The 2013 NFL draft class might not have come into the league with as much hoopla surrounding it as the previous draft class did, especially from the skill positions, but there have been a ton of surprises.
Today's article is going to focus on the top-10 fantasy football rookies through the first 11 weeks of the season. Interestingly enough, only one first-round pick will find himself on this list. That's what we are talking about when we indicate that there have been a tremendous amount of surprises.
Note: Projected statistics indicate what each player is currently on pace to finish the season. The algorithm is rather simple. I have divided individual statistics by the amount of games each rookie has played then multiplied that number by the amount of games said player will likely finish the season playing.
1. Giovani Bernard, Running Back, Cincinnati Bengals
Projected Statistics: 4.4 average, 675 rushing yards, 61 receptions, 501 yards and 10 total touchdowns
As the No. 10 fantasy running back, Bernard has to sit atop all rookie fantasy rankings. Despite attempting less than 10 rush attempts per game, Gio is averaging nearly 107 total yards per game.
A lot of this has to do with the 42 receptions he has recorded through 11 games, which ranks second on the Bengals.
Once offensive coordinator Jay Gruden makes the intelligent decision to field Bernard more than veteran BenJarvus Green-Ellis, he should easily be a top-five running back in fantasy circles.
The larger question as it relates to Bernard is where he stands when it comes to dynasty startups. The likes of Adrian Peterson and LeSean McCoy will surely top those rankings once the offseason hits, but there is a cluster mess of other running back who could vie for the third spot.
With C.J. Spiller seemingly regressing due to injuries and Doug Martin out for the season after a below-average fantasy season, others may stake claim to being a top-three dynasty running back. Bernard is most definitely one of them.
2. Eddie Lacy, Running Back, Green Bay Packers
Projected Statistics: 4.0 average, 1,160 rushing yards, 27 receptions, 183 yards and eight total touchdowns
In reality, one could make the argument that Lacy deserves the No. 1 spot here. He's been more of a consistent for the Packers than Bernard in Cincinnati simply because Mike McCarthy and Co. understand how to utilize talent. With that said, he's tallied less than 200 more total yards on 44 more touches than Bernard. In addition, he has put up less touchdowns through 11 weeks.
Lacy is now Green Bay's unquestioned No. 1 running back and should find himself putting up better numbers down the stretch when Aaron Rodgers returns from injury. He's averaging nearly 4.5 yards per touch and 21 touches per game. That's a work-horse running back if I have ever seen one.
3. Zac Stacy, Running Back, St. Louis Rams
Projected Statistics: 4.2 average, 940 rushing yards, 28 receptions, 170 yards and seven total touchdowns
As the third-best rookie through 11 weeks, Stacy only touched the ball one time in the Rams' first four games and is still on pace to put up over 1,100 yards and seven scores. Barring circumstances beyond the control of the running back and his franchise, Stacy will surely be the primary ball carrier entering the 2014 season. If so, he's going to be a top-10 fantasy option. He has put up 68-plus yards in each of the six games that he has seen extended action and has scored three touchdowns in his last two games.
4. Terrance Williams, Wide Receiver, Dallas Cowboys
Projected Statistics: 46 receptions, 797 yards and eight touchdowns
Despite recent struggles (three receptions, 54 yards and one touchdown over the last two games), Williams has been the No. 1 rookie receiver this season, mainly because he's on pace to tally eight touchdowns compared to five for Allen (more on him below).
The Baylor product has already taken over for Miles Austin as the Cowboys' No. 2 receiver behind Dez Bryant and will only see his numbers increase as he becomes more comfortable with quarterback Tony Romo.
With all this said, Williams provides limited fantasy upside moving forward.
He's not going to be a true WR1 until/if Bryant leaves the Cowboys following the 2014 season, which is unlikely to happen.
5. Keenan Allen, Wide Receiver, San Diego Chargers
Projected Statistics: 68 receptions, 1,089 yards and five touchdowns
Take away a limited amount of touchdowns, and Allen would easily find himself in the top three of this list. As it is, he's going to have to start making more of an impact in the red zone before seriously being considered a WR1 option moving forward. The CAL product has struggled to an extend inside the opponents 20, which has caused him to catch just three touchdowns on the season.
Outside of that, Allen has been a dynamic rookie receiver. He's on pace to be San Diego's first 1,000-yard receiver since Vincent Jackson in 2011 and has nealy unlimited upside. Allen is already Philip Rivers favorite target on the outside, something that isn't going to change any time soon. If you are looking for an under-the-radar WR1 option in dynasty start ups during the offseason, Allen may be a steal.
6. Le'Veon Bell, Running Back, Pittsburgh Steelers
Projected Statistics: 3.1 average, 696 rushing yards, 45 receptions, 442 yards and seven touchdowns
Yet another rookie running back that has flown under the radar thus far this season. Bell missed the first three games of the season due to injury and is averaging just over three yards per attempt this season, but has been a darn good running back since he joined the lineup in Week 4. He's averaging 87 total yards and 21 touches per game this seaso. Bell's averages need to go up if he's going to be a consistent fantasy threat, but 2012 has been a surprise considering how it started.
7. Aaron Dobson, Wide Receiver, New England Patriots
Projected Statistics: 58 receptions, 820 yards and seven touchdowns
Dobson is quietly putting together a solid rookie campaign for the Patriots. Despite struggles with drops (nine on 66 targets), the Marshall product has proven that he will be an important part of New England's passing game moving forward. He's not exactly a deep threat, but will provide Tom Brady a consistent target on intermediate routes. In fact, Dobson projects to be the beneficiary of the Patriots' passing game moving forward. Don't be surprised if he comes close to topping triple-digit receptions at some point in the not-so-distant future.
8. DeAndre Hopkins, Wide Receiver, Houston Texans
Projected Statistics: 61 receptions, 874 yards and three touchdowns
Hopkins started the season out strong, but fell off when Matt Schaub started crapping the bed. Once that happened, Hopkins saw his fantasy production fall off a great deal.
He saw it pick up again in the three games prior to last week, going for a combined 12 receptions for 199 yards and three scores before being held to a single catch on seven yards against the Houston Texans last week.
This type of inconsistency is to be expected from a rookie quarterback, especially when he doesn't have a consistently good quarterback to get him the ball.
9. Andre Ellington, Running Back, Arizona Cardinals
Projected Statistics: 6.3 average, 625 rushing yards, 42 receptions, 362 yards and five total touchdowns
Once the football world decided that Ellington needed to be fed about as much as I am sure Vince Wilfork was fed as a child, the rookie running back let us down. He put up just 13 yards on 10 touches for an average of 1.3 yards per touch. To put it into perspective, Ellington was averaging nearly eight yards per touch prior to last week. Even more dumbfounding, Arizona was going up against a Jacksonville Jaguars defense that came into the game ranked 29th against fantasy running back.
Fret not, Ellington is going to be a fantasy stud moving forward. He's going to have the benefit of playing behind Cardinals' 2013 first-round pick Jonathan Cooper next season and brings a ridiculous amount of electricity with him to the field. While not a true RB1 option, Ellington could end up being a poor man's Reggie Bush.
10. Mike Glennon, Quarterback, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Projected Statistics: 62.1 completion, 2,851 yards, 20 touchdowns and seven interceptions
If you had told me that Glennon was going to be the only quarterback on this list prior to the start of the season, I likely would have spit up beer in your face laughing. What the North Carolina State product has done at this point in his young career is amazing. He completed 20-of-23 passes with two scores and zero touchdowns against the Atlanta Falcons this past week and has been the most consistently good rookie quarterback in the NFL. In fact, Glennon has put up QB1 numbers in over half of his starts this season. Just think about that for a second.
While we have no was to determine whether the rookie is nothing more than a one-year wonder, continued strong play from him will lead him to be a sexy under-the-radar dynasty pick in start ups after the season.