Week 3 - NFL Picks

By Andrew Brand on Thursday, September 20th 2012
Week 3 - NFL Picks

Wow! Week two was a disaster. It seemed like there were upsets all over the schedule. Last minute drives that stalled, terrible officiating, missed field goals; this week was rough on many office pools.

New England missed a 42-yard field goal for the win, and lost Aaron Hernandez to an ankle injury. Seattle’s defense came up huge in an impressive win against the Cowboys. Can the ‘Hawks carry the momentum into their Monday night matchup with Green Bay? One of the winless teams thus far will get their first win this week...I guarantee it!

My week two record was an abysmal 9-7, with my lock of week pick losing, and my upset of the week pick coming through for me. Overall record thus far 20-12, and so without further ado let’s get into week three.

New York Giants at Carolina Panthers
The Giants played a tough one against Tampa, squeaking out a victory. Carolina bounced back from a dismal performance in week one and beat the New Orleans Saints. The G-men' run defense should hold up in this matchup, while home-field advantage should play a factor here. Injury updates have Hakeem Nicks and Ahmad Bradshaw out for this game. In their absence, look for Manning to target his big tight-end Martellus Bennett and watch for him to have a big game. PICK: GIANTS

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys
The Bucs defense got torched for over 500 passing yards last week. Romo must be licking his chops in anticipation of playing this banged up secondary. Playing at home, with that partisan Dallas crowd in the house that Jerry built, all equates to a big win. For all those that dropped their fantasy WR’s to run Ogletree out there, I told ya so! PICK: COWBOYS

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts
Blaine Gabbert is out and Chad Henne is under center for the Jags this week. Maurice Jones-Drew is showing his rust and perhaps a lack of fitness thus far. Jones-Drew just isn’t getting enough touches and seems to lack that explosiveness and feel for hitting the holes. Andrew Luck executed a conservative game plan against Minnesota and got his first professional victory. Let’s go ahead and make it back-to-back wins for the Colts. PICK: COLTS

Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns
C.J Spiller is a beast in the backfield for the Bills, which is a good thing because Buffalo needs all the offensive help it can get. Ryan Fitzpatrick was solid in week two against the Chiefs as he threw for two touchdowns but with only ten completions. The Buffalo defence has woken from their week one slumber and showed it is the force we all though it to be. Cleveland actually showed me something last week, and that was that they might win a game this year. It just won’t be this week. PICK: BILLS

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins
A great AFC East matchup as each team is sensing New England’s vulnerability and would love to get a game up on the Pats. Ryan Tannehill has not looked great, albeit he quarterbacked a win last week against the Raiders. If the Fins can get Reggie Bush going and keep the ground game moving the ball down field then the Dolphins can win this. In a close game; PICK: JETS

Kansas City Chiefs at New Orleans Saints
Well good news for one team, after this matchup one team will no longer be winless. The Chiefs defence has been horrific, and so has the Saints. The Saints can’t stop the run, neither can the Saints. Look for Brees to put up huge passing numbers this week at home and get the Saints back on track. PICK: SAINTS

Cincinnati Bengals at Washington Redskins
Both teams come into this week at 1-1. Both teams have played fairly well thus far. I see this as a tightly contested game coming down to a field goal at the end. I just put more faith in RGIII than I do in Andy Dalton when it comes to ability in moving the ball downfield quickly. Another game where home field advantage plays a factor. PICK: REDSKINS

St Louis Rams at Chicago Bears
The Bears are a complete mess, with more controversy swirling in the locker room than wind in the blustery Chicago air. The Rams have played two really good games, losing a close one to Detroit and then in a win against Washington. I have no confidence in Cutler emerging from this intensified media scrum of a week with a victory. Jeff Fisher will have the Rams ready to play on the road and they pull out the victory. PICK: RAMS

San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings
This game won’t be close at all as the smothering 49ers defence will bottle up Adrian Peterson at the line, limiting the big plays from scrimmage. Christian Ponder just doesn’t yet have the poise in the pocket to hang in there against this pass defense. Make it a 3-0 start for San Fran. PICK: 49ers

Detroit Lions at Tennessee Titans
The Tennessee Titans are in a bad spot if they can’t get Chris Johnson and the running game going. Bad week to try and jump-start a run game, as the Lions are fierce up the middle and on the line. Stafford guides the Lions to another victory here. PICK: LIONS

Atlanta Falcons at San Diego Chargers
Two 2-0 teams collide in San Diego, each as good as their record would indicate. I give the strength of schedule edge to Atlanta for the way they buried Kansas City on the road and then completely confused Manning and the Bronco’s on Monday night. San Diego hasn’t yet been tested as the Raiders and Titans are bottom-feeders. I give the edge to the hot team off an impressive victory. PICK: FALCONS

Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals
Another battle of the undefeated, say what? Arizona undefeated? Victories against Seattle and their stingy defence and New England and their potent offence have given them two impressive victories. Philadelphia is the only team to start a season 2-0 after winning both games by a single point. I’m thinking that Arizona, at some point has to realize they aren’t as good as their record, but let’s keep the dream alive. PICK: CARDINALS

Pittsburgh Steelers at Oakland Raiders
Carson Palmer has played better than most expected, but loses to San Diego and Miami have exposed a weak running game and unreliable receivers. Something to keep in mind is that both loses were blow outs, so Palmer padded his throwing stats when the game was already out of reach. Palmer was pressured all day long against Miami. Pittsburgh will be bringing the house on almost every play as they don’t need to worry too much about doubling the receivers. Long day for Palmer lies ahead in this matchup. PICK: STEELERS

Houston Texans at Denver Broncos
The Atlanta defence gave Manning fits all game long. Bad news Broncos, the Texans defence is better than Atlanta’s. It is still a work in progress in Denver and had this game come in week 13, I might give the Broncos a better chance. PICK: TEXANS

New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens
New England is missing a huge part of it’s offence in Aaron Hernandez. He might not be the best player at his position on the team, but Hernandez is involved in so many offensive plays he is hard to replace. Wes Welker needs to become relevant again, particularly on third down. Baltimore is at home, and likely eagerly awaiting this matchup. Look for the Ravens defence to pressure Brady all game long and force some turnovers. PICK: RAVENS

Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks
Coming off an amazing win against the Cowboys, the Seahawks turn around and host the Packers. The Seahawks defense is going to need those same big plays from week two to keep this contest close. End of the day, Rogers is too good and the Packers defesce will come up big when it needs to. PICK: PACKERS

LOCK OF THE WEEK: STEELERS
UPSET OF THE WEEK: RAMS, too many pundits see the Bears bouncing back; I see them taking a step back in another ugly loss.
 

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