What These Wide Receiver Target Numbers Tell Us

By Vincent Frank on Tuesday, December 13th 2016
What These Wide Receiver Target Numbers Tell Us

Throughout the 2016 season, we've been doing a weekly article focusing on the top-20 fantasy receivers and where they stand as it relates to target distribution. It's a rather simple stat. The receivers are ranked according to the number of targets they receive in comparison to the number of passes thrown by their team in games they suit up in. 

While overall target numbers are more than helpful as it relates to a fantasy tool, this takes it one step further. Simply put, we check in on how much a specific offense relies on its top receivers. 

Now taking this all one step further, here's a further breakdown of said stats. 

 

Mike Evans, Consistently Good

This third-year Tampa Bay Buccaneers receiver ranks second overall in fantasy points, first in target distribution, first in targets and third in receptions. Needless to say, this has Evans ranked in the top five in fantasy consistency.

That's a tremendous point to look at as we move forward in the fantasy playoffs. He's not simply someone that's put up two huge games, riding the coattails of those performances to a questionably high fantasy ranking. 

 

Emmanuel Sanders is a Major Outlier

Emmanuel Sanders ranks third among receivers in target distribution. But he ranks just 10th in receptions and 10th in fantasy points. Most of this has to do with Denver's run-happy scheme and lackluster play at quarterback.

Though, it must be noted that Sanders has been anything but a realistic WR1 option for the vast majority of the season. He ranks outside of the top 30 in consistency and has put up 21.8 percent of his fantasy points in two outings. 

 

Demaryius Thomas Isn't 

Thomas may rank below Sanders in targets, target distribution, receiving yards and fantasy points. This would seem to suggest that Sanders is the better fantasy option. But that's in no way the case. As to where his teammate ranks outside of the top-30 in fantasy consistency (10-plus points), Thomas ranks second behind just Jordy Nelson. All said, Thomas has put up double-digit fantasy points in all but two games this season. 

 

Speaking of Jordy Nelson

As the No. 1 receiver in a high-volume passing attack, it shouldn't be too surprising that Nelson's metrics are otherwordly. Nelson ranks just 11th in receptions and eighth in targets. He's also 11th among receivers in fantasy distribution. This would tend to suggest Nelson is nothing more than a bottom end WR1. 

Wrong. 

Not only does he rank eighth among receivers in fantasy points, he's No. 1 overall at that position in fantasy consistency. There is a value we must place on consistency, and Jordy represents that to a T. For example, Odell Beckham Jr may rank third in fantasy points, but he's 11th in consistency. 

 

The Odell Beckham Jr Narrative

As we mentioned above, OBJ ranks third among receivers in fantasy points but is just 11th in consistency. In fact, his top-three fantasy performances this season have accounted for nearly 40 percent of his fantasy points. In his other 10 outings, OBJ has put up single-digit points four times. He's obviously still a top-flight play, but it's been hit or miss this season. 

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