The Jacksonville Jaguars have been here before. They hope that's the only part of recent history that repeats itself.
The AFC South-leading Jaguars hope to avoid the sort of late collapse that torpedoed their playoff hopes a year ago, and their stretch run begins Sunday with a home game against the equally surprising Oakland Raiders.
Jacksonville (7-5) took a one-game lead over Indianapolis in the division race when the Jaguars beat Tennessee and the Colts lost to Dallas last week - the Jaguars haven't been in first place this late in the season since 1999, when they won their last division title - but they will have to reverse recent trends to finish the deal.
After a 7-5 start last season, Jacksonville lost its last four to miss the playoffs.
Another meltdown seems unlikely considering the Jags don't face a team the rest of the way with a record better than 6-6 going into this week, but with a showdown at Indianapolis looming next week, the margin for error is razor-thin.
It doesn't help that the Jaguars have to first deal with a dangerous, if inconsistent, Raiders team that is riding high after last week's 28-13 win at San Diego.
The Raiders (6-6) kept themselves in the playoff hunt by finishing the season sweep of the Chargers. They still trail Kansas City by two games in the AFC West, but they beat the Chiefs earlier this year and can claim the head-to-head tiebreaker by finishing the sweep at Arrowhead Stadium in the regular-season finale.
Oakland's running game has been its bellwether. The Raiders have averaged 202.3 rushing yards in their six wins and 95.7 rushing yards in their six losses. They haven't topped 135 yards on the ground in any of the defeats.
The Raiders gashed San Diego's defense for 251 rushing yards on 52 carries last week, as both Darren McFadden (97 yards on 19 carries) and Michael Bush (95 yards on 23 carries) had big games.
As important as establishing the run will be the Raiders' ability to slow down Jacksonville's powerful ground game.
Jaguars star Maurice Jones-Drew has topped 100 yards rushing in five straight games, including a career-high 186 yards in last week's 17-6 win at Tennessee. As a team, the Jaguars totaled a season-high 258 yards on the ground against the Titans.
Jones-Drew's big day made for a quiet afternoon for quarterback David Garrard, who completed 14 of 19 passes for 126 yards, and the Jags also shut down Tennessee's suddenly stagnant offense.
Jacksonville held Kerry Collins to 169 yards on 14-of-32 passing and intercepted him twice, and it also shut down Chris Johnson, holding him to 53 yards on 13 carries.
Jacksonville has won three of four all-time meetings between the teams, including the most recent one, a 49-11 rout at home in 2007.