Saturday, January 11th 2014 (8:15 ET)
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough MA
Station: CBS
Announcers: Greg Gumbel, Dan Dierdorf and Allie LaForce (sideline).
Point Spread: Patriots (-7)
Over/Under: 53.5
Expected Game-Time Weather: Too early to project, TBD
Colts Offense vs Patriots Defense | Team | PPG | Passing Yds | Rushing Yds | Total Yds | Sacks | Turnover Diff. |
| Colts | 24.4 (14) | 232.8 (17) | 108.9 (20) | 341.8 (15) | 32.0 (6) | +13 (3) |
| Patriots | 21.1 (10) | 239.0 (18) | 134.1 (30) | 373.1 (26) | 48.0 (5) | +9 (8) |
Indianapolis put up 536 yards and 28 first downs against the Kansas City Chiefs in its 45-44 wild card victory. Both represented season highs, as Andrew Luck and Co. really got rolling in the second half. Indianapolis' offense was rather inconsistent all season long, scoring less than 12 points three times, but more than 30 four different times. For his part, Luck performed better on the road than he did at home. He tallied 11 touchdowns compared to three interceptions for a quarterback rating of 86.7 away from Indianapolis. The Colts also put up 24 points per game on the road during the regular season.
Meanwhile, New England started out the season really strong on the defensive side of the ball, giving up 14 points per game in its first five outings. It's been downhill since. Opposing offenses are averaging over 24 points per game over the course of the Patriots last 11 outings. The Patriots are also giving up an average of 27 points per game at home since September.
Patriots Offense vs Colts Defense | Team | PPG | Passing Yds | Rushing Yds | Total Yds | Sacks | Turnover Diff. |
| Patriots | 27.8 (3) | 255.4 (10) | 129.1 (10) | 384.5 (7) | 40 (12) | +9 (8) |
| Colts | 21.0 (24) | 231.9 (20) | 125.2 (26) | 357.1 (20) | 42 (11) | +13 (3) |
A lot has been made about the losses that New England has endured over the course of the last calendar year. Two of its primary targets, Rob Gronkowski (ACL) and Aaron Hernandez (prison) are not with the team right now. That takes away 100-plus receptions, 1,200-plus yards and 16 touchdowns from a season ago. Tom Brady was still able to get things rolling to an extent with a makeshift supporting cast. Rookies such as Aaron Dobson and Kenbrell Thompkins combined for 69 receptions and nearly 1,000 yards. Meanwhile, the three-headed running back monster New England employs went for a combined 2,280 total yards and 18 touchdowns. New England averaged 34.5 points in its final six regular season home games.
Indianapolis has been good away from home, at least on the defensive side of the ball...give or take a couple games. Outside of a two-game stretch against the Arizona Cardinals and Cincinnati Bengals on the road, the Colts yielded just 14.5 points per game in their other six outings.
Key Matchups
Donald Brown and Trent Richardson vs Patriots Run Defense: Expect Brown to get a bulk of the carries in this one. He put up 102 yards on 15 touches against Kansas City last week and is averaging about 80 yards per game in his last four outings. As it relates to Richardson, well...New England was the third-worst rush defense in the NFL during the regular year, yielding over 130 yards per game. The loss of Vince Wilfork to a season-ending injury early on really impacted this unit. The Patriots gave up an average of 150 rushing yards per game in their final six regular season outings.
Andrew Luck vs Tom Brady: Okay, they might not be matching up...but. This is going to be one hell of a quarterback battle come Saturday night. Luck is currently playing at the top of his game, while Brady is coming off one of his worst statistical seasons. In the end, this matchup may not decide the outcome of the game. I could reasonably envision a scenario where Luck outplays Brady, but the Patriots still win.
T.Y. Hilton vs Aqib Talib: One of the best cover corners in the NFL going up against a second-year receiver who is coming into his own. Hilton has put up 24 receptions for 379 yards in his last two games. Meanwhile, Talib gave up less than 600 receiving yards all year. Something has to give here.
Statistical Leaders
Indianapolis Colts
Andrew Luck: 60.2 completion, 3,822 passing yards, 377 rushing yards, 27 total touchdowns, nine interceptions and a 87.0 rating
Donald Brown: 537 rushing yards, 27 receptions, 214 yards and eight total touchdowns
Trent Richardson: 458 rushing yards, 28 receptions, 265 yards and four total touchdowns
T.Y. Hilton: 82 receptions, 1,803 yards and five touchdowns
Coby Fleener: 52 receptions, 608 yards and four touchdowns:
New England Patriots
Tom Brady: 60.5 completion, 4,343 passing yards, 25 touchdowns, 11 interceptions and a 87.3 rating
Stevan Ridley: 4.3 average, 773 rushing yards and seven touchdowns
LeGarrette Blount: 5.0 average, 772 rushing yards and seven touchdowns
Shane Vereen: 4.7 average, 208 rushing yards, 47 receptions, 427 yards and four touchdowns
Julian Edelman: 105 receptions, 1,056 yards and six touchdowns
Danny Amendola: 54 receptions, 633 yards and two touchdowns
Aaron Dobson: 37 receptions, 519 yards and four touchdowns