Like so many New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts matchups of the past 15 years, you can expect a high scoring affair when Andrew Luck leads his 6-3 Indianapolis team to Foxboro to take on Tom Brady and the 6-3 Patriots. The faces on one side might be completely different, but the end result will be the same. I expect a ton of fantasy points to be accumulated between these two AFC Playoff contenders.
Time to take a gander at what this game might have to offer and the players that should have the most impact.
Andrew Luck vs Tom Brady
Much like the Peyton Manning/Brady matchups of years past, this game pits two of the top quarterbacks in the league against one another with a whole bunch on the line. New England sits in first place in the AFC East while Indianapolis maintains its position as one of the two wildcard teams in the conference.
Brady ranks fifth among quarterbacks in fantasy points, which is somewhat of a down season for him. He has, however, thrown for over 800 yards and eight touchdowns in his last three games. Those performances were against one bad pass defense in the form of the Buffalo Bills as well as two good units against the pass in the form of the New York Jets and St. Louis Rams. He goes up against a 15th ranked Indy pass defense this week.
Meanwhile, Luck has had his way as of late. He ranks fifth among quarterbacks in points over the last four weeks, compiling seven touchdowns and over 1,100 yards during that span. New England has given up an average of 285 passing yards this season, ranking it 29th in the NFL.
Both are going to provide you top tier QB1 numbers this week. They have a perfect storm of recent success and lackluster units on the other side of the ball. I am expecting over 300 total yards and multuple touchdowns from both Brady and Luck.
Stevan Ridley vs Indianapolis Colts Rush Defense
One of the primary reason that many believe New England is in a better position to win the Super Bowl this season than 2011 is the production that it has received from Stevan Ridley, a second-year running back from LSU. He ranks sixth in the NFL with over 800 rushing yards and has tallied a total of 121 fantasy points in 2012, good for No. 6 among running backs.
Indianapolis has yielded an averaged of 120 rush yards per game, ranking it in the bottom 10 in the NFL in that category. Needless to say, Ridley should have a huge advantage here.
Reggie Wayne vs New England Patriots Secondary
Historically, this has been a good matchup for New England. Wayne is averaging just 5.5 receptions and a tad over 73 yards in his 10 outings against the Patriots. That is pretty much on par or just below what the future Hall of Fame receiver has done against other opponents in his career.
That being said, the stars seem to be aligning here for Wayne. First off, he ranks second in yards and fifth in points among receivers in 2012. Extremely surprising considering Wayne's advanced age (34 on Saturday). As I mentioned before, New England ranks 29th against the pass and has yielded 19 touchdown passes in nine games this season. Obviously, Wayne is set for somewhat of a big game on Sunday.
Statistical Projections
Tom Brady: 320 yards, three touchdowns and one interception.
Andrew Luck: 300 yards, two touchdowns and one interception.
Stevan Ridley: 20 attempts, 125 yards and one touchdown.
Donald Brown: 10 attempts, 45 yards and zero touchdowns.
Wes Welker: 10 receptions, 120 yards and zero touchdowns.
Reggie Wayne: 10 receptions, 145 yards and one touchdown.
Brandon Lloyd: Two receptions, 35 yards and one touchdown.
Donnie Avery: Three receptions, 40 yards and zero touchdowns.
Rob Gronkowski: Six receptions, 75 yards and two touchdowns.
Dwayne Allen: Three receptions, 47 yards and oune touchdown.