Every season there always seems to be the rookie player who seems to shoot up fantasy draft boards prior to the start of the season. This year, that honor falls to Montee Ball, the rookie running back for the Denver Broncos out of Wisconsin.
Ball’s value has climbed during the offseason, especially after Denver released last year’s starting running back Willis McGahee. Now, Ball is a top 20 running back, going No. 40 overall as the No. 20 running back according to FantasyPros’ average draft position. Ball is just as sought-after in analysts’ mock drafts, going in the sixth round in Fox Sports’ expert mock draft, which was even before McGahee’s release.
However, fantasy owners who select Ball as their No. 2 back should expect to be disappointed by the end of the season.
First, there is the issue of Ball’s wear and tear entering the NFL. As it is, the average running back has a short career in NFL, especially in the modern game. Heading into his rookie year in Denver, Ball carried the ball 918 times in his collegiate career, with an outstanding 356 carries alone coming in his senior season with the Badgers. That’s even more than Arian Foster who led the league in carries last season with 351 attempts.
Now that doesn’t spell direct failure for Ball, since players like Ray Rice and Marshawn Lynch have succeeded in the NFL with a large volume of carries, but it does hurt Ball’s chance of being the feature back in Denver and head coach John Fox will be more likely to spread the ball around in the backfield rather than hone in on just Ball.
Potential candidates to split carries with Ball in Denver include Ronnie Hillman, who has already been rumored to platoon with Ball and Knowshon Moreno, who has injury problems but can still be productive when he’s in the lineup. Because of Moreno’s injury issues, Hillman is the most likely candidate to be the starter for the Broncos.
Hillman has already told the Denver Post that he plans to be to the No. 1 guy in the backfield for the Broncos, and that he will compete for the job in training camp.
“Come the opener, I want to be the guy back there,” Hillman told the Post. “I can’t lie. I want it to be me and I’m pushing to be that guy.”
Hillman doesn’t have much NFL experience, only carrying the ball 85 times for 330 yards in his rookie year for Denver last season but he is a bruising back who can disappear behind the offensive line, standing at only 5’10.” But fantasy owners seem to completely overlook that possibility, going as the No. 135 player overall via the ADP, way behind Ball.
These potentially inaccurate predictions also don’t factor in Moreno, who ran for 525 yards and four tochdowns last season. Moreno could be the change-of-pace guy who bounces the ball outside the tackles as opposed to Ball who is a standard runner and likes to stay between the tackles. Moreno certainly has a chance to pick up 130-plus carries in this offense as long as he’s healthy, yet he is going way below Ball as the No. 58 back, leaving him undrafted in standard leagues.
Judging by Fox’s record, he’s extremely likely to stick to a running back-by-committee approach, starting his third year as Denver’s coach. Just last year, McGahee, who was called the No. 1 back, ran the ball 167 times, which was only 29 more times than Moreno. Hillman picked up 85 carries as well and even Lance Ball had 42 touches.
In his last season as Carolina Panthers coach, Fox ran Jonathan Stewart 178 times, Mike Goodson 103 times and DeAngelo Williams 87 times. That sounds like a coach who doesn’t like to stick to just one guy. That was even with Jimmy Clausen in at quarterback, leaving Fox with nothing else but his running game. Ball will have to split time with two backs, as well as Peyton Manning who threw the ball 583 times last season, the seventh-largest total in the league.
Ball has the potential to be a top 30 fantasy running back, but between his mileage coming into the league and the potential to have three guys splitting carries in Denver’s backfield, owners taking him in the first five rounds will end up disappointed by year’s end.