The past four weeks have certainly been eventful for the New England Patriots. First, the Pats made an incredibly unexpected move by signing free-agent quarterback Tim Tebow to bring him into their training camp. Just as the Tebow dust was settling a few weeks later, their now former tight end Aaron Hernandez was arrested and charged with murder.
New England quickly distanced themselves from Hernandez, most recently hosting a jersey exchange at their pro shop that allowed fans to turn in their Hernandez jerserys for another player’s for free. With the Hernandez incident mostly behind them, the Patriots will start focusing on the season, and quarterback Tom Brady will have to figure out who to throw to now without Hernandez, Wes Welker and possibly his other tight end Rob Gronkowski.
This is eDraft’s 2013 fantasy preview for the New England Patriots.
Tom Brady - Quarterback
No matter what happens in New England, Tom Brady will always be Tom Brady. Since 2002, in every year except 2008 when he only played in half a game before losing the rest of his season to injury, Brady has never thrown for less than 3,529 yards in a season and has thrown over 34 touchdowns in the last three seasons.
The Patriots are always going to have Brady as the center of their offense, attempting 474 passes or more every year as a starter. Most fans are afraid that because of the loss of Welker and Hernandez and possibly Gronkowski, Brady won’t be as effective. But anyone remember New England’s championship year in 2004? Brady’s top receivers that year were David Givens, David Patten and Deion Branch. So who’s to say he can’t put up the same numbers as last season with Danny Amendola and Michael Jenkins? Brady probably won’t be a top two quarterback with Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers still in the league, but this isn’t the year to push him aside.
Projected stats (16 games): 4,900 yards, 35 touchdowns, seven interceptions
Stevan Ridley - Running Back
In his first season as a full-time starter in the NFL, Ridley excelled in the Patriots offense, rushing for 1,263 yards and 12 touchdowns. The 24-year-old has only been in the league for two seasons, but looks to be the starter and possibly the every-down back for the Pats.
He surprisingly never catches the ball out of the backfield, but he still got 290 carries last season. When opposing defenses are so focused on stopping Brady and the passing game, Ridley puts those touches to good use. But we weary of any New England running back, given that six different players have led the team in rushing yards in the past seven seasons. So a drop-off in numbers for Ridley wouldn’t be surprising. Head coach Bill Belichick loves to have a running back-by-committee backfield, but Ridley should be around the 1,000-yard mark this season, given his only competition is Shane Vereen who should only be drafted as a handcuff.
Projected stats (16 games): 280 attempts, 1,080 yards, 11 touchdowns
Danny Amendola - Wide Receiver
Beginning his first season in New England, the biggest concern for Amendola is his health. In his four seasons in the NFL, Amendola has only played in one full season, missing two games in 2009, 15 in 2011 and five in 2012. But when he was in the lineup, Amendola has produced, even on the lowly St. Louis Rams.
Last season he caught 63 passes in 11 games for 666 yards but only three touchdowns. However, he does have the skills to be a top receiver, and his numbers should certainly get a boost having Brady throw to him rather than Sam Bradford. Amendola will be filling Welker’s role as the possession receiver, so don’t expect him to score on any 50 yard catches, but do expect him to get a lot of catches for 80 yards or so every game. Last season, the Pats had their best completion percentage on passes thrown between 21 and 30 yards, according to ESPN, and 11 of Brady’s touchdowns came within that distance, which will be where Amendola shines in 2013.
Projected stats (16 games): 90 receptions, 1,100 yards, seven touchdowns
Michael Jenkins - Wide Receiver
Jenkins is certainly more experienced in the NFL than Amendola, and has historically been able to avoid injuries. Besides the two seasons in 2010 and 2011 when he only played in 11 games, he has played in at least 14 games in every season of his 10-year NFL career. Jenkins has spent time with the Atlanta Falcons and most recently two years with the Minnesota Vikings, and now finds himself as the No. 2 option at receiver for New England.
Jenkins has never been more than an average receiver, catching 40 balls last season for 449 yards and two touchdowns, but as previously stated, Brady has made above-average receivers out of average ones in the past. Jenkins isn’t much of a deep threat, not catching a single pass over 30 yards in 2012. Even in Atlanta with a much better Matt Ryan throwing to him rather than Christian Ponder in Minnesota, he only caught three passes that were longer than 21 yards. Expect Jenkins to catch mid-range passes from Brady while Gronkowski (hopefully) splits the field.
Projected stats (16 games): 60 receptions, 700 yards, five touchdowns
Rob Gronkowski- Tight End
Again, Gronkowski’s season all depends upon if he can even get healthy by the start of the season. After just getting out of back surgery about three weeks ago, the Patriots likely won’t have Gronk participate in contact drills for all of training camp, according to CBS’s Jason La Confora, and it will be difficult for New England to pinpoint an exact date of return for the tight end. Gronkowski had a breakout year in 2011, catching 90 passes for 1,327 yards and 17 touchdowns, a NFL record for tight ends.
If he’s healthy, Gronk is going to get major fantasy points. But that’s a huge question. When he is supposed to be resting, Gronkowski is often off partying, which could be contributing to his injury issues. But if he’s able to play 16 games this year, he’s the best tight end in the NFL.
Projected stats (16 games): 80 receptions, 950 yards, 13 touchdowns
Jake Ballard - Tight End
Even if Gronkowski is healthy, Ballard may be a decent option as a fantasy tight end this season. The Patriots had grown accustomed to running a two tight end formation on almost every offensive play, and Ballard will be the second tight end with no Hernandez. Ballard missed the entire 2012 season on injured reserve, but had a decent rookie campaign with the New York Giants, averaging 15.9 yards per catch and scoring four touchdowns in 14 games.
If Gronkowski isn’t able to stay healthy, he’ll be the No. 1 option, and Brady will likely target Ballard with a lack of quality options at receiver. Given the amount of time that Gronkowski has before the start of the season, we’ll give him the benefit of the doubt and say that Ballard will be the No. 2 tight end in New England, but he should certainly be worth a pickup.
Projected stats (16 games): 50 catches, 700 yards, five touchdowns