2014-2015 Review
In early December, the Senators were treading water in a position outside of the playoff race and losing ground. As is typically the case, the head coach took the fall as Ottawa fired Paul MacLean on December 8th. Dave Cameron became the head coach, and the remaining 55 games of the season were nothing short of magical.
The Senators went on a 32-15-8 run over the last two thirds of the playoffs, propelled by two main factors: first, Cameron instilled a system that promoted puck possession, and the Senators saw meaningful increases in possession metrics. Second – and this is the bigger story – was the improbable run by backup goalie Andrew Hammond, who went 15 starts before recording a loss.
He finished last season with a 20-1-2 record, .941 save percentage and three shutouts, all recorded from February 16th onward. The Senators would win the race for the final wild card spot over the Bruins and Panthers, but were knocked out in the first round by Montreal.
New Additions
The Senators did not add any major pieces in the off-season, due to a combination of budget constraints and contentment with the roster. All things considered, it wasn’t a bad strategy. Not so sure about the late addition of Mark Fraser, however, though he will probably (hopefully) be relegated to the AHL.
Key Losses
Robin Lehner
Lehner suffered a concussion in mid-February, prompting Hammond’s call up to the Senators. Prior to being injured, Lehner stats were unspectacular, and the front office decided to clear up the crease by shipping Lehner to the Buffalo Sabres over the summer. He’s still just 24 years old, but there were enough question marks around him that Ottawa preferred to stick with Craig Anderson and Hammond.
Erik Condra
He doesn’t put up attention grabbing points, but Condra is a depth player that can add value in other ways. He’s off to Tampa Bay, while Ottawa will replace his spot on the third line with the likes of Milan Michalek or Chris Neil.
Biggest Strength
Top-Six Forwards
Ottawa is stacked with young talent at the forward position, but the lines haven’t always reflected the best six scorers. For whatever reason, Mike Hoffman found himself off the second line and in a depth role. Not coincidentally, the play of linemates Mika Zibanejad and Bobby Ryan tailed off without Hoffman. Hopefully Hoffman did whatever “growing up” he needed to do this offseason and will stick on the second line permanently in 2015-2016.
Rounding out the top six is the trio that makes up the first line: Clarke MacArthur, Kyle Turris, and Mark Stone. Stone drew attention down the stretch last season, his rookie year, as he lit the boxscore – and in the playoffs, the tempers of Canadiens fans – on fire. Turris has really developed into a true top center with Ottawa, giving the Senators two solid scoring lines. Oh, and don’t forget that Erik Karlsson plays like a fourth forward from the blueline.
Biggest Weakness
Goaltending
The historic streak of Andrew Hammond may have carried this team to the playoffs last season, but the biggest risk area for the Senators is still in net. Hammond is a 27 year old that had a save percentage below .900 in the AHL prior to be called up. The likelihood of Hammond coming close to the .941 he put up last season is zero.
His creasemate heading in to the season is Craig Anderson, a player that when locked in can steal games the Senators should not win. Unfortunately, the 34 year old Anderson is at the wrong age for goalies, and he has had some durability issues over the past several years, not playing more than 60 games since 2011. His health will cause Hammond to get more starts than he should receive, but then again, sharing starts could keep Anderson healthier for longer. Either way, the result is more or less the same: the Senators will be involved in their fair share of high scoring games, and the win column may not always represent their level of play.
Bottom Line
Ottawa had no business making the playoffs last year, but they did and it was a great story (Bruins fans may disagree). The odds are stacked against them this year, and while they won’t be a basement dweller in the standings, the clock has struck midnight on their Cinderella story. Expect the young forwards to make life difficult on opposing goalies, but unless Anderson stays healthy and can maintain an above average save percentage, the Senators will have some frustrating games populating their schedule throughout the year.
Fantasy Slant
Most Overrated: Andrew Hammond
I think I was pretty tough on Hammond earlier, so I won’t pile on here, but don’t expect anything close to last season from Hammond.
Most Underrated: Mike Hoffman
In his first NHL season consisting of more than a cup of coffee, Hoffman scored 27 goals and 48 points while being demoted from the second line periodically.
In addition to possessing the hands needed to finish his chances, his Corsi Relative of 6.6 at 5v5 was fourth best on the Senators, meaning he belonged in his top six role. He doesn’t get the attention teammates Erik Karlsson, Mark Stone or Bobby Ryan do, but Hoffman is strong producer that should build upon his play from last year with more consistency in 2015-2016.
Biggest Surprise: Mika Zibanejad
Centering the second line, Zibanejad is poised to improve on his 20 goal, 46 point season last year. In his age-21 season, Zibanejad improved his point total by 13 over the prior year. He has two snipers flanking him on either side in Mike Hoffman and Bobby Ryan, and Ryan should be better than the 18 goals he recorded last year. Expect Zibanejad to continue to improve this season and push for 60 points.