's more than possible Maclin doesn't crack 1,000 yards or six touchdowns this season.
With Jarvis Landry, Martavis Bryant, Nelson Agholor and Allen Robinson going at least a round after Maclin, people drafting him don't have the excuse that he was the best receiver available to them. Look past his numbers last season and recognize the fantasy-constricting situation he is in now.
Kevin White, Wide Receiver, Chicago Bears
ADP: 84th Overall
It's unfathomable to think people would be drafting White this high in standard, re-draft leagues but the proof is in the pudding. White is going ahead of Allen Robinson, Charles Johnson and John Brown. Receivers who will be featured targets for their team and have been practice, while White will continue to miss training camp with a heel injury.
Even when White returns to the field, which could be after the regular season has started, he needs time to adjust to the NFL, get up to speed with the Bears' offense and develop chemistry with Jay Cutler. Meanwhile Robinson is Jacksonville's top receiver, has shined in camp and has chemistry with Blake Bortles. Johnson has been Teddy Bridgewater's go-to target since last season and Brown has been talked up by head coach Bruce Arians and quarterback Carson Palmer.
There's no reason to draft White over any of the three receivers mentioned in re-draft leagues. Brown, Johnson and Robinson are all in much better position to produce this season and also offer some major upside. Don't make the mistake of drafting White above them; there are better options available.
Darren McFadden, Running Back, Dallas Cowboys
ADP: 86th Overall
It was hard to believe when it showed up on the screen. McFadden is still a top-100 pick by the latest consensus ADP. Some will give the argument that it's just taking a flier on a Cowboys' running back that will run behind the sensational Dallas' offensive line.
But the problem is, not only is McFadden not even the best running back on the team, once again he can't even get on to the field. His career, especially the past three years has been riddled with injuries and he has missed training camp with a bad hamstring. He won't practice for the foreseeable and his track record has given no reason to believe he will magically heal and stay healthy for the rest of the season.
Using a draft pick on McFadden is questionable, spending a Top-100 pick on him might require a sanity check. McFadden has a higher ADP than Chris Ivory, Ameer Abdullah, Doug Martin and Alfred Blue. This needs to stop; McFadden is certainly below their category.