Remember the San Francisco 49ers from this past season? The team that held opponents to just 17 points per game, relied on their rushing game to control the clock and had one of the most star-studded defenses outside of Seattle?
The 2014 49ers aren’t that team anymore. The defense is still strong up front, but after losing Donte Whitner in free agency and having a depleted group of cornerbacks, general manager Trent Baalke and coach John Harbaugh decided to go with a more offensive approach.
For the 49ers, this is probably the best move. They finished 30th in passing yards per game this past season despite having Anquan Boldin post a 1,000-yard year and gave Colin Kaepernick a team-friendly, but still high-paying contract in the offseason.
San Francisco signed receivers Steve Johnson, Brandon Lloyd and Jonathan Baldwin, and drafted Bruce Ellington. Also in the draft, the 49ers bolstered their already strong running game by drafting Carlos Hyde.
With a revamped offense, the 49ers are primed to take a big step forward on offense by producing more big plays and stretching the field far more. But what does that mean for fantasy? Who will get the majority of the targets/touches? Let’s take a look, position by position, of how these new offensive identity affects San Francisco’s roster from a fantasy perspective.
Colin Kaepernick
The person that benefits the most from these signings/draft picks is Kaepernick, by far. He was already a top-10 fantasy quarterback because of his ability to run.
Now, owners can expect Kaepernick’s fantasy production to start approaching the top six or seven quarterbacks because of his new weapons. He’ll be getting Michael Crabtree back from injury and keeps Boldin, who can pull down almost any pass put in his vicinity.
When Crabtree returned from injury on December 1 last season, Kaepernick’s production immediately improved. That month, his completion percentage increased to 61.7 percent, compared to 55.8 percent in November and he threw more touchdowns (seven) than in any other month. His rating also went up to 101.4, 4.3 points higher than his next highest month (October).
Johnson has a very similar skill set to Crabtree and Boldin. He’s not going to burn anyone in the secondary but he’s a great route runner and has been in the league long enough now that the 49ers won’t have to worry about him running the wrong route or making dumb mental mistakes.
Ellington will also give Kaepernick a new deep threat. Out of all the receivers, he is the quickest and to me, and although he’s just 5-foot-9, he’ll be matched up against opponent’s fourth or even fifth corner.
Kaepernick completed 14 passes last season that traveled more than 21 yards in the air, and with Ellington, that number will increase while Boldin, Johnson and Crabtree work the sidelines. And don’t forget that Vernon Davis (there’s no way he gets traded despite this training camp drama) is still on this roster, too.
With the plethora of receiving options, more rushing opportunities should open for Kaepernick out of the pocket. Defenses will have to pull a linebacker or two off the field in favor for extra defensive backs, so his four rushing touchdowns from last season will easily be matched.
The Receivers
From a strict football standpoint, this group of receivers should work well together. But it’s tough to make a case for any one of them in fantasy this season.
Davis is the only one who should be that high up at his position mainly because of the lack of fantasy talent at tight end to begin with. Boldin can still be productive, but he will turn 34 in October.
Boldin’s targets per game last season actually went up with Crabtree in the lineup (mainly because the 49ers started to throw the ball more) but Johnson and even Lloyd could take away from Boldin’s usual throw-it-up-and-get-it passes that Kaepernick threw him last season, and Ellington will be the deep threat.
Even before the signings, Bill Williamson of NFL Nation said the 49ers are likely looking to run more three-receiver sets, after finishing last in the league in snaps run with three receivers. This could quickly become a New Orleans Saints-style situation where receivers take turns having big games because there’s just not enough passes to go around.
This is still a run-first team. The 49ers finished third in the league last season in total rush attempts, fourth in 2012 and eighth in 2011.
Because of their size, Crabtree and Boldin will still be the primary red zone targets among receivers, but when they get in close, San Francisco will still likely go run-first despite the additions at receiver.
Kaepernick attempted 30 passes inside the opponent’s 10 last season (14 of them were completed), while Frank Gore had 33 carries inside the 10.
Crabtree’s average draft position, according to FantasyPros, is 19th among all receivers, the highest 49ers receiver. Because of his preexisting rapport with Kaepernick, I think that’s a fair ranking. He has the upside to score eight touchdowns and go for 1,100 yards.
Boldin (40) and Johnson (60) may both seem too low, but neither will be getting the targets they’re used to. Lloyd and Ellington are both unranked, which for Lloyd is fair but I think Ellington could be a sleeper because of his athleticism in deeper leagues.
Frank Gore
Finally, we have the running backs. While some potential owners may knock Gore because of the addition of Hyde and Kendall Hunter having another year under his belt as the backup, I think Gore’s ADP of 19th among running backs is too low.
In this new scheme, Gore has the opportunity to get close to his production from last season. Andre Ellington, Ryan Mathews and C.J. Spiller are both going ahead of Gore in drafts, giving Gore really good value.
Gore had nine games last year in which he either scored a touchdown for went for 100 yards, and had two multi-touchdown games, according to our consistency metrics (paid subscription required). He’s been in the top 10 in the league in top rushing yards for each of the past three seasons, and exceled last season despite running for just 161 yards in the month of November.
People are always going to throw Gore aside for his age, but we’ve said “This could be Gore’s last year as a productive back” for what seems like three years now. San Francisco is going to throw the ball more, but they’re not all of a sudden going to stop running the ball.
Having Ellington, Johnson and Crabtree all on the field for presumably the whole year, it will open up more opportunities for Gore, with teams having to pull more men out of the box, and as I said before, Gore will still be the primary red zone option.
Gore will still be a great RB2 option in all leagues, and barring injury, will have better fantasy years than Ellington (unknown role in the offense), Mathews (injury history) and Spiller (Fred Jackson is still stealing his touches), no matter how much the 49ers throw the ball.
- All stats were from ESPN unless otherwise noted