When every new fantasy football season comes around, there is always a heated debate in the draft room, whether in person or online, over when the first wide receiver should go off the board. For several years, that receiver was Andre Johnson from the Houston Texans, who would always find some way to slip in to the first round of most drafts.
Johnson, who has led the league in yards twice and yards per game three times, has since been on the decline, and receivers such as Dez Bryant have been catching up to Johnson in fantasy rankings. Bryant, who has only been in the league for three years, had a career year in 2012 and is looking to build his relationship with Dallas Cowboys’ quarterback Tony Romo to finally get the Cowboys into the postseason. Both receivers are clear No. 1 options, but with Bryant’s stock rising and Johnson’s falling, fantasy owners must decide which player should go off the board first.
Dez Bryant, Dallas Cowboys
Coming out of Oklahoma State in 2010 at the age of 22, Bryant was highly touted, despite the questions surrounding his character. While Bryant has yet to be suspended in the NFL for any reason, injuries have kept him from completing full seasons in two of his three seasons with the Cowboys. When he was finally able to stay healthy in 2012, he quickly became Romo’s favorite target, catching 92 balls for 1,382 yards and 12 touchdowns.
Bryant was running better routes, and was far more explosive than he was during his first two seasons in the league. Dallas is looking to finally get back in the playoffs after a three-year drought, and Bryant will have to lead them there, along with Romo. Bryant will once again be the No. 1 receiving option on the team, with Miles Austin’s inconsistency and a rushing game that is constantly in flux.
Bryant’s yards, touchdowns, receptions and yards per reception have all gone up every year he’s been in the NFL, leaving conventional wisdom to say his numbers are bound to at least stay the same this season. NFL.com’s first fantasy mock draft of the season has Bryant going a full round higher than Andre Johnson, and rightfully so. If he can avoid the injury bug and stay out of trouble, Bryant has the raw talent to put himself in position to be a top three fantasy receiver by year’s end.
Projected Stats (16 games): 90 receptions, 1,200 yards, 12 touchdowns
Andre Johnson, Houston Texans
Although it seems like Johnson hasn’t been in the NFL for all that long, 2013 will be his 11th season in the league. Since his rookie year in 2003, Johnson has been one of the top receivers and is a perennial No. 1 or 2-ranked receiver every year. However, 32 is never a good age for a receiver and Johnson’s best years are surely him. And the preseason rankings show that. The same NFL.com mock draft had Johnson going in the late third round, the 11th receiver taken in the draft behind such names as Percy Harvin and Demaryius Thomas.
Fox Sports’ mock draft has Johnson going a little earlier in the third round, but still puts him behind Bryant and Brandon Marshall. If he can stay healthy, though, it’s almost a guarantee that he’ll finish with better numbers than Marshall, Thomas or Harvin. Last season seems to be a distant memory in some fantasy experts’ mind, given that Johnson caught 112 passes for 1,598 yards. Although he only scored four touchdowns, he was competing against Arian Foster for those touches around the goal line.
The bottom line is, if Johnson is healthy he’s going to put up big numbers. But if he has a year like he did in 2011 when he only played seven games and finished the year with 492 yards, he’s going to be a disappointment. With his age, it’s pretty unlikely that he’ll put up the same numbers he did last year, but Johnson deserves more love than he’s getting.
Projected Stats (16 games): 95 receptions, 1,300 yards, six touchdowns
In Comparison
Bryant seems to be a “sexy” pick this year in early mock drafts, but it’s hard to argue with Johnson’s history. However, in terms of fantasy numbers, Bryant is going to get more touchdowns than Johnson, since there’s no Foster on the Cowboys and Romo is going to look for Bryant in the red zone. The yards and receptions will likely be a wash between the two, so Bryant’s higher chance at scoring touchdowns puts him over the top.